President Jacob Zuma is almost certain of re-election at Mangaung. Two years of his first term as president remain, with the prospect of power until age seventy seven in 2019.
His first term has been a failure. Characterised by drift, indecisiveness and no clear direction, he has been treated with discourtesy, downright rudeness and disdain by his own party members. He has carried on smiling through it all. One cannot believe the president wishes to be remembered as a failed president but his presidential term needs major surgery if the Zuma legacy is to mean something. Breaking the tripartite alliance may be what is required.
The ANC, Cosatu and the SACP together constitute the alliance. It served the ANC well as Cosatu mobilised the voters at every election and ensured there were no other competitors. But does the alliance still suit Cosatu or the ANC? Or does it only suit the SACP? More importantly, does it serve the interests of good government?
Cosatu suffered drastically in earlier years when some of its best people went to parliament, often leaving in charge inexperienced people not quite up to the standard of the first wave of 1994 politicians. Some who succeeded to power in the unions fell prey to the seductions of office. Clothes and cars and fancy restaurants; bling and the high life all beckoned. As Cosatu grew ever-closer to government, it grew further away from its members.
There were exceptions. Mr Zwelinzima Vavi developed into something of a national treasure in his outspoken telling of truth to power. But the main preoccupation of Cosatu and its unions seems to be politics and government, rather than the welfare of members, and still less, the interests of the unemployed.
Marikana and unrest in the mining sector sounded a wake-up call to Cosatu and the government. Whether Cosatu succeeds in restoring the confidence of union members remains to be seen. Many workers dismiss Cosatu and its unions as being irrelevant to their interests. Direct worker activism and wild-cat strikes with inflated demands have replaced the relatively peaceful and structured employer/employee relations existing for many years.
If Cosatu loses its grip on the workers, it becomes a much less attractive partner in elections and a decidedly unattractive partner in the business of government. Cosatu is now adopting more extreme positions to regain worker support, while wringing its hands and complaining that many workers are being intimidated by its competitors.
In government, extreme positions are unhelpful. Government must govern and sloganeering and noise by trade unions makes it more difficult, not less difficult, to govern. There must be constructive tension between government and the unions (and government and business); not cozying up. Especially if the unions have to adopt a critical attitude and be militantly pro-worker, the government has to say ‘no.'
Some in government have lost the plot. The rather screechy Minister Tina Joemat-Peterson praised the striking farm workers and congratulated them on their ‘victory' in waking the government to their plight. The government was now listening to them. No doubt other potential illegal strikers in every area of our economy will feel encouraged by this high praise from the agriculture minister whose cabinet colleagues must deal with the fall out.
Mr Tony Ehrenreich of Cosatu (who was rejected by the voters of Cape Town as the aspirant mayor) also encouraged the illegal strikes, ignoring the violence and the damage done to the economy and the future employment of the workers. Given half a chance he would no doubt encourage the platinum miners to carry on striking regardless of the consequences to the country, to the industry and to the miners themselves. But still, he is only doing his job as a union official, doing what Cosatu will have to do to reconquer its constituency.
Government economic policy is muddled and directionless because of the tension inherent in ministers being diametrically opposed to each other on ideological grounds. Clever and glib-tongued as he is, Minister Patel and the equally clever Rob Davies do not belong in the same tent as the gifted trio of Trevor Manuel, Tokyo Sexwale and Pravin Gordhan.
President Zuma was captured by those who put him in power. He created policy confusion by appointing ministers whose ultimate agenda is not an ANC agenda. Their agenda is that of the SACP. At least Minister Blade Nzimande of the SACP is not in an economic cluster ministry, limiting the damage he can do to growth and thus job creation. His fellow ideologues, however, all believe in the developmental state and believe passionately in more power for the state instead of empowering the private sector. The SACP people have faith in the ability of government to do everything when the evidence is plain that the government is not able to do very much. Where it could and should be active, it often fails.
The tripartite alliance suits the SACP because hundreds of them get elected as MPs, MPLs and Councillors. Most would fail if they stood as SACP candidates. Instead of electing ANC mainstream candidates - probably as social democrats - the ANC ends up with far too many people committed to dragging South Africa into the economic choices of a generation ago. This creates the confusion and prevents the government from uniting South Africans around the national priority of creating conditions for job growth for the many, instead of enriching the few and enraging the many. The interests of the unemployed are not and can never be the same as those of union members. Government needs to recognise this and act.
When President Zuma is safely re-elected next month he needs to take action to ensure his legacy is one of progress for South Africa, with ordinary people being significantly better off than they were at the start of his rule. He should start by loosening the tripartite alliance in the interests of a firm lead in one policy direction.
For some time to come, Cosatu is likely to see the ANC as the least worst party. Let Cosatu recover its significance and relevance and come to the fore at election time as an organiser of votes for the ANC, but not as not a governing partner. That will liberate both the ANC and Cosatu.
And let the communists row their own boat, if necessary as a small parliamentary party with a few fervent believers in past glories, rather like the Freedom Front Plus. Because the bon vivant Blade Nzimande has been so loyal and supportive, President Zuma could still reward him with a cabinet post, as he has done with Pieter Mulder.
Douglas Gibson is a former Opposition Chief Whip and Ambassador to Thailand. This article first appeared in The Star.
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