Getting rid of the gift that does not stop giving
With regard to opposition parties, President Zuma currently epitomises the gift that does not stop giving. The longer Number One remains head of the country and the African National Congress (ANC), the larger we can expect to see support grow for opposition parties, as dissatisfied citizens from all spheres of society make the transition from supporting the ruling party towards aligning with opposition forces (or distancing themselves from the party-political enterprise altogether). We are thus presented with a case of perverse logic nowhere more at home than in South African politics, where a successful vote of no confidence might actually be in favour of the ruling party, whilst it would be to the detriment of the party who initiated it.
Amidst the challenging circumstances 2016 commenced with, news that the Democratic Alliance (DA) has requested for a debate on a motion of no confidence in President Zuma has passed by almost unnoticed. At first sight, it might also not seem particularly newsworthy – at least, not in comparison to the re-emergence of large-scale student protests, severe drought affecting huge swathes of the country and food security questions, and the poor short-term economic prospects facing the nation. And, in any case, it has not even been a year since the DA last saw such a motion comfortably defeated in Parliament on 17 March of last year.
What is the rationale for the DA’s persistence to have such a seemingly futile debate being placed on the agenda? Simply, it serves as a tactic to force the ANC to publicly back its much-maligned leader. This presents the DA with the opportunity to take the moral high ground and further inflict harm upon the ruling party, leading up to the local elections. This is in contrast to interpretations in the vein of that made by ANC spokesman in Parliament Moloto Mothapo – that “the DA has abused, misused, and trivialised this type of motion to score a few headlines”.
However, this no-confidence vote could provide a significant opportunity to the broader ANC (and especially Cyril Ramaphosa) – an opportunity that the DA is bargaining for that the ANC will let slip through its fingers. With regard to opposition parties, President Zuma currently epitomises the gift that does not stop giving.
The longer Number One remains head of the country and the ANC, the greater we can expect to see support growing for opposition parties, as dissatisfied citizens from all spheres of society make the transition from supporting the ruling party towards aligning with opposition forces (or distancing themselves from the party-political enterprise altogether).
We are thus presented with a case of perverse logic nowhere more at home than in South African politics, where a successful vote of no confidence might actually be in favour of the ruling party, whilst it would be to the detriment of the party who initiated it.
Two key benefits which would accrue to the ANC (and the country) are: President Zuma being forced to step down and a Cyril Rampahosa-led government taking over in the short run. Not only would that go a long way to restoring investor and business confidence, but it would also be the first step towards mending divisions within the Tripartite Alliance and appeasing an increasingly agitated and disillusioned Cosatu.
But all this would be no more than wishful thinking were President Zuma still the “unstoppable Tsunami” to which Zwelenzima Vavi once likened him. The clearest indicator that this may no longer be the case is seen in the nature of discourse regarding the President’s status, which has noticeably shifted from discussions on his dominance and control to speculation around his survival.
Noted, however, must be that President Zuma has until thus far survived all charges laid against him – ranging from Schabir Shaik, Zuma’s corruption trial, his rape trial, the judges, Nkandla-gate, Waterkloof-gate, the Gupta-gate(s), the Omar al-Bashir saga, Nene-gate, and a blatant disregard for the latter’s effects on the economy. Since his time as ANC head of intelligence in the 1980s, Zuma has excelled in the art of survival.
Considering the DA’s motion as a gift might therefore be a more than worthwhile thought experiment for ANC party-leaders who have the best interests of the country, the ANC, or maybe even just their own careers, at heart.
Tiaan Meiring is an intern at the South African Institute for Race Relations (SAIRR), a think-tank that promotes political and economic freedom.
