Zimbabwe

Latest political developments

1. SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government

The issue of Zimbabwe featured high on the agenda of the SADC 28th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government that took place in Sandton from 16 to 17 August. Negotiations between the two sides continued during the Summit; however, no agreement was reached during this time. The SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security held an Extraordinary Summit on the margins of the SADC Summit, where the Facilitator briefed the Organ on progress made. The Summit expressed the firm opinion that the documents contained in the Facilitator's Report to the Organ reflect the framework, spirit and purpose of the SADC and AU Resolutions. In view of that, they are a good basis for a global agreement between the Parties.

2. Opening of the Parliament of Zimbabwe

The swearing-in of the Members of Parliament-elect and the subsequent election, by secret ballot, of the leaders of the two chambers of Parliament took place on 25 August. The Senate (Upper House) has 93 seats, 60 of which are directly elected. The remaining 13 are appointed by the President. The House of Assembly (Lower House) has 210 seats. MDC-T has 100 MPs in the House of Assembly, ZANU-PF has 99, MDC-M has 10 MPs and one Independent. Zimbabwe does not have a hung Parliament - neither MDC-T nor ZANU-PF enjoys an outright majority and would have to rely on the smaller MDC faction for support.

Mr Lovemore Moyo of MDC-T won the contest for the position of Speaker of the House of Assembly with 110 votes. Mr Paul Themba Nyathi of MDC-M received 98 votes. ZANU-PF did not field a candidate but threw its weight behind the Mutambara faction's candidate. Ms Nomalanga Khumalo of the MDC-M took the Deputy Speaker post uncontested.

On 24 August, President Mugabe announced the appointment of eight provincial Governors and three Senators. ZANU-PF holds 30 seats in the Senate, MDC-T has 24 and MDC-M has six seats. The 18 Chiefs, who also now sit in the Senate, have traditionally supported ZANU-PF. This gives ZANU-PF a majority in the upper house of Parliament. Ms Edna Madzongwe of ZANU-PF beat the MDC-M candidate to become President of the Senate. Mr Naison Ndlovu, also of ZANU-PF, beat Ms Sekai Holland of the MDC-T to become Deputy President of the Senate.

In terms of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, if the President is absent or incapacitated, the Vice-President becomes the Acting President of the country. In the absence of the President or the two Vice-Presidents, the President of the Senate then assumes that role.

Provincial Governors:

Reappointments:
Angeline Masuku: Matabeleland South
Thokozile Mathuthu: Matabeleland North
Cain Mathema: Bulawayo Province
David Karimanzira: Harare Province

New appointments:
Martin Dinha: Mashonaland Central
Aeneas Chigwedere: Mashonaland East
Christopher Mushowe: Manicaland
Faber Chidarikire: Mashonaland West

Governors for Masvingo and Midlands Provinces have yet to be appointed. President Mugabe also appointed Joseph Msika, Patrick Chinamasa and John Nkomo to the Senate.

3. Socio-economic trends

The official annual inflation rate reached 11,2 million percent in August 2008. However, independent analysts have estimated that actual inflation is closer to 50 million percent, based on prices of a basket of basic foodstuffs. The Zimbabwe dollar is devaluing at a rate of 100% a week.

At the end of July, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) removed 10 zeros [from the currency] in an effort to bring down inflation. From 1 August, Z$10 billion has become Z$1. However, economists predict the zeros will return very soon as the latest measures do not address the causes of the hyperinflation and are not being followed by meaningful reforms, such as addressing the unavailability of foreign currency and low investment in Zimbabwe.

4. Humanitarian situation

The Zimbabwean government suspended the work of all humanitarian organisations on 28 May, after accusing them of engaging in political activities. There was an expectation that this ban would be lifted after the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the rival political parties was signed on 21 July. However, to date this has not happened. Some non-governmental organisations (NGOs) appear to have resumed unofficial operations, but are 'negotiating at field level' for access.

On 18 June, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) published its crop assessment, which forecasts that more than five million Zimbabweans would suffer food insecurity in the next nine months, a million people more than the previous year. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) estimates that 2,04 million people in rural and urban areas will be food insecure between July and September 2008, rising to 3,8 million people between October and December, and peaking to about 5,1 million at the height of the hungry season between January and March 2009.

5. South Africa's role

South Africa will continue to facilitate dialogue between the ZANU-PF and MDC factions, within the framework of the SADC mandate and AU Summit Resolution in an effort to reach an inclusive political settlement. In addition, there is a need to deal with the humanitarian situation and to start work on the economic rescue package for Zimbabwe.

Reports that talks will resume today

The Head of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security, reported to have said that all parties had agreed at the SADC Summit "that all Zimbabwe stakeholders should go and sit and finalise all outstanding issues, which will pave the way for establishing a stable and peaceful government. All parties concerned must abide by all the agreements".

Legislative elections in Angola, 5 to 6 September 2008

A contingent of ten South Africans, including members of Parliament and representatives of civil society, will form part of a SADC Observer Mission in respect of the legislative elections to be held in Angola from 5-6 September 2008. They will form part of the bigger group of election observers, which include the AU and European Union (EU), invited by the Angolan Government. The Executive Secretary of SADC, Tomas Salomao, participated in the launch of the SADC Observer Mission on 23 August 2008, in Luanda, which will be headed by Mr John Kunene of Swaziland.

In his remarks at this occasion, the Executive Secretary of SADC mentioned that SADC is in Angola with an open spirit, not only to observe the elections but also to assist in post-election process, which includes reconstruction and socio-economic development of Angola. In his official launch remarks, Mr Kunene stated that the invitation by the Angolan Government to observe the legality and transparency of the electoral process, attests that Angola is committed to democracy and political transparency.

The Observer Mission leader further clarified that his mission would be guided by the Principles and Guidelines of SADC on Elections. He indicated that their involvement would be based only on observation and not participation. By the time of the launch observers from three countries, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zambia were already in Angola. The South African contingent is scheduled to arrive on Thursday 28 August 2008.

The fourteen political parties participating in the forthcoming legislative elections have commenced with their respective political campaigns throughout the country since the beginning of August 2008. It could be expected that the MPLA and UNITA would remain the strongest contestants of the elections. At this stage, no major obstacles regarding the preparations for the elections have been reported. The impression is further that Angola, through the National Electoral Commission, would ensure that logistical arrangements are ready on the day of the elections which would be conducive to a peaceful election atmosphere.

Questions and answers

Question: Minister what is your response to the announcement by Robert Mugabe that he is going to form a cabinet and that borne out by the Herald newspaper and by Bright Mutonga the ZANU PF spokesman. Do you believe this would seriously jeopardise the mediation efforts of President Mbeki?

Aziz Pahad: The biggest challenge we have is to finalise the outstanding issues. I think the talks that will start today; you've already seen it reported that the chief negotiator for the MDC Tsvangirai has already sent in a letter of protest to President Mbeki on this issue. You also would have seen the report that the Executive Secretary of SADC, Dr Salomao, is reported to have said that the regional body gave Mugabe the powers only to convene parliament, as reflected in the SADC Communiqué issued after the Summit.

It is clear that the Secretary General's interpretation seems to be that we should really concentrate on finalising the outstanding issues and he seems to think that the SADC Communiqué only allowed for a parliament to be held. By implication he seems to be hinting, according to the newspaper reports, that there is no mandate to form a new government without consensus of all three players.

Question: There has been speculation, particularly in the media, that these outstanding issues that you refer to refer directly to the question of the executive power. Could you share some light on some possible structure that could address this issue in order to provide for an effective dealing with this matter?

Aziz Pahad: As I've said previously the facilitation is being carried out by Minister Mufamadi. We are not fully privy to what the outstanding issues are. But if you've been reading the media carefully, it's clear that, at least some of the media claim to have access to those leaked documents which have hinted at two or three issues: what are the actual powers of the president? What are the actual powers of the prime minister? Who chairs cabinet? On what basis are cabinet ministers chosen? Does parliament choose the prime minister or does the president choose the prime minister?

These are some of the issues that the papers have referred to as they obtained from leaked documents. We at Foreign Affairs are not privy to the documents that they are referring to. But it is clear from the press reports that these are the issues they say outstanding.

I can only stress that SADC as a whole were of the opinion that the documents that were given to them on the basis of all previous discussions gave an excellent opportunity and foundation for finalising these negotiations and that it is in the interests of the Zimbabweans now to really move forward, to really do what SADC has called for which is the finalisation of outstanding issues.

Question: You indicated a dire situation developing in Zimbabwe. It is my understanding that today's talks are crucial. Will they continue into the weekend? Are you convinced as government and as SADC that President Mugabe is actually threatening to go ahead with unilateral action at this stage?

Aziz Pahad: I cannot comment on whether he is going to go ahead. I can only say that we've been told that all negotiators are here and that the talks will now carry on what we ended with at the Extraordinary Organ.

All reports are indicating that it is vital for Zimbabwe specifically, but the region generally to find a political solution. It is quite clear that there are contingency economic recovery packages and that you can assist somewhat with the humanitarian crisis, but unless there is a political solution you don't have the necessary framework in order to initiate or implement the economic recovery programme, nor effectively deal with the humanitarian crisis as the International Red Cross has reported.

So the talks are crucial, all talks are crucial in order to find a way forward.

Question: On the possibility of President Mugabe forming a government on his own, you were sighting the Secretary General, what is the position from the South African Government's point of view? Does the South African government feel that such a move would derail the mediation efforts?

Aziz Pahad: Not being privy to the discussions that took place at the extraordinary summit, I'm unable to comment on that. It is Minister Mufamadi who must comment on that issue. It is clear from what the Secretary General has said that the Executive Secretary seems to be different.

Question: Could you explain to me how SADC reached the decision that it's ok to go ahead with the reconvening of parliament when the Memorandum of Understanding that was signed clearly states that parliament should be reconvened by consensus.

Aziz Pahad: SADC came to the decision, and I can only interpret from the communiqué. They had three days of discussions, all the members of the executive as well as all the role players in Zimbabwe. At the end they came to that conclusion based on their reading of the documents that were provided to them.

We do hope that sooner than later Facilitation will make the documents available to all of us to be privy to them. It is clear that the Heads of State and the Foreign Ministers who went through the documents were quite convinced that it was a basis for a solution in the interest of all Zimbabweans in the transitional phase. What the actual details were, I'm not aware.

Question: Is it only the MDC group that is here or is ZANU PF also here? The state media is reporting that Minister Chinamasa is saying that there is a deal on the table and that they don't need to negotiate any further. Can you confirm whether it is only the MDC that is here or whether ZANU PF will also participate? Are the talks just for today or will they take place through the weekend?

Aziz Pahad: From what I was told all the relevant role-players are in South Africa at the moment. I think the length of the discussions will be determined by what progress they make. I don't think there is any limit or deadline for them. I don't think the SADC Summit set any deadline. They just said they think the documentation provided an excellent framework for a solution. Today's talks must try to see what else can be done to get a consensus from all three parties on the way forward. If it takes them longer, I hope they will stay longer to resolve these outstanding issues.

Question: For the sake of clarity, is the mediation that is taking place only scheduled for one day, that is only this Friday or are you saying that it is going to continue over the weekend?

Aziz Pahad: We have not been given a time limit or deadline. I am assuming it will continue until all parties feel they have covered sufficient ground.

Question: Is President Mbeki facilitating today's talks?

Aziz Pahad: Firstly we do not know. The Department of Foreign Affairs is not aware whether President Mbeki will participate. I assume that if it necessary for him to be brought in then he is willing to take part, but we are not aware whether he is starting with the talks or not - I think it would be good if you spoke to his spokesperson.

Question: What role did Foreign Affairs play in the release of the two South Africans that have arrived from Uganda this morning?

Aziz Pahad: From the day we were informed that the two South Africans had been arrested in Uganda we carried out extensive activities both in Pretoria and through our High Commission in Uganda. Thus Foreign Affairs as well as the Intelligence Services immediately sought access and immediately sought information on what basis the two South Africans were detained. We are happy that we continued interacting with the authorities at every level to seek some access, which we got quite quickly. Our Mission was able to meet with them to get their side of the story and to confirm if they were in good conditions. In fact we continued then to interact with the Ugandans and we are happy that they have been released now.

This again highlights one of the problems that we have been saying that in the fight against terrorism, many people's names are coming onto lists that are not UN lists but some of the big powers are creating their own lists and you get South African after South African on these lists now. Previously it was only in the United States or the United Kingdom but now we find that in the United Arab Emirates and now it is Uganda and other countries South Africans' names appear. They are immediately seen as a threat; they get arrested and then it takes a long time to get through to the relevant government structures to the intelligence structures; or to the security structures to try to convince them that our own reports don't indicate that the people they have arrested or put on lists are of what they call within the terrorist framework.

It is clear that this time something has happened that their names appeared on some list and they were detained. But as soon as we were able to give them sufficient information about our own understanding, both at Foreign Affairs and Intelligence level, then the only way forward had been to release them. We hope that we are able to try to tackle these lists now more effectively. We have had this with Professor Habib and others and many have been kicked out of the UAE and not allowed to even transit because they had been on some list.

The problem is that our enquiries about these lists are not getting any success because governments are telling us that this is a matter of national security and they cannot tell us what basis they put people on the list - we cannot verify any of these issues. This is why, if you will recall, we challenged them in the UN Security Council when they put South Africans on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) list, and we have managed to keep those off the UNSC list until we get further information; giving us accurate information about the allegations.

I think that like any government we are very wary of taking information that is not verified because now we have learnt the hard way that there is a lot of misinformation as we continue to get more and more involved in the anti-terrorist world.

We are totally committed to fighting terrorism. In every meeting, including the SADC meeting; the AU meeting; the IBSA meeting; our bilateral meetings with India, and our meetings with the EU, terrorism is always on the agenda and we have totally committed ourselves to fight terrorism both at home and anywhere in cooperation - but I want to stress that we want some of our other partners to be more upfront and transparent with us.

We do not expect them to go to the media all the time, but if they have information, to share this information with us so that we can either verify or challenge the information they give us. I think the Ugandan experience is a good lesson in us trying to convince other countries in Africa not just to move on lists without seeking some clarification from countries whose citizens are being detained in their countries.

So we have worked very well on this matter; we have had good cooperation from the Ugandans and we are now happy that the two have been released.

Question: Does the Department of Foreign Affairs have any comment regarding the nomination of Barack Obama as the candidate for the Democrats?

Aziz Pahad: We have noted that the Democratic Convention has endorsed Barack Obama as the Presidential candidate; we look forward to a very robust Presidential campaign and we wish it all the success and all the best. It is up to the American people. They will deserve the President they choose.

Question: Deputy Minister you mentioned that we need a political solution to the Zimbabwe crisis to address the economic and social problems, and the problem with humanitarian aid. Is it not possible somehow for the region to put pressure on the Zimbabwean government to allow humanitarian aid meanwhile? Should it have to depend on any political solution when people are starving while negotiations drag on?

Aziz Pahad: We have always expressed our concern about the humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe. There was a Secretary General's Envoy who had gone there and there have been subsequent delegations from SADC and the AU, and we will continue to raise the issue of the humanitarian situation. You know the government's reasons for cutting off the humanitarian organisations were based on that they were getting involved politically. I think in the end we will continue to urge that everything possible to, while dealing with the political manipulation or not, that we start effectively dealing with the humanitarian situation.

The World Food Organisation and the World Health Organisation are giving quite sn increased number of people who are going to be in need of aid in the next coming period. So clearly the situation demands action by all the parties concerned.

Question: What reasons were given by the Ugandan authorities as to why these two guys were put on the list?

Aziz Pahad: We are now waiting through the Diplomatic channel both through the intelligence services and Foreign Affairs for us to be given reasons - they won't give them to us over the telephone until there is a Note Verbal to us and we are awaiting that to really assess that, because it will help us then to get a better handle on why is it that so many South Africans are finding themselves on these lists and most of them, if not all, are proven to be quite innocent. We are waiting for the Note Verbal on that matter.

This is an extract from the transcript of the media briefing by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Aziz Pahad, Union Buildings, Pretoria, August 29 2008. Issued by: the Department of Foreign Affairs