Breaking Point in the Life of the ANC
The ANC has reached a breaking point, the position where ANC members of parliament must decide whether to support their president or vote him out. Knowing he is extremely corrupt, do they support the president inTuesday’s motion of no confidence, and keep him in power together with the Gupta family to continue looting the state to infinity - or do they stop him by voting with opposition parties to oust him? Which way to go for ANC MPs?
ANC Executive Failure to Reign in President Zuma
Failure of the ANC national executive committee to reign in president Zuma, to discipline him according ANC disciplinary code, has brought us to this breaking point. The ANC NEC is supposed to protect and guard ANC in order to safeguard it against internal and external enemies.
This NEC, however, appears to be part of the internal enemy within the ANC, and instead of protecting ANC is actually killing it. There are an estimated 20% of the NEC who are not captured, but paralysed. These NEC members appear to be helpless and clueless, they do not know what to do – and as such, the ANC is being killed in front of their eyes. Instead of taking responsibility to remove Zuma from office in the same way that the previous NEC removed Thabo Mbeki from office, they are dilly–dallying while South Africa burns.
ANC Backbenchers’ Time of Reckoning
Realising that the NEC is paralysed and captured, ANC MPS are aware that they are the last line of defence, that they have this critical responsibility, and that they need to vote with opposition parties to remove Zuma so as to save the ANC and the country from this mafia state takeover.
Under ANC constitution and policies this was not supposed to be their responsibility but the NEC’s responsibility. Now the NEC - aware that ANC backbenchers might vote with opposition parties, disregarding the position of the NEC - are panicking, and intimidating MPs not to support the motion of no confidence initiated by opposition parties.
The question is, why the NEC did not remove Zuma. The answer lies in the 80% of them who are captured by the Guptas: some are lieutenants of the Guptas, others outright puppets of the Guptas. Now they want ANC MPs also to become puppets of the Guptas like them. Sorry, NEC members! You are not worthy to be copied; puppets are not copied but can only be imitated.
When Zuma is voted out, What Happens?
What happens if ANC MPs vote with the opposition parties to remove Zuma?
If that happens, Zuma will vacate office and the national speaker of parliament, Baleka Mbete, will act as president for a period of three months, within which time the National Assembly must elect the new president. Zuma’s cabinet will be dissolved and the new president will appoint his or her new cabinet.
What guarantees are there as to who would be the next president? Nobody knows. It can only be decided by the supporters of Zuma within the Guptas’ machinery operating in parliament. There are no guarantees.
Worst case Scenario - Zuma is kept in Power
The worst-case (but most likely) scenario is that the ANC MPs vote against the motion of no confidence, and that Zuma and the Guptas remain in power. In the ANC’s elective conference in December, Zuma will then most likely hand over power as ANC president to his former wife Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma in a Guptas’ orchestrated election. Most ANC MPs and ANC leaders are likely to resign from the ANC. State capture will be partially complete, with the judiciary as the only component of the state not yet captured.
South Africa will become a full scale mafia state, with assassinations throughout the country, as already rife in KwaZulu-Natal.
When voting ANC out of Power is the only Solution to save South Africa
The only salvation in that case will be the general election in May 2019, when most ANC supporters will no longer vote for the ANC. When the ANC becomes a feudal dynasty and power is being transferred from husband to wife, it will have lost all the democratic and national credentials of its founding fathers such as Pixley kaIzaka Seme, Sefako Makgatho and DR WB Rubusana.
This will mark a watershed in the history of SA, as Africa’s oldest liberation movement crumbles down to corruption.
We need to begin discussion of a longer term political programme that can analyse the sources of the problem in order to mobilise the people to save South Africa – and the ANC – from this fate.
Omry Makgoale is a rank and file member of the ANC. These are his personal views.