As nationalisation rhetoric goes up, jobs will go down
The approach of the national conference of the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) has been accompanied by more loud rhetoric on nationalisation. It will have the inevitable consequence of investor withdrawal, the loss of new jobs and a reduction in current ones.
The NUMSA conference will be held just a week before the ANC policy conference and the political posturing is in full swing. NUMSA secretary general, Irvin Jim, stated that ‘NUMSA will be seeking to make things very clear that the Freedom Charter can only be implemented through nationalisation of mines, and all key strategic and commanding heights of the economy that include the Reserve Bank, Sasol and ArcelorMittal'.
The mining industry is already reeling from months of similar talk. The leaked proposals to the ANC's policy conference talk about new resources taxes, instead of nationalisation. This would not be as dramatically disastrous, but would cripple the mining industry just the same.
The rhetoric is not just coming from the wilder fringes of South African politics. A meeting of Parliament's Portfolio Committee on Mineral Resources heard two ANC members claim that South Africa's natural resources were being ‘raped' by mining companies. The committee was told there were only three choices for the country: the status quo, which was unacceptable; nationalisation, which was unaffordable; or a much, much larger state-owned mining company.
If the debate in the ranks of the ruling party continues to be cast in those terms, the mining industry will likely be hit by new restrictions and unfair competition. Potential investors will be further disincentivised and the mining industry will continue to shrink. In February this year, South Africa's mining production figures were the lowest in 50 years.