How is Government Performing ahead of the State of the Nation 2010?

2010 is the year that South Africa gets showcased on the international arena like never before and will, no doubt, be the focus of much scrutiny both at home and abroad. Whilst tourists coming to watch the 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup will be more focussed on the soccer, weather and the scenery, South Africans are keen to see some tangible benefits from hosting the ‘greatest show on earth'.

President Zuma's State of the Nation speech at the opening of Parliament this week will set the tone for the next few months and give us an indication of how and where government hopes to improve the lives of its many citizens who still live in dire socio-economic circumstances. Zuma's government has been characterised by its ‘down to earth', people-centred approach and public opinion over the last few months has responded favourably. If this good start is followed by effective delivery, 2010 could be a highlight for all concerned - not just the soccer enthusiasts!

Summary of findings

• As at November 2009, 77% of South Africans felt President Zuma was doing his job well.
•  70% of South Africans felt the National Government was doing its job well.
• This optimism exists despite the feeling that government has made little or no progress on reducing the crime rate, fighting corruption and creating jobs.
• Government is credited with improving performance on implementing affirmative action and ending political violence.
• For the first time since November 2007, now more than half the population (56%) feel the country is headed in the right direction.

The above headline findings are results from an Ipsos Markinor public opinion survey of 3374 South Africans conducted during November 2009. The sample of 3374 accurately mirrors the South African population and the margin of error is between 0.7 and 1.7%.

The aim of the survey is to monitor government performance by gauging public opinion on the performance levels of the President, National Government and on key performance areas.

Performance of President Jacob Zuma and the National Government

At the start of 2010, President Zuma is in an enviable position in terms of his public rating. He begins the year with 77% of the population agreeing that he is doing his job fairly well or very well. This is the highest rating for a President since May 2006 and will more than likely shore up his credentials in the light of the tough public relations press he is currently receiving about his personal life. Whilst his personal actions seem to be the constant focus of the media, and of which most was negative, the South African public is clearly positive about his job performance as President thus far and only time will tell whether the current PR scandal will somewhat erode this high measure of support or have little or no effect at all.

The National Government is also viewed in a very favourable light and 70% of the population believe it is doing its job fairly well or very well. This is a vast improvement from the end of 2008 (after the disruption of Mbeki's recall) when just over half the population felt positive about the national government and its job performance.

Performance of National Government in specific focus areas

Ipsos Markinor has been tracking issues of delivery and views on the government since 1994 and produces a 6-monthly report, titled "Government Performance Barometer". In this report we probe 23 areas of delivery. The different areas in the study focus on social, political and economic issues. Respondents are asked to indicate whether they think the government is doing "very well", "fairly well", "not really well" or "not at all well" on each of the delivery areas.

The results of this survey can be summarised in the format of a traffic light. All areas where the government receives a positive score of up to 50% are classified as "red light", thus areas that need urgent action and attention; positive scores of 51% to 74% are classified as "orange light", thus areas that need attention, but not as critically as "red light" areas; a score of 75% and more receives a "green light", thus the performance in this area is regarded as exemplary as it meets with the approval of at least three quarters of South Africans.

The area of fair distribution of welfare payments (grants) to those who are entitled to them has been at the top of the list (received the "green light") for some years now, but the same key areas seem to remain at the bottom of the list (and receive a "red light"):

• Reducing the crime rate
• Maintaining transparency and accountability
• Fighting corruption
• Creating jobs and reducing unemployment

Two areas - implementing affirmative action and ending political violence - have graduated from "red light" status to "orange light" status and, therefore, signify an improvement in government performance on these specific issues over the last six months.  The rest of the allocation of performance areas remains exactly the same as the previous survey with little or no movement.

Is the country headed in the right or wrong direction?

As of November 2009, 56% of the population believe the country is headed in the right direction. Whilst this is not as positive a rating as afforded the President and the National Government, it does show a steady improvement over the past year. It is also a more complex measure in that South Africans would  discount the economic recession when thinking about the direction that the country is heading

In November 2008, a dismal 38% of the population felt the country was headed in the right direction. This was after the December 2007 ANC conference in Polokwane when President Mbeki received a vote of no confidence and Jacob Zuma became the President of the ANC. The months of ensuing in-fighting in the governing party affected the public mood and most South Africans felt fairly pessimistic about the direction in which the country was headed. This improved somewhat to 43% in May 2009, once Thabo Mbeki stepped down as President (24 September 2008) and Kgalema Motlanthe became caretaker President until the April 2009 election.

In the aftermath of the election and Jacob Zuma's ascendancy to the Presidency, internal politics seems to have stabilised somewhat with little or none of the leadership battles of the previous year. Optimism in the country has, therefore, generally improved and the number of South Africans believing that the country is headed in the right direction has climbed to the current 56% in November 2009.

Despite his personal battles, President Zuma  starts the New Year in a strong position with public opinion very positive about his Presidency and the performance of National Government. Hopefully 2010 will be a year of consolidating this public goodwill and making real progress in the areas where government has not fared so well in the past. 

Statement issued by Ipsos Markinor, February 10 2010

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