President Jacob Zuma is almost certain of re-election at Mangaung. Two years of his first term as president remain, with the prospect of power until age seventy seven in 2019.
His first term has been a failure. Characterised by drift, indecisiveness and no clear direction, he has been treated with discourtesy, downright rudeness and disdain by his own party members. He has carried on smiling through it all. One cannot believe the president wishes to be remembered as a failed president but his presidential term needs major surgery if the Zuma legacy is to mean something. Breaking the tripartite alliance may be what is required.
The ANC, Cosatu and the SACP together constitute the alliance. It served the ANC well as Cosatu mobilised the voters at every election and ensured there were no other competitors. But does the alliance still suit Cosatu or the ANC? Or does it only suit the SACP? More importantly, does it serve the interests of good government?
Cosatu suffered drastically in earlier years when some of its best people went to parliament, often leaving in charge inexperienced people not quite up to the standard of the first wave of 1994 politicians. Some who succeeded to power in the unions fell prey to the seductions of office. Clothes and cars and fancy restaurants; bling and the high life all beckoned. As Cosatu grew ever-closer to government, it grew further away from its members.
There were exceptions. Mr Zwelinzima Vavi developed into something of a national treasure in his outspoken telling of truth to power. But the main preoccupation of Cosatu and its unions seems to be politics and government, rather than the welfare of members, and still less, the interests of the unemployed.
Marikana and unrest in the mining sector sounded a wake-up call to Cosatu and the government. Whether Cosatu succeeds in restoring the confidence of union members remains to be seen. Many workers dismiss Cosatu and its unions as being irrelevant to their interests. Direct worker activism and wild-cat strikes with inflated demands have replaced the relatively peaceful and structured employer/employee relations existing for many years.