GNU on the brink? The fragility of SA’s political unity
9 October 2024
On 26 September, 2024, South Africa witnessed a significant political moment with the ousting of Cilliers Brink, the Democratic Alliance (“DA”) mayor of Tshwane, after a motion of no confidence orchestrated by the African National Congress (“ANC”) and supported by ActionSA. This dramatic turn of events is more than just a shift in local government, it raises profound concerns about the stability of the broader political landscape and the fragile Government of National Unity (“GNU”). While ostensibly a move motivated by accusations of public financial mismanagement and a failure to improve service delivery, Brink’s removal also hints at deeper tensions within South Africa’s political system – tensions that could have far-reaching consequences for the future of the GNU and governance at both local and national levels.
The GNU, engineered by President Cyril Ramaphosa and DA leader John Steenhuisen, was founded on key principles like respect for the Constitution, non-racialism, social justice and accountability. Designed to uphold democratic governance and stability, the GNU now faces internal threats from within the ANC. Brink’s ousting exposes these growing divisions, with influential figures like Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi advocating for alternative alliances that challenge the GNU’s unity. As these rifts deepen, the values on which the GNU was built – transparency, nation-building and good governance – are at serious risk. If these fractures continue, the unity essential to safeguarding South Africa’s political and economic future could unravel, plunging the country into deeper instability.
Lesufi’s rising prominence ahead of the ANC’s 2027 elective conference presents a clear challenge to the future of the GNU. As a vocal critic of the GNU, particularly its cooperation with “historically white” parties like the DA, Lesufi has positioned himself as a potential frontrunner for the ANC presidency. His preference for alliances with liberation movements such as the PAC and Azapo suggests a sharp shift away from the centrist, inclusive approach of Ramaphosa’s ANC. While Lesufi downplays his presidential ambitions, rumours of his alignment with Deputy President Paul Mashatile hint at a possible return to populist, Zuma-era politics. This leadership contest could determine whether the ANC continues to support the GNU’s principles or fractures under pressure, potentially undermining national stability.
If these anti-GNU forces gain control of the ANC ahead of 2027, it could signal the first step towards the unravelling of the fragile unity engineered by Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen. The ANC’s internal struggles, driven by figures like Lesufi, may not only reshape the party’s identity, but also throw South Africa into an era of political uncertainty, where governance is compromised by infighting and public services fall victim to political agendas.
The motion of no confidence against Brink stemmed from allegations that his administration had failed to improve service delivery in Tshwane. The Constitution is clear about the responsibilities of local government, particularly in relation to service delivery. Section 152 of the Constitution outlines the objectives of local government, which include ensuring the provision of services to communities in a sustainable manner and promoting social and economic development. While it’s true that the city, like many others across South Africa, faces significant challenges in delivering basic services to its residents, it’s essential to consider the broader context. Brink’s administration had embarked on several key initiatives, notably the Hammanskraal water project, which aimed to provide clean and reliable water to one of the most neglected parts of the city. His administration was also focused on tackling some of the city’s financial woes, which had been inherited from previous ANC-led councils. Whether his removal will lead to improvements remains to be seen, but political instability seldom fosters better governance.
The motion, supported by ActionSA – a party founded on a platform opposing ANC governance – raises questions about the motivations behind its alignment with the ANC in this critical moment. While speculation varies, some observers point to the “MICE” rule as a lens to understand this manoeuvre: Could money have exchanged hands, though there is no evidence of corruption? Is it driven by ideological clashes with the DA under Brink’s leadership? Or is there coercion at play, involving compromising information? Lastly, personal ambition and political ego could also be factors. Whatever the reason, the move places political interests ahead of the urgent service delivery needs of Tshwane’s residents, turning them into pawns in a larger power struggle.
The removal of Brink could have ripple effects far beyond Tshwane, serving as a catalyst for more political chaos if the anti-GNU faction within the ANC gains further momentum. With Gauteng being South Africa’s economic engine, instability here has the potential to trigger wider economic repercussions across the country. Local government service delivery issues are not confined to isolated municipalities – they are reflective of the broader challenges facing governance in South Africa. A weakened GNU would not only impact local governments, but could also stall key national policies, create uncertainty around economic reforms and erode investor confidence.
Helen Zille, DA Federal Council Chairperson, heightened tensions with her 27 September letter to ANC leadership. She demanded Brink’s reinstatement, calling his ousting a “seismic event” that threatens the GNU’s future. Zille warned that unless Brink returns, the DA would reconsider its cooperation in other municipalities, signalling that national unity – and stability – now hangs in the balance, with broader consequences for South Africa’s economic and political landscape.
If the above scenario unfolds and the door will swing open for the EFF, MKP, or other parties not fully aligned with the Constitution to enter government, disaster looms on the horizon. The EFF has made no secret of its desire to implement radical economic reforms, including land expropriation without compensation and the nationalisation of key industries. If these policies are enacted, they could lead to widespread uncertainty in the markets, erode property rights and undermine the rule of law – core tenets of the democratic South Africa that emerged in 1994. The collapse of the GNU and the potential rise of such an alliance would not only destabilise political institutions, but could also compromise the country’s standing in the global community and weaken its economic foundations.
Brink’s removal is just one chapter in this unfolding drama, but it serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of South Africa’s current political equilibrium. The residents of Tshwane, like so many others across the country, need stable and effective governance – governance that prioritises service delivery and economic development over factional power struggles. The question now is whether the GNU can survive the coming storm, or whether the forces of division within the ANC and the rise of radical populism will bring about its downfall.
As the City of Tshwane gears up for a special council meeting on 9 October, 2024, to elect a new mayor, the tension is palpable. With just 14 days to appoint a successor, party leaders are embroiled in negotiations that could spark a deadlock. Will this pivotal moment be a stepping stone towards unity or a catalyst for further division?
The cracks in the GNU are growing and as we approach the ANC’s 2027 leadership contest, these divisions will only deepen. If the anti-GNU faction wins out, South Africa’s political landscape could change irrevocably, with consequences that stretch far beyond the borders of Tshwane. The country stands at a crossroads and the decisions made in the next few years will determine the future of its democracy, its economy and the lives of millions of its citizens. If those in power remain focused on political ambition rather than effective governance, South Africa’s political system could be pushed to the brink, with the collapse of the GNU potentially serving as the tipping point.
Issued by FW de Klerk Foundation, 9 October 2024
