OPINION

ANC wins 17 out of 21 by-elections

IFP consolidates support in KZN, COPE draws fifth of vote in Northern and Eastern Cape

JOHANNESBURG - The African National Congress won 17 out of 21 seats contested in by-elections across the country on Wednesday. It had held all the seats previously. The Inkatha Freedom Party won four seats in KwaZulu-Natal, winning one off the ANC by a narrow margin. COPE meanwhile managed to draw a fifth of the vote of the wards it contested in the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape. The new party failed to make any real breakthrough.

Nine ward seats were contested in the Eastern Cape. Eight in the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality (Port Elizabeth) and one in Qumbu. Although the ANC had held all these seats previously in eight of the nine the former ANC councillor stood as a candidate for COPE. The ANC's share of the vote declined in eight of the nine wards. It won an average of 70,9% of the vote across all the wards, down from 81,2% in 2006. COPE drew an average of 19,1% of the vote. Voter turnout averaged 47,6% across these wards, down from 59,1% in the 2006 local government elections.

Five wards were contested in the Northern Cape: three in the Nama Khoi municipality (Springbok) and two in the Ga-Segonyana municipality (Kuruman). The ANC had held all five seats previously. It had averaged 64,6% of the vote across these wards in the 2006 local government elections. This declined to 57,5% on Wednesday. COPE's share of the vote averaged 22,7% across these five wards. In the 15 by-elections held in the Northern Cape in late January (see here) the ANC had won an average of 54,1% of the vote (down from 73,3% in the 2006 election). COPE had won an average of 30,1% of the vote in each ward. One difference was that in most of these wards the previous ANC councillor was standing as the COPE candidate.

In Kwa-Zulu Natal the IFP - which had lost two by-elections to the ANC in the province in late January - held onto three wards. It narrowly won a fourth from the ANC in the Imbababazane municipality (Loskop) with 50,6% of the vote. The IFP's premier candidate for the province, Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi said in a statement, "If you wanted an indication of the mood on the ground in the run-up to the general election, you got it. The wave is turning our way."

In the North West in the Madibeng municipality (Brits) the ANC candidate won 86,5% of the vote to the COPE candidates 11,03%. In Moses Kotane the ANC won with 51,8% of the vote to the 45,6% received by an independent. And in Steve Tshwete municipality (Middelburg) in Mpumalanga the ANC won with 92,7% of the vote to COPE's 6,34%.

In a statement the ANC said it was "satisfied" with the results of the by-elections. The party was pleased, it stated, "that its average share of the vote across all 21 by-elections is higher than in the last round of by-elections in January."

TABLE OF RESULTS IN THREE PROVINCES:

Northern Cape
Municipality 2006 % vote % poll ANC COPE ID DA % poll
NAMA KHOI [Springbok] ANC 47.3 50.9 52.5 28.9 18.6 53.0
NAMA KHOI [Springbok] ANC 54.9 53.2 37.8 21.8 15.3 25.1 62.2
NAMA KHOI [Springbok] ANC 66.1 72.1 44.0 29.3 26.7 78.8
GA-SEGONYANA [Kuruman] ANC 68.9 43.5 75.1 16.4 48.2
GA-SEGONYANA [Kuruman] ANC 85.9 49.4 78.1 17.2 46.8
  Ave 64.6 53.8 57.5 22.7     57.8
Eastern Cape
Municipality 2006 % vote % poll ANC COPE UDM DA % poll
EC156 - Mhlontlo [Qumbu] ANC 92.4 57.2 80.5 15.2 4.4 51.7
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 93.0 60.3 68.1 28.3 52.1
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 95.5 61.2 72.5 26.3 46.8
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 52.1 62.7 81.8 15.9 0.5 1.4 54.1
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 95.5 51.9 67.8 29.5 0.5 1.1 39.5
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 64.5 50.5 51.1 13.5 6.4 25.3 36.9
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 95.4 69.6 83.0 16.0 0.6 56.4
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 51.9 50.6 47.8 15.0 33.0 40.9
NMA - Nelson Mandela Bay [PE] ANC 90.2 68.1 85.5 11.9 0.3 50.7
  Ave 81.2 59.1 70.9 19.1     47.7
KwaZulu Natal
Municipality 2006 % vote % poll ANC IFP % poll
KZN236 - Imbabazane [Loskop] ANC 48.6 56.2 49.4 50.6 51.7
KZN272 - Jozini [Mkuze] IFP 76.3 48.2 30.4 69.6 37.3
KZN274 - Hlabisa [Somkele] IFP 71.3 50.6 32.7 66.5 43.1
KZN291 - Mandeni [Mandeni] IFP 52.9 60.6 48.4 51.6 51.8

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