Just over a third of metro adults feel that SA's mines should be nationalised

In a survey of 2 000 residents of South Africa's metropolitan areas conducted in February 2011 and released today, TNS Research Surveys (Pty) Ltd, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company, revealed that 38% of metro adults feel that South Africa's mines should be nationalised.  TNS said that 28% disagreed and a considerable 34% gave a "don't know" response - a much higher "don't know" response than usual, suggesting that the pros and cons of the issue have yet to be fully explicated to people.

The level of agreement differed considerably by race, showing that this could be a very divisive issue.  In particular, whilst no grouping has a majority in favour of nationalizing South Africa's mines (due to the high "don't know" response), amongst those venturing an opinion, blacks are in favour by more than two to one, whilst whites are not in favour by almost three to one, with an absolute majority being negative (56%).  For the other two race groups, opinions are equally divided.  This is clearly a difficult and potentially emotive issue.

In particular, Afrikaans speakers are the most negative whilst Tswana speakers are the most positive.  Males tend to be more in agreement (41%) than females (34%) who also gave higher "don't know" responses (37% vs 31% for males).  Levels of agreement rose somewhat for younger people, from 22% for those aged 60 years and more to 41% for those aged under 34 years.  In line with the results by race, more affluent people are much more negative but there are no differences between employed and unemployed people.  The "don't know" response was also much higher for poorer people who may have other more immediate problems.

TNS said that the results showed very strong differences by area:

Agreement is highest in Gauteng (and especially the West Rand) and Bloemfontein but very low in Cape Town and the Eastern Cape.  The proportion of people giving a "don't know" response was also high in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, possibly because the issue is not seen as pressing there.

Our take-out

This is clearly a divisive and potentially emotive issue.  However, it is also characterized by a lack of knowledge of the pros and cons, especially amongst poorer people and in places where mining is a possibly lower contributor to the economy.

Technical note

The study was conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The study was conducted by TNS Research Surveys (Pty) Ltd as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS Research Surveys.

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, Head: Innovation, TNS Research Surveys, April 10 2011

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