Let us give Cyril Ramaphosa his due. At least he did not promise to "kickstart" the economy with the stimulus package he announced last month. His view that his "stimulus plan" will "ignite economic activity" is nevertheless fanciful – so much so that his supposed "long game" appears to be less that of a crafty politician than that of a man increasingly out of his depth in handling the economy.
Firstly, the plan is devoid of major policy ideas. Even the minor improvement of relaxing visa requirements has been botched by a minister who should have been fired long ago. Secondly, the only good thing about the R400 billion for infrastructure is that this spending is already in the budget, so that it will supposedly not add to the fiscal deficit.
Designating this money for a new infrastructure fund to be run out of the presidency is a re-branding gimmick that will not overcome the government's inability to spend it timeously, honestly, and efficiently. Year in and year out we have heard promises of infrastructure programmes. Most have fallen short of expectations. This is a government which cannot even meet its targets for building lavatories at schools.
In July 2015, the then deputy minister of trade and industry, Mzwandile Masina, promised that emerging black industrialists would play a key role in a R5 trillion infrastructure programme. In November 2016, the then secretary general of the African National Congress (ANC), Gwede Mantashe, announced a "massive" infrastructure programme that would "turn South Africa into a construction site". In July last year, the ANC's treasurer general, Zweli Mkhize, said the government was ready to invest R3 trillion in infrastructure, although only when the construction sector had been "transformed".
Well, the construction sector has been "transformed". Several major companies, citing the paucity of government infrastructure projects, are in liquidation or business rescue. Others, also blaming some of their problems on the dearth of such projects, have long since decided to seek new opportunities elsewhere – like the mining companies before them. Among those complaining at the lack of government work are a big black company. And, of course, when the government does hand out work, it often fails to pay.
Using figures published by the National Treasury, the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) has kept track of some of the spending shortfalls. In 2011/2012, for example, R290 billion was budgeted for public sector infrastructure, but the amount actually spent was R208 billion – – only around 72%.