A member of the foreign press corps asked me last week whether it seemed to me that President Jacob Zuma was in deep trouble halfway through his presidential term.

And, if this were the case, the journalist asked, did it not increasingly look as though Zuma might not enjoy a second term?

This journalist is relatively new in the country. So he has not learnt yet, as many of us locals have, that it's dicey to proclaim that Zuma is in irreversible trouble.

Mess with the Teflon man of South African politics at your own peril.

For this is the man who was incriminated in a major fraud and corruption case, fired as deputy-president, charged with rape (a charge still talked about even though he was found not guilty), then had charges of fraud and corruption laid against him.

Nonetheless, he was elected president of the ANC, the charges against him were dropped, and he became president of the country.

Even then, his tribulations didn't end.

There was something of a brouhaha at the end of January 2010 when it turned out that Zuma had fathered another child out of wedlock. Still, Zuma soldiered on, apparently as imperturbable and jovial as ever.

Yet, could it be that "serious" storm clouds are gathering just now - political not personal ones - 30 months after Zuma was voted in as president?

It's worth bearing in mind, as we ask this question, that although the next national general election is 30 long months away, the next ANC national election (Mangaung), which is the real arbiter of who the president of the country will be in 2014, is only 12 short months away.

So what would these storm clouds be? There are a number. For example, the disciplining of Julius Malema might be a generally popular move.

But it has not been good for Zuma insofar as Zuma and those around him have been cleverly cast by Malema et al as fat cats slurping up the cream while the poor and powerless go hungry.

By banging on about nationalisation, Malema and his circle placed Zuma and the government in the role of the establishment conservatives who seem to have forgotten the ANC's basic values and recent promises. (Whether this is true or not, and whether this applies equally to Malema, are not the point.)

The Malema incident (and it's just one of many) comes in the wake of various other stumbles and falls.

The economy is in dire straits, with employment promises looking increasingly like pie in the sky; the appointment of the country's chief justice (both the one who had ultimately to demur and the one who got the job) was embarrassing stuff; and the ANC's trade union partners are generally grumpy and unsure about whether they are going to support Zuma at Mangaung.

Ironically, though, less than three months ago, it looked as though Zuma was taking his troubles by the scruff of the neck and showing everyone just how he could clean house if he had to do so.

Zuma appointed a commission of inquiry into the infamous arms deal and a board of inquiry into the behaviour of suspended national police commissioner, Bheki Cele. But what happened?

Zuma's office messed up one of the president's great PR moments by offering the job in the Cele matter to retired constitutional court judge Yvonne Mokgoro, who couldn't take it because according to the SAPS Act, it had to be a judge of the Supreme Court; that means someone never read the rules.

And, in the case of the arms deal, Judge Willem van der Merwe said he couldn't take the job for personal reasons; - no one bothered to talk to him beforehand.

We'll come back to these snafus in a moment.

Then Zuma sacked Gwen Mahlangu- Nkabinde, the public works minister, and Sicelo Shiceka, co-operative governance minister. Good riddance to bad rubbish would probably be the general sentiment.

But these people were presumably appointed in the first place because they had a support base which could be appropriated by Zuma. That's gone now.

Then we come to the events of the first days of December and to some more legal snafus. The Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruled that the appointment of Menzi Simelane as national director of public prosecutions (NDPP) had been unconstitutional and invalid.

Judge Mahomed Navsa's sarcasm was pretty withering: "I accept that the president must have a multitude of daily duties and is a very busy man. However when he is dealing with an office as important as that of the NDPP, which is integral to the rule of law and to our success as a democracy, then time should be taken to get it right."

The DA's Helen Zille's comment was even more withering because she could say things Judge Navsa could not: "The president, in our view, appointed Mr Simelane because he needed an NDPP that had proven to be pliant to the wishes of the executive.

"This was part of the ‘Zumafication' of state institutions designed to shield the president and his network from being held accountable in law.

"It followed the suspension of Vusi Pikoli, who refused to bow to the [former] president's wishes, and the subsequent inexplicable decision of acting NDPP Mokotedi Mpshe to drop the corruption charges against Jacob Zuma on the eve of the 2009 election."

The following day, the SCA put former national police commissioner Jackie Selebi away for 15 years.

Zuma never appointed Selebi but the man Zuma did appoint appears to be in deep trouble as well.

So, although a week is a long time in politics and although Zuma is the Teflon man, he has a great deal to do and re-do before Mangaung.

But is what I have sketched sufficiently damning to make Zuma's supporters back away from him at Mangaung?

I don't think so; not yet; nonetheless, Zuma is surely starting to test his own supporters to the limit.

Jeremy Gordin has written or co-authored three books, including the best selling biography of Jacob Zuma. He is director of the Wits Justice Project. This article first appeared in the Daily Dispatch.

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