On Wednesday evening the Minister of Basic Education, Angie Motshekga, announced that the 2011 National Senior Certificate pass rate had increased to 70,2% from 67.7% the previous year. This apparent improvement led the headlines on this year's government matric results. As in previous years it will take some time for independent analysis to overtake the political spin.
However, it is immediately apparent from the figures released in the department's technical report (see here - PDF) that a simple reliance on the percentage pass rates is misleading. 496 090 full time candidates wrote the 2011 government matric, 41 453 fewer than in 2010. (Conversely, the number of part time candidates enrolled increased to 112 780 from 82 553 in 2010.) 348 117 passed, down 16 030 from the year before. So, the number of candidates who passed matric declined even as the pass rate increased.
The percentage of candidates receiving bachelor degree passes in 2011 ticked up to 24.3% from 23.5% in 2010. But again this masks an absolute decline in the numbers to 120 767, down 5 605 from the year before.
The decline in those writing and passing mathematics was even more dramatic. 46.3% of the 224 635 candidates who wrote the mathematics exams passed with 30% or more, marginally down from 47.4% in 2010. However, 38 399 fewer candidates wrote these exams and the number who passed, in absolute terms, was down 20 716 from the year before (see Table 1).
Table 1: Change in government matric results (in absolute numbers and percentage terms)
|
|
2010 |
2011 |
Change |
|
Full time candidates who wrote |
537 543 |
496 090 |
-41 453 |
|
No. who passed |
364 147 |
348 117 |
-16 030 |
|
% passed |
67.7% |
70.2% |
2.4% |
|
Bachelors passes |
126 371 |
120 767 |
-5 604 |
|
% passed |
23.5% |
24.3% |
0.8% |
|
No. who wrote maths |
263 034 |
224 635 |
-38 399 |
|
% of total who wrote maths |
48.9% |
45.3% |
-3.7% |
|
No. who passed maths @ 30% |
124 749 |
104 033 |
-20 716 |
|
% |
47.4% |
46.3% |
-1.1% |
|
No. who passed maths @ 40% |
81 374 |
67 541 |
-13 833 |
|
% |
30.9% |
30.1% |
-0.9% |
|
No. who wrote physical science |
205 364 |
180 585 |
-24 779 |
|
% of total who wrote science |
38.2% |
36.4% |
-1.8% |
|
No. who passed science @ 30% |
98 260 |
96 441 |
-1 819 |
|
% |
47.8% |
53.4% |
5.6% |
|
Passed science @ 40% |
60 917 |
61 109 |
192 |
|
% |
29.7% |
33.8% |
4.2% |
|
Total who wrote maths literacy |
280 836 |
275 380 |
-5 456 |
|
Total passed @ 30% |
241 576 |
236 548 |
-5 028 |
|
% |
86.0% |
85.9% |
-0.1% |
A further problem is that attaining a matric "pass" is a very low level attainment. In order to receive their national senior certificate matric candidates need to attain 40% or more in three subjects out of seven subjects - one of which must be their home language - and 30% in another three subjects.
The minimum passes in certain subjects appear to be almost automatic: Almost all matric candidates attained the required level for examinations in their home language subject: 94% for those who wrote English, 98,1% Afrikaans, and over 99% for the other nine official languages. Almost all (99,6%) candidates also attained more than 30% for the compulsory "life orientation" course - which is not externally examined. 96.2% of all those who wrote English as an additional language passed with 30% or more. 85.9% of candidates passed the basic mathematical literacy examinations with more than 30%.
The requirement for a bachelor's degree pass are not particularly onerous either: A candidate is required to attain 30% for - effectively - English (or occasionally Afrikaans), which almost all do, and more than 50% in four of the following subjects: Accounting, Information Technology, Agricultural Science, Languages, Business Studies, Life Sciences, Consumer Studies, Mathematics, Dramatic Arts, Mathematical Literacy, Economics, Music, Engineering, Graphics and Design, Physical Sciences, Geography, Religion Studies, History and Visual Arts.
The department's technical report on the examinations provides figures for passes at 30% and 40% in some cases, but not above that. It is thus not possible to evaluate trends at higher levels. However, only 67 541 of those who wrote the maths exam passed with more than 40%. This is 30.1% of those who wrote the exam, and 13.6% of all those who wrote the government matric.
The Western Cape was the best performing province with 82.9% of candidates in the province passing, 38.1% receiving a bachelor's degree pass, and 19,4% passing maths with more than 40%. Gauteng followed slightly behind, with the Eastern Cape the worst performer (see Table 2.) However, Limpopo, the Western Cape and Gauteng all reported significant declines in the absolute number of candidates who wrote and passed matric (see here).
Table 2: Provincial matric performance compared
|
|
Wrote |
Passed |
% of total |
Bachelors pass |
% of total |
Maths pass @ 40% |
% of total |
|
E Cape |
65 359 |
37 997 |
58.1% |
10 291 |
15.7% |
7 469 |
11.4% |
|
F State |
25 932 |
19 618 |
75.7% |
6 817 |
26.3% |
3 462 |
13.4% |
|
Gauteng |
85 367 |
69 216 |
81.1% |
30 037 |
35.2% |
14 706 |
17.2% |
|
KZN |
122 126 |
83 204 |
68.1% |
27 397 |
22.4% |
14 235 |
11.7% |
|
Limpopo |
73 731 |
47 091 |
63.9% |
12 946 |
17.6% |
9 580 |
13.0% |
|
Mpumalanga |
48 135 |
31 187 |
64.8% |
8 866 |
18.4% |
5 947 |
12.4% |
|
N West |
25 364 |
19 737 |
77.8% |
7 187 |
28.3% |
3 361 |
13.3% |
|
N Cape |
10 116 |
6 957 |
68.8% |
2 012 |
19.9% |
1 022 |
10.1% |
|
W Cape |
39 960 |
33 110 |
82.9% |
15 214 |
38.1% |
7 759 |
19.4% |
|
National |
496 090 |
348 117 |
70.2% |
120 767 |
24.3% |
67 541 |
13.6% |
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