POLOKWANE -- South African politics has reached a watershed at the 52nd national conference of the African National Congress in Polokwane. Elections for the top six positions in the organisation are scheduled to take place on Monday, after delays - and a wrangle over electronic counting - meant that they could not go ahead, as scheduled, on Sunday.
Sunday was a hellish day for President Thabo Mbeki and his supporters. In the morning, as each member of the NEC entered the plenary hall they were cheered or booed depending on whether they were seen as being against Mbeki, or with him.
Terror Lekota, who was supposed to chair the conference, had the hardest time of all as the Zuma-supporting delegates refused to accept his authority. Sections of the crowd repeatedly motioned for him to be substituted. His calls of "amandla" initially had some effect at quieting the delegates, but this soon wore off. Kgalema Motlanthe, ANC secretary general, had to repeatedly step in to pacify delegates and allow the conference to go ahead. It was only a bloc of delegates from the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, situated close to the stage, who sang songs in support of Mbeki.
Mbeki's political report to conference ran to two-and-a-half hours (42 pages.) Three quarters of the speech was taken up recording, often in great technical detail, the record of government under his command. The last quarter contained a thinly veiled attack on Zuma, his supporters, and the left. There was no attempt by Mbeki to conciliate his opponents, or win over his detractors. The conference listened to the report quietly. When Mbeki mentioned those engaged "in criminal and amoral activities driven by the hunger for personal gain" there was no applause at all. When he claimed that it was "entirely false" and "not true" that his regime had been characterised by intolerance, "centralisation of power in the Government Presidency, and abuse of state power," he was jeered by some of the delegates.
After Mbeki's speech concluded, a large part of the crowd (it looked like some sixty percent) stood and sang the anthem for a Jacob Zuma presidency, "Umshini Wam". The Eastern Cape delegates in the corner close to the stage sat very still. Once again Lekota tried to quiet the hall with shouts of "amandla", but couldn't get them to stop. After several minutes of singing, Motlanthe had to step in. He began with "viva ANC viva". He then called out "viva comrade President Thabo Mbeki viva!", and there was a polite "viva" in return. Motlanthe then called out "viva comrade JZ," Zuma's supporters "viva'ed," and then applauded deliriously.
The foreign press reported these events as a humiliation for Mbeki. The Guardian reported that Mbeki had been "jeered and humiliated"; the Daily Telegraph said that he had been "humiliated by his own party as he tried to cling to power."
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If Zuma is elected party president, as seems probable, and his allies take the other five top positions in the ANC, South Africa will experience as much of an alternation in government as is possible in a one-party dominant system. South Africa will have slipped off the trajectory followed by other African countries after the end of colonial (or white) rule. Zuma's main challenge (and test) will be how to respond should the National Prosecuting Authority decide to reinstate the charges against him. He will also have to try and repair an ANC whose unity was fractured by this leadership contest. However, he will be in the position, as the ANC was after 1994, to dispel through his actions the inchoate fear of his rule. Once Zuma brings the levers of patronage under his control Mbeki's residual support (outside of perhaps the Eastern Cape) is likely to fall into line.
If Mbeki goes on to win a third term as ANC president, it will give new meaning to the term ‘silent majority.' He will have great difficulty re-establishing his authority over the organisation, or keeping it united. There is already a deep distrust among many delegates of the incumbent ANC leadership. The ANC Youth League has stridently opposed a new (and evidently rational) electronic vote counting system out of fear that this would facilitate vote rigging. Those who opposed and insulted Mbeki during the Zuma rebellion will also fear retribution. The SACP and Cosatu will also continue to provide the Zuma-ites with independent power bases.
To adapt the words of Niccolò Machiavelli only slightly, it is more difficult to reduce a party "to subjection that has revolted, than it as to conquer it originally. For not having given any special offence before the conquest that would cause them to fear punishment, they yield easily; but having offended by the rebellion and fearing the penalty, they defend themselves with great obstinacy."
