IRR latest polling: 'Opportunities or Bust' is emerging as the theme of 2024 ballot battle

28 November 2023

South Africans are looking for political parties that set out a clear, non-racial, pragmatic agenda capable of delivering opportunities to build a better life.

This is a key theme of the latest opinion polling on the state of race relations, policy preferences, and politics in South Africa by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), according to IRR Head of Strategic Communications Hermann Pretorius.

Key takeaways are that:

race relations in South Africa are sound overall;

South Africans prefer appointments being made on merit rather than race on the sports field and in the classroom, and

South Africans say creating jobs and fighting corruption are much more important as government priorities than “racism”, or “land reform”.

Says Pretorius: "A key theme from the data is that of opportunity. South Africans are pragmatic and non-racial, but experience anxiety when opportunities are scarce."

Politically, the state of play is in flux. The results suggest both the ANC and the DA have improved their position nationally, with 46.5% of respondents (up from 41.8% in 2022) choosing the ANC, and 26.1% (up from 24.2%) choosing. The results suggest the EFF’s support has dipped: 11.6% of respondents chose the EFF over 15.5% in 2022. However, the IFP is the clear political standout, having nearly doubled its standing from 5.1% in the 2022 survey to 9.4% in the 2023 poll.

"We are in coalition country," adds Pretorius, "and the parties of South Africa must now see their task as one of setting out a clear, non-racial, pragmatic agenda to deliver what South Africans desire: opportunities to build a better life with a state as partner rather than master.

"With the 2024 elections inching closer, there is everything to play for. Most active political leaders – with the exception of Julius Malema, who is a known and mostly disliked quantity – have either significant political capital, like President Ramaphosa, or a significant opportunity to earn political capital. It will come down to message, and to the visibility and credibility of those vying for votes to convince South Africans that creating opportunities is the driving force as we head into election season."

The demographically representative polling sample numbered 604 participants with a standard margin of error of 3.99% at a 95% confidence level. The survey was conducted in October 2023.

Polling data is contained in the attached pdf, which was the basis of an online briefing today.

Issued by Herman Pretorius, IRR Head of Strategic Communications, 28 November 2023