It is difficult to read the significance of the 2009 election results. From a short term perspective, if the ANC had won around 60% of the vote it could have been tipped into a crisis of confidence; if its share had been closer to 70% (as many of its leaders expected) the opposition would have suffered a severe blow. As it is the ANC did well enough to claim a strong but certainly not overwhelming mandate while, in turn, the DA has trumpeted its success in meeting its key objectives.

Taking the longer view, the result did not provide an obvious answer to the question of whether ANC dominance will continue to endure. By effectively seeing off the challenge posed by COPE did the ANC secure its hold on power for another generation? Or was a trend of underlying decline only briefly checked by a surge of ethnic Zulu sentiment in its favour, and the vast sums of foreign money it was able to spend on its campaign?

The mist will perhaps have begun clearing by the time of the 2011 local government polls. The ANC generally does less well in these elections than in national ones. This is perhaps because the top ANC leadership seems to float, like the Gods on Olympus, above the frustrations voters feel at the poor service delivery on the ground. During national elections ordinary mortals feel flattered that, for a few months at least, such exalted beings could take such an intense interest in their welfare. The ANC finds it much harder to mobilise its supporters in mid-term when discontent tends to be at its highest.

One of the apparent lessons of this election is that the road to electoral success at national and provincial level lies through smaller victories at municipal level. As Ray Hartley has noted the DA's triumph in the Western Cape had its origins in Helen Zille winning the Cape Town mayoralty back in 2006. "Everything from fighting litter to enhancing tourism and to dealing with development has been improved under Zille... From this urban base, the DA built a ‘ground-up' credibility with voters which translated into momentum in the provincial election which the DA won outright."

There are two other more general reasons why such victories at local government level matter. Firstly, in South African politics (to borrow a phrase from elsewhere) nothing ‘succeeds like success.' Secondly, opposition control of municipal government has the potential to blunt a major ANC campaign advantage in the national elections. One of the most powerful claims the ruling party made in their recent election advertising (see here) was that all the benefits government provides somehow originated from them, the ANC.

Opposition control of a formerly ANC controlled municipality would make a nonsense of such assertions (at least in that area) - particularly if combined with more effective service delivery. This should not be too hard to do provided the incoming administration makes the ability to do the job the main criterion in making appointments, and cleans up corruption in the allocation of tenders.

Outside of the Western Cape, the one major metropolitan area where the ANC appears to be most open to challenge is Port Elizabeth. Its share of the vote in the area dropped from 69% in 2004 to just under 50% in the recent provincial elections. But the ANC's share of the vote was in the low-to-mid sixties in Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Kimberley, and Mafikeng (see table below). If its support continues to slip then these municipalities could come into play as well.

Even if the ANC is potentially vulnerable a lot depends on the ability of the opposition parties to exploit its weaknesses. COPE failed to come near to challenging the DA for the mantle of official opposition. And the recent behaviour of its leadership resembles a bunch of sailors who having abandoned ship, and are now floating on the oceans in an inflatable life raft. Yet, instead of pulling together to get to safety, decide to have a knife fight to determine who should be captain. That they will sink their vessel in the process seems to be of little concern to those involved.

The political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi has, however, argued that COPE was better positioned to attract black voters than the DA, and could eventually displace it as the main opposition party. Other commentators have argued that the DA has finally reached the ethnic limit of its support (similar claims were made in 1999 and 2004).

Whether this is in fact be the case is somewhat open to question. If COPE continues to get so many things wrong its racial complexion is not going to save it from implosion. And voters who become terminally fed up with the dominant party tend to look around for the most viable and effective alternative (whatever its ethnic makeup.) Despite being led by English South Africans the DP/DA was able to win over, en masse, white Afrikaans voters in 1999 and Coloured voters in 2009. If the DA maintains its ideological cohesion and integrity it will eventually make a breakthrough among black voters as well.

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