O, LUCKY MAN!

Remember this movie by Lindsay Anderson? It was in 1973. The lyrics were by Alan Price. As you read them think of the luckiest man you know Jacob Zuma.

If you have a friend on whom you think
you can rely - You are a lucky man!
If you've found the reason to live on and
not to die - You are a lucky man!
Preachers and poets and scholars don't know it,
Temples and statues and steeples won't show it,
If you've got the secret just try not to blow
it - Stay a lucky man!

If you've found the meaning of the truth
in this old world- You are a lucky man!
If knowledge hangs around your neck like
pearls instead of chains - You are a lucky man!
Takers and fakers and talkers won't tell you.
Teachers and preachers will just buy and sell you.
When no one can tempt you with heaven or hell-
You'll be a lucky man!

Jacob Zuma's political and personal life may be fairly shambolic, but he is unusually lucky. It is instructive to observe this run of luck. In mid-2005, for example, President Thabo Mbeki sacked him as South Africa's deputy president, after the state had brought corruption allegations against him. Here comes the first moment of luck:

1. The first run of luck: Zuma retained his position as deputy president of the African National Congress, because only the ANC can remove him from this high office, not Mbeki. It was lucky too that the ruling party had become thoroughly disgruntled with its leader. From this vantage point, Zuma campaigned to succeed Mbeki as ANC president and it looks like he may replace him as SA president as well when Mbeki stands down in April 2009.

2. The second run of luck: In December 2005, Zuma was charged with raping a 33-year-old HIV-positive woman (a family friend) at his ministerial home in Johannesburg. He was hauled before the High Court in Johannesburg. But the prosecution's case withered under cross examination.

3. The third run of luck: Earlier, Zuma's home had been raided by the elite police unit, the Scorpions, and charges of corruption arising out of the country's massive arms deal brought against him. That must have been the moment when Zuma, like the robber staring into the barrel of a gun in the Clint Eastwood movie Dirty Harry, heard Harry ask: "You've got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?" But no sooner had the rape case collapsed than the corruption case was struck off the roll. So, yes, Zuma felt lucky.

In handing down that decision Pietermaritzburg High Court Judge Herbert Msimang said the state's case against Zuma "limped from one disaster to another" and had failed to follow proper procedure. "There were clear guidelines which should have informed their decision to proceed. They ignored those guidelines at their own peril. This is the chickens coming home to roost." Zuma had suffered social prejudice which "closely resembles punishment that should only be handed to a convicted person".

This is more than luck. It is of course innocence, but under a wandering star, almost spooky.

Meanwhile, Zuma's financial adviser Schabir Shaik - with whom Zuma was said to have had a corrupt relationship - is serving a 15-year sentence for corruption. The state says it is ready now to reopen the corruption case against Zuma (and against the French arms firm Thint) on 18 charges, including fraud, corruption, money laundering and racketeering. Zuma, however, has a case in the Constitutional Court, arguing against the admissibility of certain critical evidence.

4. The fourth run of luck: The legal teams of both Zuma and the French arms company Thint told the National Prosecuting Authority and KwaZulu-Natal Judge President Vuka Tshabalala that they would not be ready to proceed on August 4, the date set aside for Zuma to appear in the Pietermaritzburg High Court because other legal processes are unfinished.

5. The fifth run of luck: Delaying Zuma's trial until after the April 2009 elections would mean Zuma could be elected national president while his case was still being heard. Zuma's luck held. Judge President Tshabalala accepted that a brief preliminary hearing would take place on August 4, after which he would postpone the trial - wait for it - until next year.

(More luck may await Zuma: there is increasing talk of a constitutional amendment to postpone charges against a president while in office. A senior ANC source said: "As the reality of the case approaches, certain Zuma supporters realise that the likelihood of a conviction is high").

6. The sixth run of luck: By an extraordinary stroke of fate South Africa's five-yearly general elections take place in April. It's a near certainty that Zuma's case will still be before the High Court, unresolved. Even as an accused person, under ANC rules, Zuma will continue as ANC president. The way the dice are rolling now is that by the time the judge delivers his verdict, Zuma probably will have been elected SA's national president.

Even as an accused person, under ANC rules, Zuma can continue as ANC president, although if convicted (but not sentenced to imprisonment), he could be required to quit any office he holds in the organisation, thus ending his presidential aspirations.

The ANC's constitution seems pretty clear on the matter. It states that "conviction in a court of law, for any serious non-political offence" constitutes "misconduct in respect of which disciplinary proceedings may be invoked and instituted against him or her." The penalties which "may be imposed by a disciplinary committee" could, "include reprimand, payment of compensation and/or the performance of useful tasks, remedial action, and suspension of membership or expulsion from the ANC, and in the case of a public representative also the removal from any list or instrument which entitles such person to represent the ANC at any level of government".

The idea of Zuma, if found guilty, being given anything from a custodial sentence to mowing the municipal lawn is interesting, but the ANC constitution continues:"(b) A disciplinary committee may suspend the imposition of any of the above penalties or sanctions, with or without certain conditions for a period to be determined by such disciplinary committee."  This, too, comes under the heading of luck.

7. The seventh run of luck: After the April elections, the newly elected 400 members of the National Assembly will meet to vote in the country's president - by majority vote. Seeing that ANC members will be overwhelmingly in the majority (in spite of the instability the party is passing through at the moment), they will make the choice. Lucky old Zuma. A conviction at the resumed hearing naturally would open the presidential way for someone like Kgalema Motlanthe (formerly secretary general of the ANC under Mbeki, now Deputy President under Zuma in the country's new hierarchy).

8. Finally, the eighth run of luck: Certain questions arise: depending on what the new (Zuma-led) government decides, could (or would) a High Court convict a sitting president?  Would Zuma in practice be untouchable? Might the case be thrown out again? As president, Zuma could scarcely pardon himself, but new legislation could entitle parliament to do so.

Or if the court convicted Zuma, would the ANC waive the rule that debarred Zuma as a convicted person from holding high office? Of course, if by then he was already wearing a striped uniform, he would just have to serve his sentence.

Might the Constitutional Court though rule that the disputed evidence (in a case presently before it) is inadmissible, and might this lead to the collapse of the whole case even before it has started?

There are still so many ifs and buts. If Zuma is looking for guidance it is in the lyrics above.  To remind him:

If you have a friend on whom you think
you can rely - You are a lucky man!
If you've found the reason to live on and
not to die - You are a lucky man!
Preachers and poets and scholars don't know it,
Temples and statues and steeples won't show it,
If you've got the secret just try not to blow
it - Stay a lucky man!