F W DE KLERK RESPONDS TO THE ELECTION AND THE ZUMA PRESIDENCY IN A SPEECH TO THE ROYAL COMMONWEALTH SOCIETY

In a speech to the Royal Commonwealth Society in London on 12 May, F W de Klerk spelled out his response to the recent election in South Africa and to the prospects for the Zuma presidency.

He said that democrats would welcome the stronger showing of opposition parties and the fact that the Democratic Alliance had won the Western Cape Province outright.  They would take note that, for the first time since 1994, the ANC's share of the vote had declined and that, by a whisker, it no longer had the two-thirds majority that it required to change the Constitution. 

F W de Klerk said that it was disappointing that voters continued to vote according to race and not political principle or their satisfaction with the performance of government.  This meant that the DA - "despite its energetic and competent leader Helen Zille" would find it difficult to increase its support much above the 20% represented by the white, coloured and Asian minorities.  He observed that COPE had probably reduced ANC support by 6% or 7% - which the ANC had partially regained by attracting votes away from the IFP.

After fifteen years of constitutional democracy South Africans found themselves "balanced between justifiable pride over our undoubted achievements and deep concern over our unresolved problems". "The question that engages us all is how the incoming government of Mr Jacob Zuma will affect this balance:  will he continue to build on the constitutional and economic progress that we have achieved?  Will be able to address the enormous societal problems that continue to confront us?"

Mr De Klerk observed that no-one knew what a leader would be like until he became the leader - particularly in Africa .  Unfortunately, Mr Zuma would not be acceding to the presidency in the happiest of circumstances. "Until last month he was facing serious charges related to South Africa 's ongoing arms procurement scandal". The manner in which the charges had been dropped raised disquieting questions regarding the continuing independence and integrity of our National Prosecuting Authority. 

Another cause for concern related to the influence of the SACP and COSATU.  They had played a major role in Mr Zuma's victory at Polokwane and expected to be fully rewarded.  They had also been critical of former finance minister Trevor Manuel and wanted more interventionist and populist approaches. At the same time moderates - like Treasurer General Matthews Phosa - supported by Zuma himself - had repeatedly assured domestic and foreign investors that there would be no change to the existing macro-economic policies. 

"Although the ANC prides itself on being a broad church," it was De Klerk's view that it would not be able to straddle this divide:  "either it will retain its present economic policies, in which case COSATU and the SACP will be seriously alienated; or it will lurch to the left - in which foreign and domestic businessmen will refuse to invest in the economy".  There was also a possibility that the ANC might try to satisfy both sides and end up satisfying no-one.

The announcement of his Cabinet on Sunday provided some valuable pointers regarding the direction that the Zuma presidency will take:

• "The most significant development is that veteran Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has been appointed Minister in the Presidency responsible for the National Planning Commission.  In effect, this will enhance Manuel's role and gives him the status almost of a Prime Minister.  It is accordingly likely that the Zuma administration will continue the responsible macro-economic policies that Manuel implemented while he was Minister of Finance.
• "Trevor Manuel will be replaced as Finance Minister by Pravin Gordhan, who, in his previous post, made the SA Revenue Service the most effective organ in the state.
• "The fact that President Zuma has appointed a second minister in the presidency to monitor and evaluate government performance indicates his seriousness in improving service delivery and in holding his ministers and public servants to account.
• "The appointment of leading businessman, Tokyo Sexwale, to the post of Minister of Human Settlements (housing) will help to strengthen the moderates in the Cabinet and counter-balance the influence of the SACP and COSATU.
• President Zuma's decision to appoint Pieter Mulder as Deputy Minister of Agriculture might mean that his administration will adopt a responsible approach to land reform and will seek to engage Afrikaans farmers in the development of a workable approach to this sensitive issue. 

The next five years would deeply affect the future of South Africa for the coming decades - and South Africa's success would, in turn, be a major factor in determining the future success of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa .

De Klerk said that, personally, he was optimistic that Jacob Zuma would make the right choices - and that he would confound the prophets of doom - as had happened so often in South Africa's history.  "He has many of the qualities that will be necessary to deal with the difficult challenges that will confront him during his presidency".

"But by the same token, South Africans - and the international community -would be well advised to watch him carefully - particularly with regard to any initiative that might undermine our constitution or the independence of our judiciary.  The price of liberty is, and will always remain, eternal vigilance". 

Statement issued by the FW de Klerk Foundation, Cape Town, May 12 2009

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