KwaZulu-Natal Political Wave Crest Might drown Jacob Zuma if not riding carefully

The postponement of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Premier's appointment confirms shifting sands beneath the hegemony of the African Nation Congress-KwaZulu-Natal's (ANC-KZN) and what others have observed as a creeping Zulu nationalism within the national body politics.

Political parties, like any other institutions where power is the ultimate objective, tend to be characterised by cleavages, back stabbing and cliques. Unequivocally, appointment of the Premier candidate is the prerogative of the political organization. In the African National Congress scenario the President  as the head of the political organisation tend to make the ultimate decision.

The highly decorated deploying committee is just an advisory structure to the President. The argument of President's invisible hand at strangulating certain people's ambition to the position of power is correct and holds water. The manner in which the power hierarchy in any organisations is structured, gradually confirms what Leon Trosksy said "In inner-party politics, these methods lead, as we shall yet see, to this: the party organisation substitutes itself for the party, the central committee substitutes itself for the organisation, and, finally, a "dictator" substitutes himself for the central committee."

The ANC structures do not have a say in choosing the Premier or even the Members of the Executive Committee (MECs). The political provincial executive committee furnishes the National Executive Committee with a wish list of preferred Premiere candidates. In a number of cases we have witness the party President overlooking the submitted names. Ignoring the will of the majority makes mockery of democratic centralism but yield to dictatorship or Stalinism.

The chairpersonship of the ANC's provincial structure is not a natural candidate for the Premiership. Contrary, the party President is naturally state President. The Premiership is a highly political position. All the Premiers are supposed to be part of the President's power inner circle. The Polokwane ANC National Elective conference conferred more powers to the President when it agreed with Gauteng province proposal that the ANC is the centre of power, not its individual members. Gauteng, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and North West are led by Premiers who are not provincial chairpersons. Some of the Premiers are not even members of the provincial executive committee.

The current Premier and some MECs in Limpopo were not constitutionally elected by ANC members. The Limpopo scenario indicates that any bona fide member of the ANC can be deployed to any position of responsibility. Arguably, this means the President of the ANC decides on behalf of us all the South Africans, who shall lead the administration of our country. The deploying committee, with its perforated powers, cannot choose the individual to hold position of President of the Republic. His appointment it would be one of those smart strategies by the President.

In KwaZulu-Natal, ANC politics are like still water that runs very deep. On the surface, they project a facade of unity. Contests for positions are conducted in a dignified manner. The really ugly contest was between Jeff Radebe and Jacob Zuma. We dare not dig the bones of Lazarus regarding their contest. They say let bygones be bygones. Dr Zweli Mkhize has been constantly embarrassed by Sbu Ndebele when contesting for the chairpersonship.

The belief is that Dr Zweli Mkhize only managed ascending to the position of Premier as a compromise when Jacob Zuma became the President of the ANC. Many have concluded after examining the events of the past that Jacob Zuma has never fully managed to stamp his authority in the province. All candidates perceived to be backed by President Zuma have been constantly defeated. The latest casualty is Willies Mchunu.

In the past there was smooth transition of these political leaders to government positions. Jacob Zuma became the MEC for Economic Development. Jeff Radebe abandoned the KZN province to take up a national position. When Thabo Mbeki was President, he did not fail to appoint his then ally Sbu Ndebele as the Premier of the province.

Jacob Zuma did not hesitate with Dr Zweli Mkhize. The public of KwaZulu-Natal is waiting to test the validity of the grapevine regarding President Jacob Zuma's relationship with Senzo Mchunu. In case Senzo Mchunu is overlooked it would be a déjà vu when one recalls that Ace Magashu was all the time overlooked by Thabo Mbeki despite him being the most favourite candidate in his province of Free Sate.

Indeed, it is almost true what Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, a French journalist and a novelist, said "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" ("the more things change, the more they stay the same").

Dr Zweli Mkhize, wittingly painted the deploying committee of the ANC into a corner by appointing the current chairperson of the province as the acting Premier. Covertly he anointed Senzo Mchunu as Premiere.

Dr Zweli Mkhize's appointment of Senzo Mchunu can be understood as securing and prolonging his own political future. He needs KwaZulu-Natal support in the 2017 elective conference. In case the President appoint someone else it would be a vote of no confidence in Senzo Mchunu. Continuation of the suspense in appointing a Premier is a serious indictment to the quality of the provincial leadership and ANC bona fide provincial constituency.

The deploying committee was not going to have such a headache if we had people who are competent. In case the capacity argument is misplaced then surely there is a trust issue at the core. The ANC is not at the mercy of any other party to appoint its own - has a majority in the legislature. But, the party has difficulty in confirming Senzo Mchunu in the face of being chosen by the provincial ANC.

It has been almost three weeks that Senzo Mchunu has been acting as the Premiere. The delay to appoint the Premiere can  only mean that Senzo Mchunu is not the preferred candidate. He is not part of President inner circle. The constitution of the country is ultimately going to force that a decision be taken.

The sand shifting theory is becoming a reality in KZN politics. The hegemony of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal has always been fragmented. Unfortunately the existing political stalemate to appoint the Premiere is spilling over to the government functioning. The Premier's office is a crucial government department. It has its own programs.

One wonders about the provincial first lady's programs. We know for a fact that Senzo Mchunu's wife can't be an acting first lady. Currently the department of education is embroiled in a confrontation with SADTU. Hypothetically if SADTU can mobilize for the removal of Senzo Mchunu as the MEC of Education who shall intervene as the head of the province? One can suspect that currently the administrators in the Education Department and in Premier's office are in a state of limbo. It is appropriate to sympathize with Senzo Mchunu. It is beyond comprehension how a single person can execute duties of two such highly demanding offices.

His current portfolio of education is at a critical stage as matriculate candidates are preparing for their final examinations. My jaundiced eyes are fixated at SADTU, and I must suppress thoughts that it might all be a setup for Senzo Mchunu to fail. Besides governance in general, education and the year end matriculation examination preparations are at stake during this complex period.

Jacob Zuma, like any other leader, looks beyond his term in office. He would like to surround himself with people that he can truly trust. Premiership of the provinces is an office that any leader sitting in Pretoria would like to control. It is the same modus operandi that apartheid leaders used with the Bantustan administration. They placed people that would never challenge them. We are told that Willies Mchunu has a history with Jacob Zuma, whereas Senzo Mchunu has no historical link.

How come is it that President Zuma can develop trust for Senzo Mchunu overnight? Zuma was propelled to the highest office chiefly by KZN province. Can he manage to let it go? It must be noted that President Jacob Zuma has, since 1994, been actively involved in KZN provincial politics. He has also been constantly defeated in his endeavour to decide on the provincial leadership. Even his homestead is not under his political party.

President Jacob Zuma must tread extra carefully when appointing the Premier. It will determine a lot about his personal future in politics in the province and beyond. KwaZulu-Natal political wave crest might drown Jacob Zuma if is not riding carefully.

Benedict Xolani Dube is Senior Researcher at the Xubera Institute for Research and Development.

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