Zanu just does not seem to understand that suddenly the world has moved on and in the process left them behind. They now understand that the President, Mr. Mugabe, cannot be the next candidate for Zanu PF simply on health grounds. The mirage of an election in 2011 under the same conditions that prevailed in 2008 has dissipated and the reality that they are going to be held to their signatures on the GPA road map is dawning on them.
The consequence is an election in a years' time, time they simply do not have, reforms to the electoral process that will prevent the essential rigging they had planned and therefore seals their fate. Zanu PF simply cannot win any election in the near future.
Discussions in the Cape this week will almost certainly produce a proposed road map to an election in 2012 and will bring with it essential reforms to the whole process, supervised and guaranteed by the region as a whole. I have been saying to people for some time now; do not underestimate the commitment of the region and wider African leadership to the GPA process. This is an African construct and they are going to see it through.
I spent the afternoon today at the opening of the Trade Fair in Bulawayo. This was attended by Mr. Mugabe and it was clear as he drove into the Stadium with full pomp and glory; outriders, armed soldiers, brass bands and a spectacular honor guard, that he was greeted in almost silence except for the rent-a-crowd sitting in one part of the stadium and a few loyalists behind the podium. The heads of the Army and the Police were there and this may be the last time that we will see them in their uniformed splendor. Both are listed for immediate, compulsory retirement in the road map.
The Trade Fair was a pleasant surprise - they had pulled out all the stops and it was packed with people and nearly all stands were taken up. Much different from the dismal affair in recent years and giving me hope that our private sector is not yet totally dead.
The previous weekend was our Congress and contrary to all the expectations, it was a great success. There was no violence and the elections were properly managed and the whole process democratic. Several senior leaders lost their posts and accepted defeat gracefully. Resolutions were adopted and speeches made - and in particular the keynote address by the President, Morgan Tsvangirai, was in my view one of the best he has ever made.