South African President Thabo Mbeki's current diplomatic efforts are aimed at preventing world outrage over the electoral robbery in Zimbabwe from being translated into effective action against Mugabe's regime. The strategy is basically to play for time, in the hope that with sufficient delay the attention of the world will wander off elsewhere, and the current determination to act meaningfully against Zanu-PF will dissipate. In addition, as time passes, Mugabe's hold on power will be incrementally legitimised - not least through news organisations continually referring to the Zanu-PF leader as "the Zimbabwean president."
The basic idea then is conjure up the illusion that there is some quick-and-easy solution to the Zimbabwean crisis. This gives those who are reluctant to see the sanctioning of the criminal cabal currently ruining Zimbabwe an excuse to oppose real action. Zanu-PF is playing along with this game by making the right noises about being ready for talks around the creation of a government of national unity.
There is almost no likelihood of a deal unless, of course, the Movement for Democratic Change capitulates. Zanu-PF is not going to surrender power willingly. And it has made clear that it has no intention of compromising on the key issues of contention between it and the MDC. On his return last week from the African Union summit in Egypt Mugabe stated, "I am the president of the republic of Zimbabwe and that is the reality. Everybody has to accept that if they want dialogue."
On the other side the MDC, as well as the Western powers which will eventually have to fund the reconstruction of Zimbabwe, have made it quite clear that they do not accept Mugabe's June 27 victory as a legitimate one.
The South African government meanwhile is refusing to say whether or not it recognises Mugabe's election victory. But here again the intention is fairly transparent. There is an obvious desire to grant Mugabe recognition, but Mbeki thinks it politic to wait until the storm blows over before doing so. One could attribute a measure of cunning to all Mbeki's manoeuvrings, and there will always be people taken in by them. But there is nothing new in all this. The same tactics of obfuscation and delay were employed by Mbeki, to not inconsiderable effect, following Mugabe's fraudulent victory in the 2002 presidential poll.
On the day of the announcement of Mugabe's victory (March 13 2002) Mbeki desisted from immediately endorsing the outcome, as he had done after the stolen election of 2000. He said that "It would be incorrect to comment now on whether the elections in Zimbabwe were free and fair". He then strenuously opposed the suspension of Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth for a year. As soon as it was safe to do so the South African government endorsed the result as credible and legitimate and announced that it would "continue to relate to the Government of Zimbabwe as the elected government of that country." Then as now, Mbeki embarked on diplomatic initiatives ostensibly to facilitate a peaceful settlement to the crisis but which served only to deflect the international pressure on Mugabe.
Then too Mugabe played along with these efforts. On April 3 2002 Dumisani Maleya reported in Business Day "Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has put a hold on his plans to appoint a new cabinet after his recent controversial election win, giving a chance to talks with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change that were initiated by the SA and Nigerian governments." The dispute over Mugabe's victory, Maleya stated, had "prompted African heads of state - Thabo Mbeki, Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, Bakili Muluzi of Malawi and Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique - to intervene and try to negotiate a coalition government in the troubled country. Sources said whether Mugabe would consider a government of national unity depended on the result of the delicate talks."
In October 2002 the Department of Foreign Affairs announced that Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was off to Zimbabwe "acting as part of the international collective, to assist the people of Zimbabwe in their strides towards national reconciliation, which will lay a firm foundation for their political and economic recovery." On the agenda of her meeting with the Zanu-PF government were "Efforts aimed at reconciliation among Zimbabweans specifically focusing on the resumption of political discussions between the Zimbabwean government and the opposition MDC."
Six years on the "tacky cleverness" of Mbeki's Zimbabwe diplomacy, as the Mail & Guardian described it back then, simply comes across as tawdry. While Mbeki was able to run circles around Tony Blair's underlings he is also faced with a more formidable adversary in the current British minister for Africa, Mark Malloch Brown. Lord Malloch-Brown is the son of a former South African diplomat who worked at the United Nations before being recruited by Prime Minister Gordon Brown to his cabinet. In his comments to the British media Malloch Brown has displayed a shrewd grasp of the situation in Zimbabwe and the character of the people he is dealing with. In an interview on Channel 4 he pointed out that any government of national unity proposal "could be very, very dangerous because it could reduce international pressure on Zimbabwe to, indeed, conform with these demands for democracy on it." In another interview he noted the danger of "offering people immunity for them to leave office. Because, as you subsequently discover the scale of their human rights crimes, rightly there's an outcry that they should face justice."
Zanu-PF is already paying Malloch Brown the compliment of making him a target of their racist propaganda. Last week Mugabe's spokesman George Charamba accused him of being "at one point ... the citizen of a colonial republic called Rhodesia... So when he pronounces himself on Zimbabwe he is simply recalling an historical period where the white man reigned supreme in Zimbabwe." On Saturday The Herald referred to him as "a former Ian Smith ally."
Western opinion now regards Mbeki with an emotion that most closely resembles disgust. British officials are regularly asked their view of South Africa's policy towards Mugabe, and it is amusing to read their efforts to avoid saying what they really think of it. As interestingly Zanu-PF officials have taken to referring to Mbeki with the kind of patronising contempt usually reserved for servants. His diplomatic efforts are regularly praised. And after Morgan Tsvangirai shunned a recent meeting in Harare Mugabe admonished him for being rude to the help. The Zanu-PF leader said that Mbeki had come all the way from South Africa to "help us find solutions to our problems and he is not even paid for that. What has happened today is a show of utter disrespect. To say sorry to him is not enough."
Still, one of the disturbing things about Mbeki's current actions is the opaqueness of his motives. This applies to his unrelenting efforts to shield both Mugabe and suspended police chief Jackie Selebi from any kind of accountability. Mbeki seems to be keeping even his cabinet in the dark about the reasons for his actions. In his column in The Weekender Bryan Rostron reported that at the cabinet meeting on June 25 [see here] Mbeki had refused to discuss the Zimbabwe issue and had then, at the very last minute, "announced that the next day he would proclaim an extension of police chief Jackie Selebi's contract for a year. No discussion."
