Explaining volatility in the final stages of the foundation's tracking polls
24 May 2024
This report examines the volatility in the final week of the Foundation's South African election tracking polls. Towards the final days of a tracking poll it should be possible to see the trendlines flatten out as political opinion crystallizes immediately before an election.
However, towards the late stages of this tracking poll that is not happening. The reason for this is that an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support, as the ANC fractures, is causing a small share of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA.
Two significant events occurred over the past 10 days which appear to have particularly animated this trend. The first was the signing of the draft NHI legislation into law on 15 May. The ANC greatly miscalculated here in assuming that the signing would be read as a statement of social solidarity.
However, given that several million middle and aspirant middle-class people make use of private medical care both via insurance products they purchase as well as via out-of-pocket expenditure, the announcement was broadly interpreted as an attack on middle and aspirant middle-class standards of living.