NEWS & ANALYSIS

Diary: The battle for Gauteng

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen on the mood on the ground ahead of the May 7 elections

For the past month I have been on the DA campaign trail in Gauteng, the key battleground province in the upcoming elections. The messages I hear everywhere are that people are generally politically tolerant, keen to listen to alternatives to the ANC, and that the key issues are jobs, delivery, and corruption.

Wednesday, January 8.

To Vereeniging with DA MP Dr. Dion George. We go canvassing door-to-door in a residential area on the verge of the city's deteriorating central business district.

An elderly white voter seems sceptical. 

 "Why are you coming to me now just because you want my vote? You should have come years ago."

"Well that's a no," says the canvasser.

His near-neighbours -- a black civil servant and his adult son - in a house that they have upgraded, give a warm greeting, saying they will consider voting DA.

A few houses down the street, a middle aged white lady who is talking to an elderly woman in a wheel chair gets up to greet us at the gate. This ward has a high number of poor whites who live "five to a room" and would likely starve without state assistance says a black DA activist.

"Are you registered", the MP asks. "No, I lost my ID and don't have money for another," comes the reply.

Thursday, January 9th.

In Diepsloot, an area made up largely of shacks that has rapidly expanded over the past twenty years, a small band of DA workers, all in DA T- shirts walk around handing out leaflets. People are willing to talk to the DA, even if they have to jump over open sewers in order to shake the visitor's hands.

On our canvassing walk I am shown a small shack where a child was murdered.

 Party insiders say the cordial reception for the party was unthinkable a decade ago. The presence of DA T-shirts shows that the party will not accept the concept of no-go areas.

Saturday January 11th

To Alexandra with a DA "Blue Wave" led by Mmusi Maimane. After a rally we walk through the streets to the Madala Hostel, which still bears the scars of a fire in October last year. Back in 1992 hostel dwellers raided the neighbouring area when the battles between the Inkatha Freedom Party, IFP, and the ANC raged.

We hear shouts from the hostel windows, but can't make out what is said. As I get closer, I hear "T-Shirt, T-Shirt." All we have are pamphlets and most of them are not in isiZulu, which is a problem as the hostel dwellers are overwhelmingly from KwaZulu-Natal.

Pleas to high-level party officials for T-shirts have been unsuccessful. At a constituency meeting in Soweto I have heard repeated and passionate arguments from activists about the need for many more T-shirts. "T-shirts are part of our identity and they won't be worn as pyjamas," is often the argument.

But the powers that control party budgets say T-shirt demand is insatiable and there has to be a limit. I eventually obtained a T-Shirt, but it is at least two sizes too small.

The hostel is staggeringly large housing several thousand people and its corridors are dark save for the occasional strip light. While it remains a heavily male dominated environment, I do see a fair number of women and children.

The only sign of political affiliation in the hostel are a few ageing IFP posters and the letters IFP daubed onto a wall of the building's vast cooking area. The response is courteous but low-key. Most inhabitants clearly want to get on with their Saturday activities -- drinking beer, braaing meat or doing chores.

"Nkandla" says a man I approach. He then asks "Who is Mmusi Maimane? Where is he from?"

These were the same questions a few supposedly well informed friends in the northern suburbs asked me later that day. Where have these people been I wonder. Can't they see his face on posters and on taxis, don't they listen to the radio?

After the hostel visit, I branch off with some local Alexandra DA activists on their rounds.

A woman with two children sitting on the curb is approached by the activists. She tells them she is not interested in the DA as the party would take away her social grants. "Not true," they say and inform her of the generous DA policy on grants.

Thursday January 16th

Mmusi Maimane's "Believe" campaign bus rolls at close to dawn. An intern from UCT carrying an accounting textbook procures coffee for Mmusi and tea for myself.

"Didn't I ask for black coffee?" Mmusi asks the intern in a calm but displeased tone. In the back of the bus are Mmusi, the intern from UCT, Mmusi's events and logistics planner in an elegant black dress and phone always in hand, and Mmusi's digital media guy, and me.

On the highway Mmusi cross-examines me for at least half an hour on my background. The conversation then moves onto politics and economic policy. He says he is a "neo-Keynesian" and believes in government spending to push for growth. He asks what I think. I say government is already running an expansionary fiscal policy having maintained spending in the face of a recession and declining tax revenues.

A call comes in and the conversation is cut short.

A blue light convoy then speeds past us, ferrying some ANC politician to his next appointment.

Should we be using blue lights too? The aides and I add our two cents worth - security versus inconvenience for road users, the expense, do voters want this sort of prestige for their leaders. Nothing is resolved.

 The day is a scorcher made all the worse by a broken air conditioning system.

The first stop is Winterveld, a township north of Pretoria. As we halt, the back of the bus unfurls to reveal a stage and some massive loudspeakers. DA music attracts a small crowd of ANC supporters who attempt to drown out the DA meeting. Shouting ensues and Mmusi remonstrates with the ANC group and then continues with his speech while the ANC supporters attempt to shout him down. The police keep a careful watch and send for reinforcements, but they just watch impassively.

I approach an ANC supporter and ask if she would consider supporting the DA. "No you are a white party and killed my mother'" she retorts. I move on to our very friendly supporters.

We then roll on to Soshunguve where a large and very welcoming crowd hangs on every word from Mmusi. After the meeting Mmusi goes to see a long row of buckets lined up to be filled from a single tap.

By lunchtime the soles of Mmusi's shoes have almost come off as a result of his energetic dancing. We drop him off at a street-side cobbler shop. By the time we finish our quick lunch, the cobbler has glued his soles back on and we are on our way.

In Ga-Rankuwa there is a warm reception from supporters in a park. A sizeable crowd has gathered and listen attentively, but the school children display no interest in the speech and an old lady sits busily knitting.

As we drive onto Mamelodi for a radio interview and the final rally of the day Mmusi laughs as he tells us how his three-year old daughter insisted on telling a journalist that her birthday was the next day.

By late afternoon the intern from UCT has managed to salvage her reputation with efficient phone message taking from party bosses and the media. The big issue of the day about which the media want Mmusi's comment is Gauteng e-tolls and the decision by the DA to launch complaints against e-tolling to the National Consumer Commission.

Mmusi is definitely a good choice a national party spokesperson. The man can think on his feet, is articulate, and speaks many languages, and he can resonate with people across the board. His brand seems to beyond that of the DA. It is a clever DA move to make him the face of the DA campaign in the province

At the end of the day, we drop him off at a church meeting in Roodepoort.

Saturday, January 25th

To Randjestfontein with Dr. George MP. We visit DA canvassers outside a shopping centre in Randjesfontein near Midrand.

It is all very quiet until a red Volkswagen Polo drives up into the shopping centre. Inside the car waving vigorously at the DA canvassers are three Economic Freedom Fighters. We approach the car and the EFF members, all snazzily dressed with red berets, and one wearing red slip-on shoes, greet us and we chat. Some in our DA group pose for photos with the Freedom Fighters.

We both oppose "the organization - you know what I mean" says one of the Freedom Fighters.

Saturday Feburary 1st

In Ivory Park a township in Midrand where the DA has local activists handing out leaflets outside a shopping centre. Most shoppers politely accept a pamphlet with Mmusi's face, but one says "Mozambique" and walks by.

A university student comes up to me and says he would like to join the DA but is concerned that if he does his name would leak out and he would not be able get a job. It turns out that he is studying IT and is concerned that the DA's database might be hacked by ANC spies.

Soon afterwards, an elderly black woman approaches and says "Ekskuus, ek is van die Vrystaat af and ek kan net Afrikaans praat. Asseblief, wat is die verskil tussen die beleid van die ANC en die van die DA." (Excuse me, I come from the Free State. Please, what's the difference between the policy of the ANC and that of the DA)

Dr. George DA MP steps in and underscores the differences, pointing to our policies to create jobs and fight corruption, and informs her of how well the Western Cape is governed. So much for the endless references by the Institute of Race Relations to the DANC in an attempt to underscore the similarities between the DA and the ANC on the government's National Development Plan.

More than four days have passed since the DA announced that Mamphela Ramphele would be the DA candidate for President. Oddly on the streets of Ivory Park, where Agang have a few posters, not one question is asked about this. By the time I return home and turn on my laptop it is clear that the deal has fallen apart.

Thursday February 6th.

Lunch with a prominent political journalist starts out well

We talk about the paucity of up to date publicly available political polls in SA and how really useful these would be to reporting and discussion. The IPSOS numbers released in January are now three months old. In the last US election Nate Silver, then the political seer of The New York Times, took averages of as many as five polls per state to make his predictions.

Then we talk about the spreading service delivery protests in and around Gauteng and the possible impact on the election and if these have scared the government. I had just heard Jesse Duarte, the Deputy Secretary General of the ANC blame factions in the ANC, the SA National Civic Organisation and the EFF for the troubles in an interview on Radio 702. Then over the weekend City Press carries a story showing tyres being distributed from bakkies with EFF logos.

But then the lunch turns into a probing exercise for the journalist on the identity of the mystery foreign donor who reportedly urged a deal between Helen Zille and Mamphela Ramphele. I have not been privy to the talks and say that Helen Zille offered her the position "in good faith".

Then I say "look at the bigger picture. There are far bigger issues in this election like the rise of the EFF and future of the ANC, voter turnout, and what about the service delivery protests."

"OK, but I deal in news and need a story," says the journalist

Kindly, the correspondent pays for my very good avocado burger.

In the evening I attend a roundtable put on by the Helen Suzman Foundation on "Equity and Redress". The heart of the show is DA Parliamentary leader Lindiwe Mazibuko versus Power FM talk show host Eusebius McKaiser. The talk show host climbs into the DA and says redress should be open ended and based on race alone rather than the proxy of disadvantage.

Mazibuko goes in charging and tells McKaiser he is making up things about DA arguments on the matter. Why should she ,who is from the middle class, and went to private school and UCT, benefit from redress schemes aimed at the poor and dispossessed. Her arguments were almost as devastating as the arguments put forward by Thomas Sowell, an economics professor from Stanford University who has written a book on the subject. 

Mazibuko says if redress is open ended it creates victims rather than people who are confident in their success. Clearly her time as Parliamentary leader has made her a prizefighter in a debating ring.

My big take away from the evening is the remark of the economist Professor Charles Simkins that what we need above all is far faster economic growth to create the jobs.

Saturday February 8th.

Again a very early start to meet DA MP James Lorimer DA MP who is off to see the registration process underway at what will be voting stations on May 7th. At the first two stations we visit in the constituency the party has allocated to him in Soweto there are no DA agents, but it is still early in the morning.

We drop in at the house of a ward chair and find seven youngsters armed with clipboards and envelopes with instructions ready for a day's work as party agents. Over the course of the day we visit around 15 registration stations and find DA agents at all of the stations. Also present are the ANC who have a "front of house" table outside most stations giving a strong sense of presence.

At one station an ANC agent mimics binoculars with her hands as she looks at us. At another station the ANC party agent is far more cordial. We chat and then both wonder why people have left registration so late and a last minute rush is expected on Sunday.

The EFF have a presence at almost all the registration stations we visit. "Why EFF" I ask a supporter outside a station. 

"Sir. The country has not made the progress in 20 years that it should have and there is massive unemployment," he replies.

In part, both the DA and the EFF are aiming for support from those in townships that fall into Living Standard Measures 5-6 and are in their late teens and early twenties.

What would make someone from a similar economic background gravitate towards the EFF rather than the DA? The DA youngsters I have met on my rounds certainly display a great deal of independent thinking.

But party insiders say the EFF is having success on the ground. They are confident and can make their arguments and come up with big promises.

There are no Agang agents at any of the registration stations and we saw only one COPE agent all day.

Near one voter registration station an ANC rally is underway and we see buses and then Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane's blue light convoy pull up. From all we hear, the party in the province is bedevilled by factionalism and I wonder what faction is hosting the rally today.

At the final voter station we visit a disabled man has just registered and gives us a warm greeting.

"Only if Zuma goes will I vote ANC, but I won't vote DA or EFF," he insists and then laughs.

"Why not DA?" the MP asks. 

"You are a white party and you will bring back apartheid," the man replies.

"That's impossible, We can't, we have the constitution, and we don't want to bring back apartheid. You don't know about our origins - we opposed apartheid."

"I will lose my job. The ANC reserves job for disabled people," he says.

"Nothing will happen to your job," says the MP.

"OK then - I won't vote for a party with a woman as leader," he says and then laughs.

Wednesday, February 12th

The day of the DA jobs march in the Johannesburg CBD. I wake up to hear on Radio 702, that the ANC is attempting to get a court interdict to stop the DA marching within 100m of Luthuli House. The case is rejected. But this is obtuse. For today's march the DA plans to march to Beyers Naude Square for an address by Helen Zille.

I had earlier taken a similar view to the one tweeted by the DA Youth Leader, Mbali Ntuli - "Not sure I agree with my party to march on Luthuli House."

Marching is not something political parties should do, I said to myself. Rather present policies and debate. But all along I had been wondering if this was just an elaborate justification driven by my fear at having a brick land on my head.

I had certainly heard of the bricks and stones that were thrown at the DA marchers on COSATU house in 2012.

As the day comes closer I say - the ANC marches, so should we. We have a right to show our support and highlight an issue on the streets. Rights not exercised are rights forgone and it does draw attention to the jobs issue.

Driving to the assembly point we come across a group of ANC supporters with a man with brick in hand. They are taken by surprise when the see the occupants wearing blue T-shirts, but can't make a go for us as lights and traffic are against them.

Our marchers are overwhelmingly black - so much for the claims of the party's detratctors about a white party.

After intense talks between the DA and the police, the march starts, but blue helmets to protect against bricks that might be thrown by ANC supporters are still being chaotically distributed from the back of the truck in the assembly area. Eventually the truck moves out and the blue helmets are handed out on the street.

A kind DA marshal hands one to me while I am on the street. I walk along, stop occasionally to chat, and buy an ice cream. 

Virtually everyone I have met on my Gauteng tour and every top official is on the march. What a place to be to lobby and network?

Then I hear the stun grenades and in the distance see a sea of yellow. After about 40 minutes the march is rushed along back to the assembly area. We are well short of our intended destination of Beyers Naude Square, which has been occupied by the ANC. 

The march was a risky venture and much could have gone wrong, but it paid off. DA marchers could have been injured and our own supporters might have battled ANC supporters. The ANC were shown up as politically intolerant and trying to prevent others exercising their rights.

The three levels of security - the DA's own security and marshals, the SA Police Service, and the Metro Police allowed the DA to take to the streets. It was encouraging to see the police and the Metro Police protect the right to peaceful demonstration.

What does this foreshadow for SA politics. Today the ANC faces the most serious electoral challenge in SA 20 years of democratic elections, but now SA elections are heading into new territory.

This time round there is likely to be a significantly higher level of people staying away from the polls. The DA will increase its share of the vote, but much will depend on how it fights its ground campaign and if it can get its message across. And the EFF will certainly be a powerful force.

Will all this change the balance in Gauteng?

If the DA does well, and is in a position to form a coalition it will have to think long and hard about an alliance partner in Gauteng.

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is responsible for Media Liaison for the DA-Abroad in Londonbut these views do not necessarily reflect those of the party.

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