It seems that the acrimonious exchange of letters between former ANC chairman, Terror Lekota, and Jeff Radebe, replying on behalf of ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe, may be the precursor to a more significant political development.

The Sunday Times reported this weekend that a decision was taken "to formally announce the establishment of a new political party ... at a secret plenary meeting held in Johannesburg on Friday night. The meeting was attended by several disgruntled ANC heavyweights and representatives from various provinces."

There are a number of factors which have brought the ANC to this point. Its ultimate origins lie in Thabo Mbeki's failed efforts to secure for himself a third term as ANC president, something which deeply polarised opinion within the movement. The more proximate cause is the consequent humiliation of his supporters at Polokwane, and their failure to secure any real representation among the top six officials, the National Working Committee, or even the National Executive Committee of the ANC (see here).

There is also the time factor. At the moment the Mbeki camp still retains some kind of cohesion, but this will fade rapidly unless institutionalised in some kind of new party. Politics is currently uncertain and unsettled at the moment, and no single faction is in total command of the state. This will all change if the ANC, under its new leadership, is allowed to return to office in 2009 (effectively) unchallenged and with another overwhelming majority. So, if the Mbeki camp does not act soon, "the ordinary fate of falling powers" (De Tocqueville) awaits them - each of their members will end up following his own interest.

The key question is whether such an initiative, when and if it materialises, will constitute a genuine volkskeuring, or just an afsplintering. In other words, will the breakaway party be able to lay legitimate claim to the symbols and history of African National Congress, and seriously challenge for black African voters? Or will it just be a splinter party, drawing most of its support from the Xhosa heartland, but with no real prospect of ever challenging for power nationally? (For an enlightening comparison see here for an article by Hermann Giliomee on the 1982 split within Afrikaner nationalist politics).

One problem for any breakaway party is that it is not clear on what point of real principle it will be acting. A party without genuine convictions is unlikely to last out a long period in opposition. In his open letter Lekota raised issues around the Zuma camp's apparent disregard for constitutional niceties such as an independent judiciary, and its generally thuggish demeanour (as embodied in Julius Malema.)

But these are principles which the Mbeki administration tended to honour only in the breach. Once a split, or splintering, occurs it will be in the interests of the new ANC leadership to bury the breakaway party beneath proof of high level corruption and abuse of power through the Mbeki-era. Ironically, to do this properly they would need to draw on the skills and expertise of the Scorpions - the one state institution still able to investigate and expose this kind of malfeasance

In his reply to Lekota's recent open letter Radebe made reference to the infamous March 15-17 2002 meeting of the ANC NEC. It was here that former President Nelson Mandela had asked to address the meeting on HIV/AIDS and other matters, and had been treated by the Mbeki-ites - as one ANC veteran told Max du Preez shortly after - like "something the cat had dragged in." Radebe complained that as party chairman Lekota had "presided over a disrespectful discourse, which insulted comrade Nelson Mandela in the NEC you were chairing. In this regard, we challenge you to deny the fact that you did so. Your individual and sectoral interests prevailed upon you to officiate over such unwarranted attack upon an old man who thought of you as his own son. As a brotherly advice we suggest you visit Madiba and apologise."

This is a telling point. But this approach is not without its own risks, considering how many individuals in the new leadership used to be loyal to the recently recalled president. In particular, Radebe seems to have conveniently forgotten who it was who actually led the pack that went after Mandela. A contemporaneous Business Day article by Alan Fine reported:

"Mandela's presentation on AIDS and the state of the ANC generally was repeatedly interrupted by hostile heckling. He then had to leave for a while to attend a previously scheduled meeting with a visiting dignitary. In his absence, a co-ordinated flood of abuse was directed at him. It was apparently led by House of Assembly deputy speaker Baleka Mbete. She was followed in short order by [Steve] Tshwete, KwaZulu-Natal MECs Dumisani Makhaye and S'bu Ndebele and [Peter] Mokaba. The line punted, according to one source, was that Mandela had no right unilaterally to take the stance he had on AIDS - to encourage the more widespread distribution of antiretroviral medication. His action, it was said, had been undisciplined." (My emphasis)

One has to ask: before the Zuma camp promoted Mbete to the Deputy Presidency of the country, did they also ask her to apologise?

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