LONDON - The instability that has struck the African National Congress and sent it reeling into confusion has not been caused by ideological rifts, but mostly by over-ambitious members scrambling wildly for top jobs - ranging from ministerial and other government appointments to key posts in the upper and even middle ranks of the ANC.
This is the opinion of Moeletsi Mbeki (brother of ex-president Thabo Mbeki), who says that talk of a well-organised "coup" to overthrow the top six in the ANC leadership is exaggerated. He identifies over-grasping members of the Tripartite Alliance (ANC, Cosatu, SACP) as the principal players in the power struggle - they have brought the current political upheaval upon themselves, he says.
Moeletsi's comments (in an interview) follow publication of a leaked Cosatu report which some analysts see as a cry of anguish from the two million member trade union federation. The report, still in its draft stage and to be tabled at a four-day Cosatu conference opening on Monday (September 21), suggests that Cosatu is besieged by plotters and disloyal Alliance members.
Cosatu is doing its own plotting though. Training its sights on former Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, it says that as Minister of the National Planning Commission, "he wants to be seen again as this super-minister," as "second in charge" under President Zuma, and as the country's de facto "imperial" prime minister. Cosatu foresees an "ugly power struggle" at the ANC's 2012 conference, when Jacob Zuma will either be re-elected as ANC president or voted out of office.
Cosatu blames in particular the ANC Youth League and Women's League for the instability. Reportedly, the ANCYL wants to replace ANC secretary-general/SACP national chairperson Gwede Mantashe with its own former president, Fikile Mbalula, now deputy minister of Police.
Cosatu has also called on Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel to hasten the assembling of his team because his mandate is being negated by Manuel's plans. Cosatu's report claims there is an underlying struggle within the state apparatus to demean Patel's ministry, which is "spearheaded by the running dogs of the erstwhile powerful forces that colonised key positions in government," and who may be trying to create a new centre of power in government.