The matric pass requirements have been engineered to make it exceedingly difficult for a candidate to actually fail. In order to pass matric a candidate is simply required to achieve a 40% pass in three subjects, one of which must be an official language at home language level, and 30% in three other subjects. A candidate can completely fail in a seventh subject and still pass overall.

In reality, a number of subjects are basically unflunkable. In 2013 over 99% of candidates who sat any of the black-African home language National Senior Certificate papers passed with over 40%. This pass rate was only marginally lower for those who sat the English home language (96.8%) and Afrikaans home language (97.9%) papers.

98.8% of candidates passed the English First Additional Language examination with 30%, the language requirement government regards as sufficient to go on to study in English at University. 88.7% passed with over 40%. 99% of candidates also passed life orientation with over 40%.

Failing matric then, is for the overwhelming majority of candidates, heavily dependent on securing less than 30% in two of the four remaining subjects that they write. One of these has to be mathematics or maths literacy.

Maths and maths literacy

Maths literacy was implemented as a "better than nothing" subject - as many pupils under the old pre-2008 system were writing no maths at all. The standard of the current mathematics examination meanwhile lies somewhere between the old standard and higher-grade. It still has the highest failure rate of any major subject. Maths literacy is a much simpler test of knowledge and the pass rate is obviously much higher as a result (see table 1).

Table 1: Pass rate for the maths and maths literacy papers, NSC examinations, between 2009 and 2013

One of the flaws in the way the current matric examination is structured is that the relatively stronger candidates who choose the harder option of maths are much more likely to fail this examination, and potentially their entire matric as well. Conversely, one of the ways used by schools and provinces to increase their overall pass rate is to push more pupils into writing maths literacy. As is evident from Table 2 an ever greater percentage of candidates have written the maths literacy examination over the past few years. In 2009 51.1% of candidates wrote the mathematics examination, but in 2013 this was down to only 42.7%.

Table 2: Proportions of candidates for NSC writing maths versus maths literacy

This in itself would not be a problem if only the pupils likely to fail maths were shifted across to writing maths literacy. However, the problem arises when pupils who could well have passed maths are prevailed upon to write maths literacy, even though a pass in maths will open up many more doors later on. Between 2009 and 2011 the percentage of all candidates writing either maths or maths literacy, who passed the maths examination, declined from 23.5% to 20.8%. See Table 3.

Table 3: Candidates who passed maths or maths literacy, as % of those who wrote both examinations

Over the past couple of years however this has risen again, to 23.6% in 2012 and 25.2% in 2013. What is driving this increase is not a greater proportion of candidates writing mathematics - as this has continued to decline - but a dramatic increase in the mathematics pass rate from 46.3% in 2011, to 54% in 2012 and 59.1% in 2013. (By contrast the maths literacy pass rate has remained fairly stable since 2011.)

Many of these mathematics passes continue to be of poor quality. See Graph 1 below. Of those who wrote the 2013 NSC mathematics examination 59.1% passed with over 30%, 40,5% with over 40%, 26,1% with over 50% and 15,6% with over 60%. To put this figure slightly differently, 11,2% of all candidates who wrote the 2013 NSC examination passed mathematics with more than 50%.

The mathematics and physical science pass rates by province

The increase in the government matric maths pass rate has, it would seem, been one of the major factors behind the increase in the overall matric pass rate. The equally dramatic increase in the physical sciences pass rate from 53.4% in 2011, to 61.3% in 2012 and 67.4% in 2013 is, presumably, one of the others. The question is whether this reflects an underlying improvement in maths and science instruction, or some other factor, such as a softening of standards or some kind of meddling in the results.

It is instructive in this regard to compare the increases in maths and physical science passes by province. See Table 4 and Table 5. Strikingly, the Western Cape, the province with the most rigorous and reliable assessment standards did not see an increase in the maths pass rate (it declined slightly from 73,5% to 73,3%). By contrast the maths pass rate in the Free State jumped by 6,3 percentage points to 71,1%, and the North West by 7,8 percentage points to 67,4%.

Table 4: Change in the mathematics pass rate by province NSC 2012 to 2013

In the physical science examination there was a similar inter-provincial discrepancy. The Western Cape, which had the highest pass rate in 2012 (70,9%), saw a 1,6 percentage point increase in its pass rate in the physical sciences examination to 72,6%. It was however leapfrogged by the Free State which saw a 7,2 percentage point increase to 75,8%; Gauteng, a 5,5 percentage point increase to 75,6%; and, the North West, which saw an incredible 11,8 percentage point increase in its physical science pass rate to 74,5%.

Table 5: Change in the physical science pass rate by province NSC 2012 to 2013

Conclusion

In the past, two of the ways in which schools and provinces could "game the system" when it came to the matric pass rate were through culling weaker pupils before they wrote the matric, and by shifting pupils from mathematics to the much easier subject of maths literacy. It seems that these two methods have largely played themselves out, and do not explain the recent increase in the overall government matric pass rate.

As noted earlier in this article certain examinations in core subjects - namely languages and life orientation - are passed by almost every candidate who sits them. It is not possible then for the pass rates in these subjects to increase further. It seems likely then that a considerable part of the recent increase in the matric pass rate is being driven by substantial increases in the pass rates in the traditional "hard" subjects of maths and physical science.

If this is simply the result of better teaching, and a "bedding down" of the new curriculum, this is all well and good. However, if this is to some degree the result of a manipulation of the marking process in certain provinces this goes to the very heart of the credibility, integrity and fairness of the entire system.

In the unlikely event that government institutes an investigation of the 2013 government matric results, as DA leader Helen Zille has requested, an obvious place to focus such an audit then would be on the massive increase in the pass rate of both mathematics and physical sciences in provinces such as the Free State and the North West.

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