Come election time and you can be sure of one thing: Patricia de Lille will make some or other fantastic prediction about how well the Independent Democrats will do. And, just to be clear, I don't mean fantastic in the sense that it will be profoundly insightful; I mean fantastic in the sense that it will be no more grounded in reality than a Dr Seuss children's book.
This election is no different. De Lille is punting the idea that the ID will get a million votes come 22 April.
In the last general election the ID secured 269 765 votes (or 1.73%). So, were it to get a million this time round, that would represent an increase of some 730 000 votes, or around 270%. Nice idea; unfortunately for the ID, the reality is rather different. There is a small chance the party might marginally increase its support in absolute terms - of course, it might not - but, if recent by-election results are anything to go by, there is every chance the ID will end up with less than the 1.7% it won in 2004. In other words, it will shrink, not grow (remember the voters roll will increase, so even if the ID secures a few thousand more votes, in real terms its support will decline).
One thing's for sure: not even Dr Seuss's Cat could pull a million ID votes out of his hat. And I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.
But first, let's take a look at how de Lille's latest preposterous prediction ranks against some of her party's other false prophecies. Here are a series of ID forecasts from the archives, with the actual result below.
PREDICTION 1: The ID will secure 10 - 12% of the national vote in the 14 April 2004 Election.
Said by: Patricia de Lille
Source: "Ten to 12% of the vote - that is what Independent Democrats leader Patricia de Lille predicted her party would get in April's general elections." (SAPA, 23 March 2004)
Actual result: 1.73%
PREDICTION 2: The ID will secure 5% of the KwaZulu-Natal provincial vote in the 14 April 2004 Election.
Said by: Patricia de Lille
Source: "The Independent Democrats (ID) believe they will take 5% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal in the April 14 election, ID leader Patricia de Lille said." (SAPA, 1 April 2004)
Actual result: 0.49%
PREDICTION 3: The ID will secure 56% of the vote in the 2005 Gauteng ward 74 by-election.
Said by: ID press statement.
Source: "According to the survey conducted by a Johannesburg independent Tele-Marketing Company last week on party political support ahead of Wednesday by-election in Ward 74 , the Independent Democrats are the favourite to win the Ward... 56% of the 800 participants surveyed indicated they will overwhelmingly vote for the ID. The results are a clear indication that we are making serious inroads into the DA heartland." (ID Press Statement, 27 July 2005)
Actual result: 8.29%
PREDICTION 4: The ID will win between 300 - 500 Councillors in the 2006 local government elections.
Said by: Patricia de Lille.
Source: "We are setting our targets to at least between 300 and 500 councillors. We think it will be a good shot for the first time of participating." (SAPA, 9 January 2006)
Actual result: 157 Seats/Councillors.
PREDICTION 5: The ID will hold the majority in the Cape Town city council, after the 2006 local government elections.
Said by: Patricia de Lille:
Source: "...I feel very confident and I am willing to bet any journalist R10 000 that we will hold the majority." (Cape Argus, 2 February 2006)
Actual result: 10.75% or 23 out of the 210 seat Cape Town Unicity council. The ID failed to hold the balance of power by 1 seat. (The ID then voted with the ANC for the mayor. It lost by 103 votes to 106)
PREDICTION 6: The ID will "far out-do" the 2% prediction made in an AC Nielsen poll, with regard to the local government elections.
Said by: Patricia de Lille
Source: "The Independent Democrats continues its election campaign as normal and will definitely by far out-do the 2% predicted by AC Nielsen. ID leader Patricia de Lille concurs by saying that "the Independent Democrats have proved many polls and critics wrong in the past, and we vow to do it again. I just hope that when the elections results come out, AC Nielsen will have the decency to admit to their mistake." (ID Press Release, 10 February 2006)
Actual result: 2.21% (PR)
PREDICTION 7: The ID will win between 40 and 56% of the vote nationally in the 2006 local government elections.
Said by: ID Western Cape Provincial Deputy Chairman Louis Dunn
Source: "Looking at how things have gone around the country over the last few weeks, I get the impression that we'll gather between 40% and 56% of votes." (Cape Times, 27 February 2006)
Actual result: 2.21% (PR)
Not a very good track record at all, is it? (I love the 40-56% prediction for the 2006 elections - they seem to really like the figure of 56%.)
But enough of past absurdities, let's return to de Lille's most recent fantasy: what exactly did she say? - just so there are no ifs or buts.
De Lille told SAPA that "the ID were aiming to garner one million votes, which would translate into ‘between 15 and 20 seats' in the 400-member National Assembly". Later, she would tell her supporters at the ID's manifesto launch: "Research shows that we are well on our way to doubling our support yet again and that 1 million South Africans will unite behind our vision and approach".
Pretty unequivocal stuff; now, what to do about it?
Well, de Lille herself is not partial to the odd bet. Indeed, as I have set out above, it was de Lille herself who challenged "any journalist" to a R10 000 bet that the ID would hold the majority in Cape Town, after the 2006 local government elections. (Pity no one took her up on that.)
So, how about a bet about her one million votes prediction?
And here it is: I bet Patricia de Lille R10 000 that she will get less than 500 000 votes on the national ballot in the 2009 election.
Those are very generous odds. I mean, I am effectively betting she will get less than half the votes she predicts she will secure - a margin of 500 000. She need only get half the votes she says she will get to win.
I would suggest de Lille is duty bound to accept, unless of course she was misleading the public when she suggested the party was on track to secure a million votes.
Talk can be big in politics, but Patricia de Lille and the ID get away with murder when it comes to predictions. So, Patricia, time to back up your words with some cold hard cash. I say less than 500 000, you say a million. Are you willing to back up your claim?
Easy money.
Gareth van Onselen is Director of Special Issues for the Democratic Alliance
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