President Zuma's approval level in metro areas recovers from its catastrophic fall in the first quarter

President Jacob Zuma's end-2009 approval rating was 58%.  However, his figures in February this year showed a drop to 43% - the biggest drop seen in a President's rating in 15 years.  His approval rating has now partially recovered to 51% at the end of May.  This is according to a survey released today by TNS Research Surveys, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company, which has been tracking approval levels of the incumbent President for many years, including our new president, President Jacob Zuma.  The studies are each conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

President Zuma's approval level regains some ground

The improvement to 51% in the President's approval level in metropolitan areas in May 2010 represents a return to levels seen at the time of the 2009 election and are just below his overall average from April 2009 to May 2010.  His current all-time highest rating was 58% at the end of 2009.

By comparison, former President Mbeki's approval ratings were in the mid to low 30s from 1999 to 2002, only beginning to rise in 2003 before hitting a high of 66% in both 2004 and 2005.  He ended his term on a rating of 34%.

But many have still not made up their minds

The latest study shows that the proportion of fence-sitters is still quite high at 16% - but a decline from the low 30s and high 20s seen in 2009.   However, the net sentiment (approve minus disapprove) is at its second lowest level (+18) since he took office, albeit well up from the figure of +2 seen in November.

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

The decline in February occurred at a time when the President's personal life was very much under the spotlight and there were growing service delivery protests. 

The latest study was conducted just prior to the start of the 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup, and these issues as well as service delivery protests were much less in the public eye.  In addition, there was much media coverage of the President's visit to the Sweetwaters informal settlement on 17 May 2010.

Who is more or less positive?                                  

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race.  This is best illustrated in the following table:

* * Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

·         For blacks, after a strong rise in approval levels from the elections onwards, they are now just below the overall average since the election.

·         For whites, there was a remarkable positive shift beginning over the election period and continuing into September.  However, sentiment has now also moved to levels just below the overall average.

·         For coloureds, initially sentiment moved from the negative into a "don't know" area - but this has now reverted back to a negative stance.

·         For Indians/Asians, there is an almost equal split between those who approve and those who disapprove of the President's performance.

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings.  These are outlined below (figures in brackets represent February 2010 - there are improvements in most areas):

·                    Gauteng - 57% (up from 47%)

o   Johannesburg and environs - 60% (up from 50%)

o   Johannesburg excluding Soweto - 54% (up from 48%)

o   Soweto - 70% (well up from 50%) (highest approval level and best improvement)

o   East Rand - 64% (up from 54%)

o   West Rand - 62% (up from 47%)

o   Vaal Triangle and South Rand - 47% (49%)

o Pretoria - 45% (up from 35%)

·                    Cape Town - 24% (23%) (lowest)

·                    Durban - 60% (up from 49%)

·                    Eastern Cape - 51% (up from 39%)

o  Port Elizabeth - 42% (up from 36%)

o  East London - 71% (well up from 47%)

·                    Bloemfontein - 65% (up from 48%)

Other notable differences

Partly in line also with race, younger people are more positive about the President (55% of those under 34 years approve of the way the President is doing his job (up from 45% in November)), this dropping to 45% (up from 32%) for those aged 50 years and more.

Our take out

President Zuma's approval levels, as measured in late May have partly recovered from a very sharp fall in February.  This partial recovery is across the board, in almost all metro demographics.  At 67%, the black metro population shows the highest approval levels (up from the 58% of February 2010).

Technical note

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies were conducted by TNS Research Surveys (Pty) Ltd as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS Research Surveys. 

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, director of research and innovation at TNS Research Surveys, August 16 2010

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