CONFIDENTIAL
R 171512Z JAN 90
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5365
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
AMCONSUL DURBAN
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY HARARE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
C O N F I D E N T I A L
LONDON FOR KOLKER, PARIS FOR FENDRICK
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
SUBJ: ESSA MOOSA TALKS ABOUT MANDELA AND OTHER TOPICS
¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
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SUMMARY
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¶2. ATTORNEY ESSA MOOSA WHO SPOKE WITH HIM LAST WEEK, SAYS MANDELA FULLY EXPECTS THAT ON FEBRUARY 2 DE KLERK WILL ANNOUNCE THE UNBANNING OF THE ANC, PAC AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, THE LIFTING OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY, THE RETURN OF POLITICAL EXILES TO SOUTH AFRICA, AND THE CONFIDENTIAL
RELEASE OF SEVERAL POLITICAL PRISONERS INCLUDING MANDELA HIMSELF. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ANNOUNCEMENTS WOULD COME SWIFTLY AFTER DE KLERK'S SPEECH AT THE OPENING OF PARLIAMENT.
¶3. THE SAG IS CONCERNED OVER ANC RELATIONS WITH THE SACP AND OVER THE WORKING DEFINITION OF "ONE MAN ONE VOTE," AMONG OTHER "WHITE FEARS" ISSUES. MANDELA HAS PASSED DE KLERK'S "PROPOSALS" ON THESE TOPICS TO THE ANC.
THE ORGANIZATION'S ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT IS WILLING TO NEGOTIATE EVEN WHILE APARTHEID LAWS REMAIN IN PLACE MAY BE PART OF THE ANC'S REPLY TO THE SAG.
¶4. TENSIONS IN THE COMMUNITY HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY THE SAG'S TACTIC OF OPENING DIALOGUE AND A COMMITMENT SHARED BY THE MDM TO REDUCE CONFRONTATIONS.
WHILE MAINLY OF BENEFIT TO THE SAG, THIS PERIOD OF CALM COULD ALSO FAVOR THE ANC'S NEW STRATEGY OF PRAGMATISM.
¶5. RAISING THE PENDING VISIT OF JESSE JACKSON, MOOSA EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT IT WOULD BE BAD FOR THE STRUGGLE IF JACKSON ADVOCATED LIFTING SANCTIONS UPON HIS RETURN TO THE US. END SUMMARY.
¶6. IN A HALF HOUR CONVERSATION WITH POLECONOFF. ESSA MOOSA. THE WESTERN CAPE UDF'S LAWYER AND ONE OF THE ATTORNEYS WHO MET WITH MANDELA LAST WEEK, MADE THE F0LLOW- ING REMARKS:
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MANDELA RELEASE WILL BE ANNOUNCED FEBRUARY 2 IN PARLIAMENT
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¶7. MANDELA MADE IT QUITE CLEAR THAT HE FULLY EXPECTS PRESIDENT FW DE KLERK TO MAKE SEVERAL MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENTS IN HIS FEBRUARY 2 SPEECH AT THE OPENING OF PARLIAMENT.
DE KLERK WILL ANNOUNCE:
-- THE UNBANNING OF THE ANC, PAC AND OTHER POLITICAL
- ORGANIZATIONS;
-- THE END OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY;
-- THE RETURN OF POLITICAL EXILES TO SOUTH AFRICA;
-- THE RELEASE OF A NUMBER OF POLITICAL PRISONERS,
- INCLUDING NELSON MANDELA.
¶8. THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS WILL NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT ALL THE ITEMS LISTED WILL TAKE EFFECT AS OF THE TIME OF THE SPEECH. BUT FIRM PLANS AND A COMMITMENT TO CARRY THEM OUT SWIFTLY WILL BE PART OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT.
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WHERE WILL MANDELA BE RELEASED?
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¶9. MOOSA SIDESTEPPED A QUESTION ABOUT WHERE MANDELA'S HOME BASE WOULD BE UPON HIS RELEASE. HE ONLY REMARKED THAT MANDELA CAN TELL THE SAG WHERE HE WANTS TO BE RELEASED AND WHERE HIS FIRST PUBLIC APPEARANCE WOULD THUS TAKE PLACE. SENTIMENTALLY, SAID MOOSA, PAARL (WHERE MANDELA IS NOW IN PRISON) SEEMED TO APPEAL TO MANDELA. (COMMENT: BUT POLITICALLY AND PRACTICALLY THIS MAKES LITTLE SENSE. JOHANNESBURG SEEMS BY FAR THE MOST SUITABLE VENUE. END COMMENT.)
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R 171512Z JAN 90
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5366
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
AMCONSUL DURBAN
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY HARARE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
LONDON FOR KOLKER, PARIS FOR FENDRICK
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
SUBJECT: ESSA MOOSA TALKS ABOUT MANDELA AND OTHER TOPICS
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DE KLERK-ANC COMMUNICATION THROUGH MANDELA
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¶10. WHEN HE MET SEVERAL WEEKS AGO WITH MANDELA, DE KLERK PROVIDED A SET OF PROPOSALS AND ASKED FOR THE ANC'S RESPONSE. MANDELA HAS NOT DISCUSSED THOSE PROPOSALS IN ANY DETAIL WITH PEOPLE HERE (AT LEAST HE DID NOT DO SO WITH THE LAWYERS' GROUP OF WHICH MOOSA WAS A MEMBER) BUT HE DID TRANSMIT THEM TO ALFRED NZO AND THABO MBEKI.
MOOSA BELIEVES (PIECING TOGETHER STRAY REMARKS WHERE AND THERE) THAT THE PROPOSALS RELATED PRINCIPALLY TO THE NEED TO ALLAY WHITE FEARS. SPECIFICALLY, HE THINKS ONE ISSUE WAS THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE ANC TO THE SACP (SOUTH AFRICAN COMMUNIST PARTY) AND ANOTHER WAS THE DEFINITION OF ONE MAN ONE VOTE.
¶11. ASIDE FROM BEING AN EFFORT TO SEIZE THE MORAL HIGH GROUND BY PUBLICLY DEMONSTRATING FLEXIBILITY, THE ANC'S RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT IS PREPARED TO NEGOTIATE EVEN WHILE APARTHEID LAWS LIKE THE GROUP AREAS ACT REMAIN IN PLACE MAY BE PART OF THE ORGANIZATION'S REPLY TO DE KLERK.
¶12. MOOSA UNDERSTANDS MANDELA TO HAVE WORKED OUT A GAME PLAN FOR "NEXT STEPS" IN A NEGOTIATION WITH DE KLERK SO AS TO ENSURE THAT HE IS NOT RELEASED FROM PRISON INTO A VACUUM.
¶13. MANDELA HAS TOLD VARIOUS VISITORS THAT HE HAS A GOOD OPINION OF DE KLERK AS A SINCERE INDIVIDUAL EVEN THOUGH HE REGARDS HIM AS STILL THE LEADER OF THE NATIONAL PARTY AND NOT MORE THAN THAT.
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COMMITMENT ON SAG AND MDM SIDE TO REDUCE CONFRONTATION
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¶14. MOOSA AGREED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH LESS TENSE THAN EVEN SIX MONTHS AGO. FOR EXAMPLE, LAST YEAR THE RETURN TO SCHOOL RESULTED IN THE USUAL ACCUSATIONS AND PHYSICAL CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING (DET), AIDED BY THE POLICE, AND STUDENTS SUPPORTED BY PARENTS, TEACHERS AND THE MDM.
THIS YEAR THERE IS AN EVEN WORSE CRISIS DUE TO LACK OF SPACE IN BLACK SCHOOLS AND THE FAILURE OF OVER 100,000 STUDENTS TO PASS THEIR "MATRIC EXAMS." YET THERE IS A NEW SPIRIT OF DIALOGUE AT THE DET AND ACTIVISTS ARE THEREFORE ABLE TO CHANNEL STUDENT FRUSTRATIONS IN A CON- STRUCTIVE MANNER.
¶15. THE SAG'S NEW "TACTIC" OF ALLOWING DISSENT AND ENGAGING IN DIALOGUE INSTEAD OF STONEWALLING "IS WORKING FOR THEM," MOOSA SAID. HE ACKNOWLEDGED, HOWEVER, THAT IT COULD ALSO, IF DEALT WITH POSITIVELY, WORK FOR THE MDM AND ANC. THOUGH AN ABSENCE OF DIRECT CONFRONTATION IS "DEMOBILIZING FOR THE MASSES," FEWER RAW NERVES AMONG ACTIVISTS COULD MAKE THEM MORE AMENABLE TO THE ANC'S INCREASINGLY PRAGMATIC STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH THE SAG.
THAT STRATEGY, MOOSA SAID, IS NOT UNDERSTOOD BY MANY ACTIVISTS, ESPECIALLY YOUTH, WHO FEAR A SELL-OUT OF THEIR CAUSE. THERE REMAINS A LOT TO DO TO EXPLAIN THE VIRTUES OF FLEXIBILITY TO THEM.
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PAC AND BC -- A THORN IN THE SIDE
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¶16. MOOSA DESCRIBED THE CONFERENCE ON A DEMOCRATIC FUTURE AS "NOT A POSITIVE EXPERIENCE IN COOPERATION."
HE OPINED THAT THE PAC AND BC COULD TURN OUT TO BE A REAL PROBLEM. HE EXPECTS THEM TO REMAIN ALOOF, SNIPING AT THE ANC'S POSITIONS FROM THE SIDELINES AND STIRRING UP YOUNG PEOPLE IN PARTICULAR.
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JESSE JACKSON VISIT
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¶17. MOOSA INQUIRED ABOUT THE DATES FOR JESSE JACKSON'S VISIT AND EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT JACKSON HAD MET WITH THE PRESS AT SOUTH AFRICAN AMBASSADOR KOORNHOF'S RESIDENCE. MOOSA FEARED THAT THE SAG WAS GOING TOO GOOD A JOB OF CULTIVATING JACKSON AND THAT HE MIGHT RETURN TO THE US AND ANNOUNCE THAT SANCTIONS SHOULD BE LIFTED. MOOSA APPEARED TO HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN KOORNHOF'S PERSUASIVE ABILITY THAN IN THAT OF THE SACC LEADERSHIP WHICH IS HOSTING THE JACKSON VISIT.
BAQUET
Issued by Wikileaks, November 29 2010
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