JOHANNESBURG - The Democratic Alliance led by Helen Zille is on course to win the Western Cape in the 2009 elections. This is according to the results of an opinion poll released by Ipsos-Markinor on Monday.

The poll was conducted in October 2008 shortly before the formal launch of the Congress of the People (COPE.) It found that DA support in the Western Cape stood at 42,8%. The ANC meanwhile received the support of 26% of those polled. 15,2% of respondents said they were undecided as to whom they would support.

This is an inversion of the support patterns that prevailed before the 2004 election. A Markinor poll conducted at the equivalent period before that election - in October/November 2003 - found the ANC had the support of 32% of likely voters in the province, as compared to the 16% of respondents who said they would vote DA. The ANC went on to win 45,25% of the vote in the Western Cape in April 2004, the DA 27,1% and the now defunct New National Party 10,9% (see Table 1).

The ANC's difficulties in the province do not end there. In her report on the poll Ipsos-Markinor's Mari Harris notes that "18% of ANC supporters in the Western Cape indicated that they might vote for an opposition party in the 2009 election. Should some of these intentions convert into action, the ANC could see some of its support going to COPE and other parties in the Western Cape."

The news is better for the ANC in Jacob Zuma's home province of KwaZulu Natal. This is the only other province where the ruling party failed to win an outright majority in 2004. The October 2008 poll found that the ANC enjoyed the support of 64,3% of likely voters, as opposed to 15,2% for the IPF, and 8,7% for the DA.

Only 7,1% of respondents said they were uncertain as to whom to vote for. By contrast in October 2003 Markinor found that the ANC enjoyed the support of 50% of respondents in KZN, as opposed to 20% for the IFP, and 10% for the DA. (See Table 2)

The one word of caution needed here is that opinion polls consistently underestimate support for the IFP. In 2004 the ANC only ended up winning 47% of the popular vote in the province, as opposed to the 36,8% won by the IFP. Harris notes that even in this province "it must be a concern to the ANC that 14% of their supporters could be voting for the opposition in the next election."

In Gauteng the Ipsos-Markinor poll found that the ANC enjoyed the support of 59% of respondents, the same as in October 2003. DA support was also similar at 18,6% (2008) as opposed to the 19% it polled in 2003. However, the percentage of uncertain likely voters was higher this time around at 17,2% in contrast to the 11% who were unable to give an answer in October 2003. (See Table 3)

Harris notes that in Gauteng "16% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election. Early indications are that the ANC will not take this province easily and would either have to work very hard at wooing back their supporters during the election campaign or should start looking for coalition partners to govern the province after the election."

In all the other traditionally ANC supporting provinces - with the exception of Mpumalanga - support for the ruling party is slightly down compared to October/November 2003, with the number of uncertain likely voters slightly up. In all these provinces between 11% and 19% of ANC supporters say they might vote for an opposition party in the 2009 election. (The sample size for the Northern Cape was too small to draw valid conclusions.)

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