Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary of State, Washington DC (and others), May 16 2008:

SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP MAY BE LOOKING TO OUST MBEKI

Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

1. On 14 May, PolOff met with Zuma advisor Mo Shaik who told her that Zuma is likely to assume the national Presidency before March or April next year, when parliamentary elections would normally be held. When asked if the Zuma camp had enough votes in Parliament (three-quarters) needed to call a vote of no-confidence, Shaik replied, "that would not be an issue."

However, he also asked PolOff if she had ever considered a scenario where Mbeki's entire Cabinet deserted him, forcing him to resign.

PolOff asked why Mbeki couldn't just appoint a new Cabinet, but Shaik answered with another question, asking "who would join Mbeki's cabinet now? It would be suicide." He also added that momentum is building in the ANC for Mbeki's removal and that the business community was "begging" them to do it.

2. PolOff also met on 15 May with a French diplomat, who confirmed that he was hearing the same thing from the Zuma camp and some other diplomats (especially the Germans), but said he did not believe Mbeki would back down so easily. He added that there is no evidence that Mbeki is willing to cave to the Zuma camp, pointing out that Mbeki is still putting off ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe's inclusion into his cabinet. (NOTE: When PolOff asked Shaik what position Motlanthe will assume, he snidely said, "Why don't you ask your friend Mbeki?" END NOTE)

3. BIO NOTE. Meeting Shaik is always work, but this meeting was particularly pointed and painful, with Shaik coming across as vengeful, insecure, and antagonistic. Over time, PolOff has managed to build some rapport with him. For example, during PolOff's last meeting, Shaik admitted he was looking forward to the birth of his first child (whom he jokingly referred to as "the little dictator"), and even sent PolOff an SMS when his wife went into labor. However, during this meeting (which he called), he refused to be drawn into any personal conversation.

Instead, Shaik spent much of the hour and a half berating the United States in general (for "never recognizing a bus when it hits us"), but also the FBI and State Department in particular. He made a point of telling PolOff that "he knows all about the FBI's role in selling South Africa the idea of a law-enforcement agency with no oversight" i.e., the Scorpions), going so far as to name former NLEA officers. He implied the FBI purposefully sold South Africa an idea that the U.S. would never allow on its own soil. He also repeatedly criticized the recent trip by Assistant Secretary Frazer for coming to the continent to talk to leaders about Zimbabwe, calling U.S. officials "stupid and arrogant."

4. COMMENT. Shaik is right in pointing out that there are many in the Zuma camp who wish to take full revenge on Mbeki and end his tenure early. Shaik, more than anyone, likely personalizes the issue given the fact he blames the Scorpions for sending his brother to prison (not because he was guilty). However, it is unclear if the Zuma camp has reached a tipping point, especially within Mbeki's cabinet, which has remained virtually unchanged for his entire tenure.

The Zuma camp has definitely gained a number of converts since Polokwane simply because people want to stay on during the next administration, but whether it is enough to oust Mbeki is unclear.

5. COMMENT CONT'D. However, there are also advantages to allowing Mbeki to stay in power for his full term, a fact even Shaik has admitted in previous meetings. Mbeki has had better days politically, but the Zuma camp, for all its talk, is unlikely to come in and fix all of South Africa's problems overnight. Combating crime, solving South Africa's electricity shortages, increasing employment, improving service delivery, and convincing Zimbabwean President Mugabe to step down are not easy fixes. The fact is the longer Mbeki stays in power, the better Zuma will look -- at least in the short-term -- when elections come around next year.

BOST

Source: Wikileaks via News24.com

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