ZANU (PF) has made some significant mistakes in the past but I must say its policies during the first decade of independence have created some positive factors that can hardly be reversed
You are probably wondering which planet I am from or what I have been smoking lately but let me share with you some of my contrarian thoughts. After reading Roy Bennett speech made in Oxford recently, I can't help but agree with much he has to say with regard to the political culture in Zimbabwe (see here).
However as analysts, sometimes we fall in the trap of analyzing macro issues rather too much and reaching conclusions that minimize our perception of future opportunity while enlarging current and seemingly insurmountable problems. I am of the opinion that despite the current problems my country faces, the future holds significant opportunity that we are likely to miss unless we begin to change our attitudes.
My recent visit to Zimbabwe confirms that there is some disconnect between what we read and what is actually happening on the ground. There is no doubt in my mind that Zimbabwe deserves a better leadership and that to large extent the quality of life could be better but that should not blind us to the opportunities that exist. I am also a firm believer that I thoughts become things and by changing our thoughts about circumstances ,we can change them for the better.
My interpretations have exposed that through hardship, Zimbabweans in general have become more entrepreneurial in their approach. They no longer look to government as the sole provider of economic opportunity as in the case in countries such as South Africa. Zimbabweans have become more resilient and somehow empowered particularly in their attitude and demeanor and one can sense a quiet self-confidence despite the present macroeconomic tribulations.
Significant opportunities exist in rebuilding the country and reviving the economy and all Zimbabwe needs is money. I have no doubt that the country is likely t rebound within a very short space of time once the politics have been resolved. Infrastructure, telecoms, agriculture, media, manufacturing and mining present some very stimulating opportunities for the future and I would advise those Zimbabweans in the Diaspora to seriously consider investing at home before the opportunity space moderates.
It is disturbing however to note that the media sector is still rather constrained and there does not seem to be the free flow of information and robust public debate on pressing socio economic and political issues. It is also evident that selfish ambition by most, particularly those in public office, is reducing or arresting the country's intrinsic potential.
On the economic front I would argue that the macro economics we are so competent at analyzing are not reflected in the micro economics. True there is a dire shortage of cash and the economy is being constrained by lack a capital. The existence of sanctions, although targeted at individuals, has however, created a rather unfair negative perceived country risk that ultimately has a negative impact on ordinary and innocent Zimbabweans. Because of sanctions, ordinary Zimbabweans cannot get employment as most companies have closed or are operating at minimal capacity because of lack of access to credit. The removal of sanctions is therefore critical to increase the opportunity space for Zimbabweans in general and their continued existence cannot be supported.
An attractive development or unintended consequence is that, a large number of middle class Zimbabweans no longer look to be employed and you now have a vibrant and hungry sector of middle class entrepreneurs who are producing or supplying goods to the economy. This in my view is an irreversible positive development that can only stand the economy in good stead in the future.
Added to this is the indigenization philosophy which is inadvertently shifting economic aspirations in general and creating new hope. Although its implementation is under question, I however think that there is nothing inherently evil or disadvantageous in this policy and those who are prepared to embrace it, be they black or white can only benefit in the future.
Zimbabwe's natural resources base, its skilled labor force, peaceful communities and excellent climate present advantageous opportunities for the future. The new entrepreneurial spirit evident within the black middle class adds a positive spin. These factors, in my view, have tended to be immune to the politics of the country and for me create misunderstood opportunities that must be taken advantage of.
ZANU(PF) has made some significant mistakes in the past but I must say its policies during the first decade of independence have created something that can hardly be reversed- an educated middle class that has a strong work ethic. The ownership of land and the drive to localize ownership of other assets are creating a strong platform for future growth. My anticipation is that this process must be depoliticized so that it becomes a non partisan wholesale empowerment drive geared to reposition the economy as a whole.
If you add a participative democracy, respect for human rights, an open media and access to capital to all this, you are likely to get a formidable Zimbabwe that can once more become a significant economy within the region.
It is my view therefore that, despite its current political problems, Zimbabwe is poised for an incredible recovery and an awesome future.
Vince Musewe is an independent economist currently in Harare and you may contact him on [email protected]
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