OPINION

Mandela Magic road to hell

Vuso Shabalala responds to Woolworths' Ian Moir and Jakkie Cilliers of the ISS

Mandela Magic Road To Hell

Several news media report Woolworths Group Chief Executive Ian Moir blaming suboptimal performance of the group to among others political uncertainty. In one he is quoted saying: “Until we get to December, we are all in a hiatus” (Woolworths pins hopes on ANC elective conference, Business Day 25 August 2017).

Many pundits, businesspeople and economists beat the drum about political uncertainty that at the end focus on who should lead the ANC. With attempts to remove President JG Zuma having failed the focus now is who shall succeed him at the 2017 Conference in December.

In other words it is not just about the fact that a new leader will emerge but who that leader will be.

Moir of Woolworths sings the same chorus with Jakkie Cilliers.

Jakkie Cilliers who is head of the Institute of Security Studies recently published a book titled FATE OF THE NATION – 3 Scenarios for South Africa’s Future.

Scenario planning is a valuable tool for anyone preparing to operate in a changing rapidly environment. However the tool can quite easily be misused deliberately and sometimes unconsciously.

Cilliers grounds his scenarios on whether the leadership of the ANC emerging from the Conference will be led by what he calls Reformists, Traditionalist or a combination of the two.

The scenarios corresponding to these leadership orientations are Mandela Magic, Bafana Bafana, and Nation Divided. The Reformists are led by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Traditionalists by Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Bafana Bafana follows a case where the two “strike a deal”.

We pay little attention to the ascription of the labels to the different actors.

The problem with this thinking is that it is wrong-headed.

It takes the ANC out of its environment and then takes the leadership personalities out of the ANC.

Core values endure but the character of the ANC and that of its leadership is more a product of the conditions under which it operates rather than the other way around.

The economic, social and political challenges facing the country derive from the lack of fundamental change in the material conditions of life for the majority of citizens.

It can be argued that the temporary attraction of the EFF especially among the unemployed youth is more about the search for alternative development paths rather the faces of ANC leaders and their characters.

Leadership matters. However, leadership that is oblivious to the material conditions of life will fail faster.

Policy matters. However, policy that promises prosperity in the hereafter makes hell glisten with promise today.

At the risk of being misunderstood, Mandela Magic brought us to where we are today.

Mr Vuso Shabalala is Special Advisor to President Jacob Zuma