Adjusting to Change
The only real constant in world history is change, in all its different forms. Anyone who thinks otherwise will soon be overwhelmed by the changes taking place around them.
I have been watching the dialogue taking place around the globe on the subject of climate change and global warming. I think that both are a reality and in many ways the epicenter of this global phenomenon is southern Africa. Experts I have been talking to, all say that this part of the world is going to be the most affected by the changes that are taking place.
Last year I watched as time and time again the weather circled around Zimbabwe leaving us dry and thirsty. This year, that has been multiplied several times. The El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is the worst in many years and dry, very hot conditions have dominated over the whole region. Last week, in the middle of our wet season, there was not a cloud from Lusaka to Cape Town. In Harare we are sitting on 150 to 160 mls of rain so far, while in Bulawayo we are sitting on less than 10 mls of rain since October the 15th.
Gweru City Council has less than 4 months water left in its supply dams. Bulawayo will commence rationing at 60 per cent of full demand this month and the major Cities of South Africa will all be subject to water restrictions for the next year. The South African maize crop – the basic staple food, is estimated at barely 3 million tonnes, the Zimbabwean crop estimate by traders and farmers is only 200 000 tonnes. South Africa will have to start importing very soon and will require at least 7 million tonnes by the end of March 2017.
In Zimbabwe we need 2,7 million tonnes to meet demand in full until the 2016/17 crop is delivered and current stocks stand at about 350 000 tonnes including confirmed contracts for 90 000 tonnes which is in transit. This means we have to import 2,2 million tonnes over the next 18 months or 120 000 tonnes a month. The cost of this operation will be nearly a billion dollars and will present very serious logistical problems – Beira, the main Port of entry, being limited to perhaps 20 000 tonnes a week.