POLITICS

2011 elections: National results

With a table of comparison with the 2006 local govt elections

National results of the May 18 2011 local government election:

In the local government elections all voters cast two ballots: A Proportional Representation (PR) ballot, for a party, then a Ward ballot for the ward candidate in their area. Outside of the metros the voters cast a third ballot - for their local district council.

On the Ward ballot the African National Congress secured 8,143,397 votes (60.98 %) and on the PR ballot (62,93%) - an average of 61,95% for both (See Table 1). In the District Council elections the party received 5,455,411 votes (or 69,43%) of the total. Overall the ANC had 22,004,237 ballots cast in its favour (63.65%).

The Democratic Alliance received 3,177,883 (23,80%)on the Ward ballot and 3,216,006 (24,08%) on the PR ballot - an average of 23,94% for both. Because its support is concentrated in the metros it did less well in the District Councils, receiving 1,202,562 votes (15,3 %) on this ballot. Overall, the DA secured 1,202,562 votes on all three ballots (21,97%).

For analytical purposes the PR ballot is the best measure of a party's popular support. The Ward count is affected by the influence of the popularity of individual candidates and independents - a factor which does not apply in national or provincial elections. District Council votes are distorting because they give an additional 50% weighting to voters in rural areas.

If one compares the PR results between the 2006 and 2011 local government elections (see Table 2) the following emerges:

There were 3,505,412 more valid PR votes cast in 2011 than in 2006, a 35,58% increase. The ANC secured 1,936,009 more votes than last time, a 29.93% increase. Its share of the vote declined - from 65,67% to 62,93% - due to an even greater increase in the number of PR votes won by the DA.

The DA increased its number of PR votes from 1,608,154 to 3,216,006 - a 1,607,852 (99,8%) increase. As a result its share of the vote increased from 16,32% to 24,08%. However, it is important to remember that the DA had swallowed up the ID before this election, and the latter party did not contest the poll. The DA+ID received 1,825,915 PR votes in 2006 (18.53%). So the DA secured 1,390,091 more votes in 2011 than the two parties received separately last time - a 76.13% increase. And its share of the vote increased by 5.54 percentage points.

Mainly as a consequence of the National Freedom Party breakaway the IFP hemorrhaged support. It received 475,621 PR votes in 2011, 268,865 fewer than in 2006, a 36.11% fall. Its share of the vote dropped four percentage points to 3,56%.

Table 1: National results of May 18 2011 local govt elections (district councils excluded)

Party Name

Ward

PR

Ward + PR

 

Total Valid Votes

% Total Valid Votes

Total Valid Votes

% Total Valid Votes

Total Valid votes

% Total Valid votes

ACDP

86,865

0.65 %

78,737

0.59 %

165,602

0.62%

ANC

8,143,397

60.98 %

8,405,429

62.93 %

16,548,826

61.95%

APC

38,159

0.29 %

54,332

0.41 %

92,491

0.35%

AZAPO

24,331

0.18 %

26,300

0.20 %

50,631

0.19%

COPE

274,074

2.05 %

296,624

2.22 %

570,698

2.14%

DA

3,177,883

23.80 %

3,216,006

24.08 %

6,393,889

23.94%

INDEPENDENT

302,242

2.26 %

 

 

302,242

1.13%

IFP

478,400

3.58 %

475,621

3.56 %

954,021

3.57%

MF

60,153

0.45 %

53,042

0.40 %

113,195

0.42%

NFP

326,565

2.45 %

318,352

2.38 %

644,917

2.41%

PAC

63,976

0.48 %

54,846

0.41 %

118,822

0.44%

UCDP

25,031

0.19 %

25,971

0.19 %

51,002

0.19%

UDM

83,728

0.63 %

84,623

0.63 %

168,351

0.63%

FF+

66,588

0.50 %

53,931

0.40 %

120,519

0.45%

OTHER PARTIES

202,595

1.52%

213,697

1.60%

416,292

1.56%

Total Valid Votes

13,353,987

100.00%

13,357,511

100.00%

26,711,498

100.00%

 

Table 2: Changes of support between 2006 and 2011 local govt elections on the PR ballot

2006

2011

Increase/Decrease

Party

Total votes

%

Total votes

%

Total votes

% points

ACDP

128,990

1.31%

78,737

0.59 %

-50,253

-0.72%

ANC

6,469,420

65.67%

8,405,429

62.93 %

1,936,009

-2.74%

APC

54,332

0.41 %

54,332

0.41%

AZAPO

30,321

0.31%

26,300

0.20 %

-4,021

-0.11%

COPE

0.00%

296,624

2.22 %

296,624

2.22%

DA

1,608,154

16.32%

3,216,006

24.08 %

1,607,852

7.76%

ID

217,761

2.21%

0

0

-217,761

-2.21%

IFP

744,486

7.56%

475,621

3.56 %

-268,865

-4.00%

MF

42,530

0.43%

53,042

0.40 %

10,512

-0.03%

NFP

0.00%

318,352

2.38 %

318,352

2.38%

PAC

109,816

1.11%

54,846

0.41 %

-54,970

-0.70%

UCDP

62,459

0.63%

25,971

0.19 %

-36,488

-0.44%

UDM

129,047

1.31%

84,623

0.63 %

-44,424

-0.68%

FF+

94,140

0.96%

53,931

0.40 %

-40,209

-0.56%

OTHER PARTIES

214,975

2.18%

213,697

1.60%

-1,278

-0.58%

Total

9,852,099

100.00%

13,357,511

100.00%

3,505,412

0.00%

Data source: www.elections.org.za.

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