Gauteng - State of the Province Report February 2010

Similar to the Western Cape, Gauteng has experienced a high degree of leadership turnover over the past two years which has impacted on approval ratings for the Provincial Government and Premier.

"In hindsight it seems that the ANC NEC's decision to replace Paul Mashatile with Nomvula Mokonyane as Premier of Gauteng was the correct one. Although Mashatile had a difficult role to fulfil in a short space of time, Mokonyane has had a positive impact and the Gauteng public seem much more positive about the performance of the Provincial Government and the Premier," said Helen Macdonald, a political analyst at Ipsos Markinor.

Summary of findings:

Performance ratings for both the Premier and the Provincial Government have improved since Nomvula Mokonyane was chosen by the ANC to lead the province.

Much as expected, support for the Provincial Government is especially high amongst ANC supporters while DA supporters are far less positive. Since the election in April 2009, the ANC seems to have consolidated its support base in the province.

The above are selected results from a nationally representative study conducted by Ipsos Markinor in November 2009.  The sample is 3 374 adults of 18 years and older, the coverage is national and the margin of error is between 0.7 and 1.7%.  The sample accurately mirrors the South African population.

Performance of the Premier

Performance ratings for the Premier have improved drastically since the changeover post-election from Paul Mashatile to Nomvulo Mokonyane in May 2009. This hugely improved job performance rating will vindicate the ANC NEC, who despite sharp criticism from the ANCYL, decided to replace Mashatile with Mokonyane, the former Housing MEC and member of the Provincial Legislature since 1994. The ANCYL were strongly in favour of retaining Mashatile but the Gauteng public were clearly not happy with his job performance and only 35% approved of his performance as Premier just prior to the 2009 election. The months preceding the election were fairly unstable ones for the Gauteng government as Premier Mbhazima Shilowa resigned from office and left the ANC to join COPE in protest against Mbeki's recall. Mashatile replaced him on the 7^th of October 2008 and held the post for just seven months until the ANC NEC's decision to replace him with Mokonyane. Shilowa's sudden departure followed by Mashatile's short term as Premier and then the unhappiness over his replacement certainly impacted on job performance ratings.

Performance of Provincial Government

Performance ratings of the Provincial Government have also improved drastically following the uncertain months after Shilowa's resignation. As of November 2009, 60% of the citizens of Gauteng approved of the ANC led Provincial Government. ANC supporters are particularly enthusiastic while DA supporters are fairly negative - only 36% say the Provincial Government is performing well. DA supporters are also pessimistic about Mokonyane's job performance and only a quarter believe she is going a good job. Whilst supporters of the DA are still negative, their support for both the Premier and Provincial Government has improved from May to November 2009.

Performance of Premier and Provincial Government November 2009

The Gauteng Provincial Government on the whole receives a slightly higher rating than its Premier. The only other province where this trend is evident is in the North West. The Provincial Government is rated on a par with that of the Western Cape (each province is rated by its own citizens).

Statement issued by Ipsos-Markinor, February 19 2010

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