Western Cape Government, Shadow Report on Safety Information, Murders in the Western Cape: A Case Study, September 27 2012

1. INTRODUCTION

"The more we study the major problems of our time the more we come to realise that they cannot be understood in isolation. They are systemic problems, which means that they are interconnected and interdependent." - Capa (1996)

Every year, a considerable allocation of resources is made to all three spheres of government to promote safety and to reduce crime. Most of these resources, amounting to an estimated R90.7 billion1, are allocated to National government, mainly because the government departments (South African Police Services, Justice and Correctional Services) that are responsible for safety and security fall under the control of the National Government.

 Provincial governments and local government, however, also allocate considerable resources to programmes and activities that are aimed at maintaining safety and security within the geographical areas for which they are responsible. For instance, during the current financial year 2012/2013, the Western Cape Government (WCG), through its department of Community Safety, allocated approximately R360 million, the Department of Social Development (Directorate: Social Crime Prevention), some R54.440 million and the City of Cape Town R1.19 billion to the portfolios Community Safety and Crime Prevention (including traffic offences).

 In order to maximise the impact of the resources allocated to increasing safety, it remains of critical importance that those limited resources are deployed in the areas where they are most needed and when they are most needed. Historically, these resources were allocated mainly on the basis of the crime statistics released by the National Minister of Police.

 With the development of its provincial strategic objective 5: Increasing Safety in support of National government's outcome 3: All people in South Africa are and feel safe, however, the Western Cape Government has embarked on a process aimed at seeking additional sources of information about the safety needs within the province. The reasons for doing this are two-fold. The first is the considerable delay in the release of crime statistics by the National Minister of Police, within time-lines which are not aligned to the rigid budgetary processes within government. This means that government's response to any migration of or increase in crime patterns is delayed by at least two years. The second reason for wanting to reduce the level of dependency on crime statistics is vested in the fact that crime statistics are reactive, meaning that by the time government becomes aware of such information, the harm has already been done.

 With this challenge in mind the Western Cape Government has embarked on a process aimed at the development of an integrated safety information system, which considers all potential sources of safety information at its disposal including, but not limited to, all operational information in the provincial and local spheres of government, the results of research documents and projects within and outside government, crime statistics, other research data bases, and so forth. The object of this process is to develop a more holistic view of the safety concerns faced by the various communities within the Western Cape, and to do so proactively in order to align available resources timeously, throughout all provincial government departments, with such safety concerns.

 This integrated safety information will also serve to identify crime trends and police reaction thereto so as to allow for the monitoring of police, by provincial government, in terms of section 206(3) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996 (the Constitution).

 The safety information which is collected in this fashion will form the basis of the Policing Needs and Priorities which must, in terms of section 206(1) of the Constitution, be determined by the Provincial Executive. This is important because the Constitution provides for the National Minister to be responsive to the often unique safety needs that exist in communities when developing policing policies, taking into account the policing needs and priorities of the province as determined by the Provincial Executive. Section 206(2) of the Constitution explicitly states that "The national policing policy may make provision for different policies in respect of different provinces after taking into account the policing needs and priorities of these provinces."

 If the policing policies are aligned with the safety concerns that exist within communities at national, provincial and local levels, the limited resources allocated to address such safety concerns can be significantly amplified by deploying such resources where and when they are most needed. This methodology should also facilitate a departure from the current one-size-fits-all approach to policing, allowing for different focus areas and needs within communities, many of which are based on the lasting effects of the racial segregation policies of the past. The current system of resource allocation, which is based on uniformity guided by a single set of rules and crime statistics, are systemically weak and increasingly unable to address the specific needs existing within communities.

 The collection and the analysis of safety information of this nature will also allow for the verification of crime statistics in as how it corroborates with such alternative sources of safety information.

 2. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

The data sources used to compile this report have been obtained mainly from SAPS crime statistics and the mortuary statistics which are kept by the Department of Health: Forensic Pathology. The data was reviewed and, for purposes of this report, aligned with the requirements of the 2011/2012 financial year.

 To test the reliability of the mortuary data in so far as it relates to crime statistics (in particular murders), it was compared with the published crime statistics of 2009, 2010 and

2011. A deviation of 3.8% for 2009, 1.5% for 2010 and 0.4% for 2011 was found, from which it is concluded that the analysis of the mortuary data is presented with at least a 95% confidence level. With a deviation of 0.4% for the 2011/2012 financial year

 It must, however, be stated that the comparison between the mortuary data and the crime statistics could only be done within existing limitations regarding the lack of details included in crime statistics.

 The 2011/2012 mortuary data was used to construct a profile of murder victims and to better understand the circumstances under which such murders were committed.

 3. CRIME OVERVIEW

Crime rates surveyed by the "United Nations, Eleventh United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems, 2003-2008, September 2010" show that out of a selection of 35 countries in the emerging markets in 2008, South Africa was ranked the second highest in terms of the murder rate (36.5). Colombia was rated first, with a murder rate of 40.1 per 100 000. The murder rate for South Africa was estimated to be 31.92 for 2010/2011 which reduced to 30.9 for 2011/20123

 On closer scrutiny and considering the behaviour-over-time effect, the number of murders committed in South Africa has, since 1994/1995, reduced by 38.6%, a significant margin. The number of murders committed in the Western Cape, over the same period of time, however, reduced by 15.4%.

 Although the direct link between gang activities and the reported murder rate is difficult to demonstrate due to the fact that the South African Police Service (SAPS) does not record gang related violence as a separate crime category, it is common cause that gangs and gang activities are closely linked to drugs and the drug trade. If this causal relationship is accepted, then the fact that the Western Cape, in 2010/2011, accounted for 46.8% of all drug related crimes in South Africa furnishes strong evidence that the Western Cape is more exposed than other provinces to gangs and gang activities. This is a major contributing factor to the high murder rates in the Western Cape.

4. MURDERS IN THE WESTERN CAPE

 The crime statistics as released by the National Minister of Police do not allow for a detailed analysis. It lacks critical information about the profile of victims of such crimes and about the circumstances under which the murders took place. This information, however, remains essential in order to allow all role-players, including the communities at large, to make informed decisions regarding their safety or how best they can contribute to increased safety within their communities and, generally speaking, within the Western Cape.

 The current report is in substance a case study aimed at sourcing information which may be used to supplement available crime statistics to provide a more holistic overview of the circumstances under which murders are committed in the Western Cape. The mortuary stats were used to build detailed profiles of the victims and circumstances with emphasis on corroboration between these two sets of data.

 In accordance with the latest available crime statistics for the financial year 2011/2012, the Western Cape recorded a total of 2 300 murders which demonstrates a murder rate of 43.5 per 100 000 people. This constituted the second highest murder rate in South Africa, with only the Eastern Cape recording a higher murder rate at 48 per 100 000 people. The national average murder rate amounted to 30.9 per 100 000 people for the same period.

 The Western Cape over the period 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 was one of two provinces which recorded an increase in murder rate. For 2011/2012 the Western Cape recorded a decrease of 1.6%. This translates to a murder rate which remained constant, over a period of three years, at about 44.3 per 100 000 people. These figures, however, should be regarded as somewhat speculative inasmuch as they do not take into account the actual migration patterns of people within the various provinces. The effect of migration patterns on coastal towns and holiday destinations such as the Western Cape is also not factored into this equation. More accurate information about the migration of people within South Africa (if any) will become available only once the results of the 2011 Census becomes known.

Notwithstanding this speculative aspect, murder rates arguably remain the most accurate indicator of crime since they rely on various sources of information held by different government departments and which are required for the disposal of the bodies of murder victims. Furthermore, murder is less likely to be under-reported than less-serious crimes. The current case study on safety information is hence justifiably based on the number of murders recorded in the Western Cape.

4.1. Ten police stations with most murders

 Although the Western Cape Province has 149 police precincts, according to the  2010/2011 crime statistics the ten police stations recording the most murders account for more than 44.1% (1020) of the total number of murders in the Province. This is corroborated by Forensic Pathology data showing that the said ten police stations accounted for 45.1% (1011) of the murders recorded by the Department of Health: Forensic Pathology Unit during 2011/2012.

Nyanga police precinct occupies the first position on both these lists. Nyanga police precinct has in fact recorded the highest levels of crime in the province and in the country during the past five years.

 Table 1: SAPS Crime Reported Murders 2010/2011 vs Mortuary data: 2011/2012

The Forensic Pathology data singles out five of the ten police stations that have consistently been amongst the ten police stations at which most murders were recorded.

These stations are Nyanga, Gugulethu, Khayelitsha, Milnerton and Mfuleni.

Table 2: Forensic pathology data comparison 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 calendar years

Source: Department of Health, Forensic Pathology

5. Profiling murder victims

As mentioned before, there are 149 police precincts in the Western Cape. Based on an analysis of the Forensic Pathology (mortuary and post mortem) data of the 2011/12 financial year, the following profile of murder victims has been compiled. This profile reflects the position at provincial level with an indication of the exceptions where applicable.

 5.1 Gender

Males = 87 %

Females = 13 %

Of the victims, 87.1% were males and 13% were females. This demonstrates a distorted or lopsided perception in favour of male victims, considering that the demographics of the province reflect a 48% to 52% distribution in favour of females.

The police stations at which females accounted for most murder victims are reflected hereunder in table 3.

Table 3: Most female murder victims: 2011/2012

5.2. Age

 Of the victims the majority (63.1%) were between the ages of 18 and 35 years, followed by those who were aged between 36 and 54 years (23.7%).

0-17 years: 6.3%
18 - 35 years: 63.10%
36- 54 years: 23.7%
55-64 years: 2.8%
65 < years: 1.1%
Unknown: 2.84%

Again when this information is compared to the demographics of the province it is clear that young men between the ages 18 and 35 years are more at risk as potential murder victims in the province.

 Table 4: Western Cape Population Estimates by age 2011

Source: Statistics South Africa 2011 Mid-year population estimates

5.3 Breakdown per race

 African 58.9%
Coloured 38.4%
White 2%
Indian 0.6%
Unknown 0.4

 The majority of victims (58.9%) were classified as African, followed by Coloured (38.4%). When comparing these figures to the demographics of the Western Cape as reflected in table 2, it is evident that Africans are most at risk to becoming victims of murder.

 Table 5: Projected Population by Race 2012

Source: ASSA,ASSA 2008 AIDS and demographic Model, March 2011

5.4 Nature of injury

Shot: 26.02%
Stabbed: 49.08%
Assault/ blunt trauma: 17.02%

Most murders were committed by stabbings, which accounted for 49% of all murder victims, followed by 26% shooting incidents and 17% severe assaults.

 In those areas which are known for gang violence, the number of murders committed by shooting was significantly higher than the provincial norm, as illustrated in the table below.

 Table 6: List of Police stations with most gunshot murder victims: 2011/2012

Source:, Department of Health, Forensic Pathology

The rate and number of murders committed in known gang areas has increased by significant margins since the year 2008, whilst over the same period of time little success has been achieved with the prosecution of murder cases in those areas. For instance, since 2007/2008 until 2011/2012, of the 197 cases of murder registered at the Phillipi police station (responsible for Hanover Park), there have only been 35 convictions translating to a 17.7% success rate over a period of five years. If the convictions are considered against the number of prosecutions finalised, the success rate is slightly higher at 25.3%. Indicating that, for the past 5 years, 75% of murders in Hanover Park and surrounding areas remain unpunished5.

The data furthermore demonstrates that the brutality and audacity with which many of these murders are committed, often with assassination-type, multiple gunshot wounds and often during day-time, is of particular concern and probably the driving force behind the current negative public opinion regarding safety in the Western Cape.

 Table 7: Committed murder in gang areas per calendar year

Source: Department of Health, Forensic Pathology

5.5 Murder by week days

The emerging pattern at the ten police stations recording most murder cases indicates that 54.2% of murders were committed over weekends and, for the most part, during the early hours of the morning, between 00h00 and 06h00.

 At provincial level, slightly fewer (52%) of the murders occurred over weekends. More than a third (34.1%) took place between the times 00h00 and 06h00 followed by the time-frame 18h01 and 23h59, which accounted for 28.3%.

Table 8: Province-wide weekdays and time 2011/2012

 5.6 Murder per month 2011/2012

 An analysis of the number of murders that occurred per month, indicate a "seasonal" effect, the lowest number of murders being recorded during the months of January and February and then building up to the peak season during the latter quarter of the calendar year. Although this pattern is repeated annually, at provincial level, it is not the same for all areas. Areas such as Nyanga demonstrate a very different pattern, with a significant decline of the number of murders over June and July and especially during December. By aligning available policing resources with these patterns, the impact of such resources may be significantly increased.

 Figure 2: Percentage of murder per month 2011/2012

When using "historic" data to verify the above pattern, namely the forensic pathology data for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, some variations have been identified, most notably those caused by the impact of events such as the 2010 Soccer World-Cup. This supports the argument that, if resources are deployed where and when most needed, they can impact on existing patterns. The pattern for the remaining three years has remained about the same with little deviation of any statistical significance.

 Figure 3: Murder per calendar month 2008-2010.

 6. COMMUNITY SAFETY PERCEPTION RESULTS

A recent Community Safety barometer study conducted by the Western Cape Government, making use of a sample of 13 376 people, has provided useful insights into the perceptions of people regarding safety and security. It is hoped that reports of this kind will inform people from all communities of the real facts surrounding crime and that this will encourage them to make better and more informed decisions concerning their own safety and the safety of the communities in which they reside.

Table 9: Perceived levels of safety by location during the day and at night compared to 12 months ago

7. CONCLUSION

The murder rate in the province has declined when compared with the situation pertaining some 10 to 18 years ago. Of concern, however, is the fact that it has declined at a rate significantly slower than in the rest of the country. This may be substantially due to political unrest in other parts of the country during the late 1980's and early 1990's.

Of particular concern has been the very marginal reduction in the murder rates of the Western Cape over the past three years. This can be verified only once the Census results are known, in particular in so far as they relate to the migration (if any) of people from one province to another.

This kind of information and analysis may assist all role-players to make better informed decisions regarding safety and security. This includes government in its deployment of limited resources when and where most needed. It is also clear, from the analysis, that crime patterns in general and murder in particular in the Western Cape are driven by only some 8% of the 149 police precincts in the province. This is an aspect which requires marked improvement.

 The crime patterns in the province do not constitute a "one-size-fits-all" situation applicable to all communities. Each community must be approached individually with reference to its specific needs, such as the necessity to apply gun-control in gang- infested areas and making provision for changing needs at different times of the day, week and year. This will, of course, warrant a careful alignment of the specific needs of individual communities with the deployment of available, and inevitably limited, resources. One can only hope that this revised approach may bear positive results in the future.

 Footnotes:

1 South Africa Survey 2010/2011; South African Institute of Race Relations: Johannesburg 2011; page 187

 2 South African Survey 2010/2011; South African Institute of Race Relations; Johannesburg 2011; page 739

3 South African Police Services: Crime Statistics 2011/2012: www.saps.gov.za

4 It should be noted that the SAPS crime statistics are presented per financial year and the forensic pathology data presented per calendar year.

5 Media release by Dan Plato, Western Cape Minister of Community Safety

8. REFERENCES

1. Department of Community Safety and Human Sciences Research Council,

2008. Violent Crime and Democratisation: The Value of an Integrated Creative Approach.

 2. Department of Health, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011. Forensic Pathology data. Email sent in August 2012.

 3. Department of Community Safety, 2012: Community Safety Barometer 2011/2012.

4. South Africa, 2012. SAPS crime statistics. Available online at www.saps.gov.za. Accessed on the 10th of September 2012

5. South Africa, 2012. South African Police Service (SAPS) Crime in the RSA for April to March 2010/2011, Available online at www.saps.gov.za. Accessed on the 10th of August 2012

6. Visser, A, 2012. Budget information. September13, 2012 13:18 email correspondence.

Issued by the Western Cape government, September 26 2012

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