Last week the Institute analysed various opinion polls, and the results of the leadership vote at the national conference of the African National Congress (ANC) at Polokwane in December last year, regarding the likelihood of success for a split in the ANC. The Institute said that such a splinter party would probably receive relatively significant support, and could emerge victorious in the Eastern Cape, the Western Cape, the Free State, and possibly Gauteng.
Although the possibility of such a split has been denied by various ANC members, including the new Deputy President, Ms Baleka Mbete, who said that people who were thinking of leaving the rump ANC were ‘wasting their energy', it would seem that this scenario remains possible.
Rumours have been rife in the weeks following former President Mbeki's resignation as head of state, that a splinter party would be formed, with former minister of defence, Mr Mosiuoa Lekota and former deputy minister of defence, Mr Mluleki George, being the people most often identified as the driving force behind a new party. There has also been speculation that the former Premier of Gauteng, Mr Mbhazima Shilowa, was involved in the formation of a new party, but he has denied this.
There were reports in this morning's newspapers of an open letter by Mr Lekota to the secretary general of the ANC, Mr Gwede Mantashe. In the letter Mr Lekota said that he believed that many of the principles of the Freedom Charter of 1955 were being betrayed. Mr Lekota also expressed concern at the growing intolerance within the ANC of divergent views.
He also said that respect for democratic institutions was lacking. Furthermore, he was concerned at the ‘blatant threats to kill for certain individuals'. This was a reference to the comments by Mr Zwelinzima Vavi and Mr Julius Malema, of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the ANC Youth League respectively, both who said that they were prepared to kill for the ANC president, Mr Jacob Zuma.
The minister of transport, Mr Jeff Radebe, replied to Mr Lekota's letter. In it he said that when Mr Lekota had chaired meetings of the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) he did not let members air contrary views. Mr Radebe also noted an incident where Mr Lekota had attacked former President Nelson Mandela in an NEC meeting. Mr Radebe also said that ANC history had a number of examples where ‘leaders had grown too big for the ANC'. He expressed the hope that the party and Mr Lekota had not reached this stage.
This level of public broedertwis within the ANC is unprecedented, and could herald the beginnings of a new party formed. It is unlikely that Mr Mbeki would join a new party, but it would be made up of his supporters who have been sidelined by the ANC under the leadership of Mr Zuma.
If such a new party should form, South Africa should be wary. Although the current direction of the ANC may be of concern to South Africans, especially with the statements of people like Mr Malema, and the suspected influence of Cosatu and the South African Communist Party on economic policy, the country under Mr Mbeki had a number of shortcomings.
Mr Mbeki was obsessed with race, intolerant of criticism, and rewarded sycophancy over competence. Under Mr Mbeki the HIV/AIDS epidemic grew, and the country's foreign policy became muddled - siding with Russia and China at the United Nations. In addition, black economic empowerment and employment equity policies benefited a rather small minority.
The formation of a new party which could break the ANC's stranglehold on Parliament and the majority of the country's provinces should be welcomed, but the failings of Mr Mbeki and his supporters must not be forgotten.
This article first appeared in SAIRR Today, the weekly online newsletter of the Institute of Race Relations, October 3 2008
