Last week the rand dropped to a twelve month low against both the dollar and sterling. This is not a train smash compared to where it has traded against both those currencies over the past turbulent decade but it is significant because the decline in value of the rand over the past few weeks is almost certainly politically driven.
I wrote a column for the Sunday Times not long after the ANC came to power expressing the view that the strength (or otherwise) of a country's currency is, in effect, the share price of that country. These days that argument could easily be knocked down simply by pointing out that the US, with its sixteen trillion dollar debt , should have the weakest currency in the world.
But back in the pre- quantitative easing days of the 1990's it was a fair comment and it remains a fair comment today for those economies that haven't resorted to smoke and mirrors economics to survive.
The only reason the dollar is still mighty is that the US keep up the pretence and the Chinese keep buying US bonds. It's all a huge confidence trick but it's bound to end in tears. Wouldn't Greece have loved to have been able to print money and get itself out of the dwang it finds itself in?
So, ignoring countries like the UK and the US and those European countries tied to the near farcical Euro, it's still true to say that a country's exchange rate is a pretty good indication of what the rest of the world thinks of it.....particularly when the movements are volatile. That would be particularly true of South Africa.
Over the past few weeks we have demonstrated to the rest of the world that we're not very good at labour relations in this country. We either give in to violent strikers and award them a whopping 22% pay increase or we sack 12 000 workers as Amplats did last week. That is apparently 20% of their total workforce.