All of us should have learnt some lessons from the commotion at Cosatu House over the weekend. It seemed that the federation, with its 21 affiliated trade unions and 2 million members, was tearing itself apart, with grave consequences for its "ally," the ANC.
Actually, this did not happen. Cosatu's long-standing general secretary, Zwelinzima Vavi, was sent off on indefinite leave to await a disciplinary hearing on a sexual harassment complaint. No mass protests have been reported.
It appears that twice in the departure hall of Cape Town airport, Vavi spotted an attractive 26-year-old woman behind one of the desks, and in that imperious way some trade union bosses behave, he improperly (?) offered - and found - her a job with Cosatu.
You can guess the rest. The woman later alleged rape, and then withdrew her complaint. Vavi said anyway it was consensual. For all the public knows he awaits possible hanging. His mates say there will be no retreat - Vavi will leave a scorched earth behind him. If there is one asset Vavi has never lacked, it is vocal chords.
What is it with these politicians (world-wide)? At critical moments in their careers they unzip their pants - and a world crashes down on them and their families.
No doubt Vavi has a point about those gunning for him. He and his followers are anti the Zuma camp, unlike Cosatu's president, S'dumo Dlamini, who firmly backs the ANC leader. Vavi suspects the ANC wants to disable him and his followers before next year's elections when, incidentally, Zuma's five-year term as SA's president expires.
Will there be a serious breakaway? The most strident of Vavi's supporters is Irvin Jim, president of Numsa (National Union of Metalworkers of SA). But even he is wary of secession (in case he is left out among the ineffectual minority).
As for the ANC, it no doubt went into conclave over the goings on by its "ally" (with the ANC and SA Communist Party, Cosatu is a member of the Tripartite Alliance, to steer the forces of the good and the great to a final destination, wherever it is). The party shows no signs of suffering harm, yet.
What continues to amaze one is the stability of the ANC's support. It's lost a bit on the margins in by-elections (mostly to the Democratic Alliance), and the Western Cape is no longer under its suzerainty; but it is still comfortably holding onto its ward seats in those by-elections. This despite all the punishment the party has taken over the past seven years.
The answer, I suggest, is that SA remains an ethnocracy - dominance by ethnic groups. There is an unwritten barrier that ethnic groups must not cross. This explains why dwellers in hundreds of black townships are able to demonstrate against non-delivery of jobs, houses, amenities, etc. - and even burn down the mayoral buildings - and yet will still vote ANC in elections. Until this barrier is broken (if ever?), whither SA?
The lesson to be learnt is that however dysfunctional the state becomes, however much corruption and incompetence gnaw at its vitals, however much "governance" creates crises, there will not necessarily be an effective response from those controlling the levers of power, or indeed any response at all. So before we all get excited, or gloat over the disasters that overtake "governance," let us get the actual event in perspective. Don't expect a response from government that won't be coming - for some time anyway - and then get outraged when it doesn't arrive. For anyone committed to (possible) years of opposition, it's a long haul.
This is not to say there should not be constant opposition to misgovernance. This is the essence of a citizen's rights. But just blowing off steam serves no purpose.
Nomura, London based financial services firm, forecasts that at `SA's national elections due in May/June) the ANC will be down from its present 65.9% (reached in the 2009 national poll) to 56.2%. In 2009, it won 264 of the 400 seats in the National Assembly, against the opposition Democratic Alliance's 67 seats. Consider the leap that has to be made - even more so if the ANC fares better than Nomura expects.
Nomura thinks the predicted 10% ANC drop will be divided between the DA (under Helen Zille) and the two new parties, Agang (under Mamphela Ramphele) and the EFF (under Julius Malema "assuming (he) is not imprisoned for tax fraud". More votes is a real possibility for the DA, but Agang, the EFF and the new Workers and Socialist Party (WASP) could be flops. Ramphele appears to understand the logic of policies, but is a hopeless leader, arrogant and egocentric.
In a sense SA is confirmed as a two-party state: the ANC and DA - Jacob Zuma and Helen Zille. Zille is steering the DA on an ascendant, possibly risky, path: Africanising her party to attract black voters. She is going for a breakthrough. Some DA white members are restive, but if the DA does well in the elections as most analysts expect, the risk will be diluted. The DA will proceed along its path.
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