Familiar with Lawrence of Arabia? It must be one of the greatest movies ever made, even if historians question much of its authenticity. Those extraordinary desert images, the haunting theme music, the unfolding of a colonial drama. Set in World War 1, it shows the remarkable Lawrence promising the Arabs (without authority) their independence in return for their support against the Turks. What a performance by Peter O'Toole!
Lawrence's promises predictably were not kept. At a post-war conference in Paris, the French got Syria and the British the mandates of Iraq and Palestine. Colonialism left the Arabs on their camels in the desert.
A scene which fascinated me was the (pre-Paris) race for Damascus between the Arabs under Lawrence and the British under General Allenby. British troops broke the Turkish ranks, but Lawrence found his own entrance into Damascus, and for two days the Arab tribes poured into the town hall to deliberate on their future.
It was their own, scarcely credible moment of triumph, but they wasted it on brawling, while the utilities under their authority ceased to function - the lights went out as the generators failed and when Lawrence turned on a tap no water came out of it. (Shades of Eskom?)
All developing countries should see Lawrence of Arabia, not only to confirm that, yes, that was how colonialism worked, but more important to compare the scene I have sketched with the way Jacob Zuma runs his government. Much like the Arabs in Damascus, the Zuma camp is immersed in the old brawls, personal rivalries, turf wars, easy-to-anger moods, ill-discipline.
In the Mail&Guardian (19/3/2010), William Gumede describes the current strife in the ANC. "Among black and white South Africans, there is a paralysing feeling of anxiety, drift and imminent collapse...a choking sense that the current generation in government may not have the ideas or political will to lead us out of this malaise...only a spring-clean of leadership, ideas and institutions will lift the gloom...In the public sector, appointments to senior government, state-owned enterprises and commissions must be opened up beyond the ANC membership pool, across colour and political affiliations."
Gumede raises a central issue here. Polokwane is hailed by the ANC today as South Africa's greatest democratic achievement since 1994: a rank-and-file revolt, leading to a formal ballot in which Thabo Mbeki is ousted as ANC president (and later as South Africa's president).
Was this "democracy" at work? Among 37 million Africans, yes, even if many were still in the throttlehold of "liberation" theology. But the country's 10 million minorities (whites, coloureds, Indians) had no share in that magic moment of "democracy," and later, when Zuma presented his first 32-member cabinet, his principal backer, ANC Youth League president Julius Malema, even angrily denounced the inclusion of minorities.
Malema, 29, issued a fatwa: Zuma's mistake would be overlooked this time, but the country should understand that the next time top appointments were made, they would have to go to Africans. The ANC includes coloureds and Indians with Africans in the category of "blacks," and constitutionally all blacks are equal. But Africans are more equal than the rest.
Zuma has never repudiated Malema. So he should arrange a screening of Lawrence of Arabia for himself, his cabinet and party officials - generally, to whom it may concern. He can tell them, too, after they have gloated over the manipulations of colonialism, to remember - Damascus. There they will see the Malemas in full throat.
An acceptable definition of democracy surely must be that not only are all South Africans electorally equal, but every member of a minority must have an equal chance to be elected as president. Obviously, this does not require an electoral change, but it certainly does require a very different kind of society, with a new cultural and racial mindset. Only then will South Africa, with its minorities, become a democracy.
Take as an example the current unrest in the African townships, almost nationwide: angry demonstrations against non-delivery of ANC promises, residents on the rampage: in other words, 100% fury against the ANC, followed by 100% pro-ANC voting at the next elections. This arithmetic is extravagant, but you get the point? What happened to Cope after its breakaway from the ANC? Sunk without trace?
In time, to be fair, personal rivalries, departmental turf wars and everyday infighting may peak in the ANC 2012, when the party re-elects Jacob Zuma as its president or replaces him, and a calm descends on the ANC. Or the infighting becomes worse. Which will it be?
It may not be just decline though. If the government has shifted economic policies to the Left, and they are failing, the restive African townships could force the introduction of more orthodox policies to meet the demand for "delivery"; and economic policies anyway could well become self-adjusting as visibly they fail to fulfil the planners' ideological prescriptions.
The possibly favourable political impact of these two factors should not be underestimated. On the other hand, the townships might turn first to populism, and then - as Zuma and his ministers have warned - the police and army will be unleashed under orders of "no mercy." Only then is Zuma likely to regret that he did not rein in the Malema's when he had the opportunity.
Besides the economic possibilities mentioned above, the opposition Democratic Alliance is another factor that offers hope in a bleak situation. Local government elections next year could raise the profile of African dissent, clarify the identity of contestants, and give voters a better chance to make informed choices.
Currently, there is much talk of agreements, pacts, coalitions and mergers. Some past experiences in these areas have been disastrous, but the DA leader Helen Zille, with exceptional skill, is bringing much-needed clarity to a muddled scene.
She explains (19/3/10): "In a coalition, the parties remain entirely separate, but form a joint government. It is easy to dissolve a coalition and thus it is easy to constitute a coalition with disparate parties that have a common set of core interests.
"A merger is an entirely different matter. We have learnt through bitter experience that a merger depends on the partners having a common set of values that they know how to translate into practice. Forming an alliance, through merger, is far more difficult than establishing a coalition. Both the risks and the benefits are potentially greater".
Zille (DA: 19/3/2010) dates the start of coalition politics in the "new South Africa" as March 1, 2006, when the ANC lost the election in the city of Cape Town and other municipalities. It was a "watershed," because it was the first time the ANC had been removed from office by the ballot box.
"In most of the municipalities where the ANC received less than 50% of the votes, opposition parties recognised what the voters' mandate was. The voters had chosen to oust the ANC and they wanted the opposition parties to stand together to do this, irrespective of the differences between them".
In 1996, seven parties came together: the DA delivered 91 councillors of the required 106 to reach a majority; the others were the African Christian Democratic Party, The African Muslim Party, the United Democratic Party, the Universal Party, the Freedom Front Plus and the United Independent Front. At first, the Independent Party was not part of the coalition, but within a year, following regular meetings between Zille and ID leader Patricia de Lille, the ID joined the coalition. (One sups with De Lille with a long spoon).
By the 2009 provincial and national elections, through regular meetings with De Lille, Zille "started to believe that the ID and the DA could move beyond coalition politics...We are now ready to take the next step in preparation for the 2011 local elections...The ID faces a unique opportunity. I am sure they know it."
Other suggestions have been put forward. President of the Congress of the People (Cope), Mosiuoa Lekota, says the starting point for a united opposition should be short-term campaigns, such as the next local government elections. Just what moves Cope intends to make as it comes out of hibernation is still to be seen.
Looking ahead, De Lille told a multi-party conference in Cape Town (March 20) that she will ask ID delegates for a six months' period to conclude negotiations on a new agreement. This is acceptable to the DA. By then the local government elections will not be far distant, and a scene will be set for further negotiations.
Much depends therefore on Zille getting her coalitions and mergers right, and of real cracks appearing in the "cultural barrier." Once these cracks appear, a new game begins.
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