With Deputy President having a week to solve the ANCYL conundrum, support for Julius Malema drops

Twenty-one percent of metro adults support what Julius Malema says and does. This is one of the results of a study released on Friday by TNS Research Surveys, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company.  This figure represents a drop in Mr Malema's popularity - in November, 27% of metro dwellers supported him.  At the time, 59% felt that he needed disciplining by the ANC.  The latest study - conducted just before the 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup - shows that only 26% feel that he has already been disciplined enough by the ANC: 53% disagree, feeling that he should be further disciplined.  Twenty percent gave a "don't know" response.

The company regularly conducts surveys on topics of general interest: these are conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%. 

Support for Julius Malema

The results of the study, conducted in the last week of May and the first week of June 2010, indicate that 27% support what Julius Malema says and does but that 71% (up from 56% in November 2009) do not - 8% gave a "don't know" response.  There are large differences by race but even amongst blacks, only 30% support him (down from 38%), 61% do not (up from 46%) and 8% gave a "don't know" response.  Amongst other race groups, there is 5% support amongst whites (down  from 8%), 4% amongst coloureds (down from 11%) and 7%% amongst Indians/Asians (5%).

Black males (33%) are the most likely to evince support (but this is down from 43% in November) with black female support at 27% (down from 34%).  Whilst younger people do show greater support for Mr Malema (25% for those aged 18 to 34 years compared with 10% amongst those aged 60 years and over) this too has dropped since November last year when it stood at 33%.

There are strong differences by area, this being partly a function of race distribution, with the most support coming from Gauteng (especially Soweto at 34%) and Bloemfontein and the least from Port Elizabeth and Cape Town

And the discipline question?

A majority of people (53%) feel that the ANC has not yet punished  Mr Malema sufficiently with 26%% feeling he has indeed been punished sufficiently and 20% saying "don't know".

• Total metro areas -  53% feel he has not yet been sufficiently disciplined
• Blacks - 41%; whites - 78%; coloureds - 75%, Indians/Asians - 65%

Not surprisingly, black males are the least likely to feel he should be censured further (41%).  Also not surprisingly, the figure changes with age: 49% of those aged 18 to 34 feel he should be disciplined further, this rising to 60% for those aged 50 years and over.   Area differences are strong with Cape Town and those in Port Elizabeth being most likely to feel he needs further disciplining at 62% strong at 71%.  Figures in brackets below are November figures.

                                                                                                                   %s

Our take-out

Support for Mr Malema in metro areas has declined significantly in the last six to seven months and most people feel that he has not been punished sufficiently by the ANC.  Even amongst the youth, his support shows a considerable decline.  Whilst his support base does show notable regional differences, nowhere is it more than one-third of people.

Technical note

The study was conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies were conducted by TNS Research Surveys (Pty) Ltd as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS Research Surveys. 

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, TNS Research Surveys, August 6 2010

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