Support for Julius Malema continues to fall

Seventeen percent of metro adults support what Julius Malema says and does.  This is down from the 21% measured in mid-2010 and the 27% seen in at the end of 2009.  These figures were released today by TNS South Africa, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company.  They arise from three studies, each of 2 000 adults in South Africa's seven major metropolitan areas, the latest being conducted between 25 August and 12 September - at the start of the current ANC disciplinary hearing that he is undergoing.  The studies have a margin of error of less than 2½% for the overall result.

In more detail, the results show that a lack of support for what he says and does is evinced by 71% (the same as last year but well up from the 56% seen in 2009).  In addition, 11% gave a "don't know" response (up from 8% last year).

Not surprisingly, there are large differences between the different race groups although the fall is almost universal:

I support what Julius Malema says and does - 17% (21% last year)

• Blacks - 26% (down from 30% last year)
• Whites - 2% (5%)
• Coloureds - 4% (4%)
• Indians/Asians - none (7%)

There are significant gender differences with 20% of males supporting Mr Malema compared with 15% of females.  The gender difference is particularly marked for blacks at 31% for males and 22% for females. 

Geographically, there are also notable differences, driven largely by the differing racial profiles of the different areas.

 This shows a consistent decline in most areas except Pretoria and the Vaal Triangle/South Rand, Port Elizabeth and Bloemfontein.  Support levels are very low in East London, Durban and Cape Town. 

Amongst black language speakers, support levels are highest amongst those whose home language is Sotho (Sepedi and Sesotho) (32%) and lowest amongst those whose home language is isiZulu (23%), the other major groups coming in at 26% (isiXhosa, Setswana).

Interestingly, his support levels reach 23% amongst the unemployed, compared with 16% amongst those working. 

Support shows a strong negative correlation with age:

• 18 to 24 year-olds - 26% (25% in 2010 and 33% in 2009))
• 25 to 34 year-olds - 22%
• 35 to 49 year olds - 13%
•  50 to 59 year-olds - 7%
• 60 years old and over - 5% (10% in 2010)

Amongst the black youth, those showing support for Mr Malema are still a minority:

• Blacks aged 18 to 24: support - 35%; do not support - 56%
• Blacks aged 25 to 29: support - 31%; do not support - 56%
• Blacks aged 30 to 34: support - 27%; do not support - 54%
• Blacks aged 35 to 39: support - 22%; do not support - 69%
• Older blacks: support - 14%; do not support - 75%

Our take out

Support for Julius Malema shows a consistent decline over the last 18 months, though less so in the last year amongst those aged under 24.  There are significant gender differences especially amongst blacks, with females showing much lower levels of support.  The unemployed show higher signs of support, as do younger blacks - but they are still a minority.

Technical note

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas.  The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS.

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, TNS South Africa, September 28 2011

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