As the dust begins to settle around the controversially named Government of National Unity (GNU) and new political alliances begin to take shape, it is timely to consider some of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that are in play in the seventh parliament of SA.

There is no “national unity” discernible at this stage which is why Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Helen Zille and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) led by Jacob Zuma are agreed that calling the multi-party cabinet that is dominated by the ANC a GNU is not accurate. The so-called GNU is led by Cyril Ramaphosa but is not one of “National Unity” much as those in charge might like it to be so.

It is true that the invitation to form the GNU was extended to all parties represented in parliament . The invitation to join was extended on the basis that constitutionalism and respect for the rule of law are its foundations. These values are not as attractive to all parties in parliament as they should be, despite the contents of the oaths of office all parliamentarians solemnly swear or affirm and in which upholding the Constitution and all other law feature prominently.

Some parties do not regard this invitation from the ANC as the appropriate vehicle for what they wish to achieve in the seventh parliament. Others made impossible demands for positions to ensure their non-participation in the so called GNU. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has long proclaimed its revolutionary intent, an overtly Marxist/Leninist future awaits SA if it ever gets its way. Phumlani Majozi exhorts his readers to pray for the demise of the EFF at the very time it gives the impression that it is exploding.

The MKP would like to tear up the Constitution and revert to African traditionalist values so dear to its knob kierie wielding leadership. Conscription for young men and banishment for young women who fall pregnant are planks of MKP policy. The rule of law is regarded by the MKP as a foreign concept unknown to the Indunas who would take up their “rightful” feudal role in a SA run by the MKP.

Its leftist leanings are unlikely to gel with those traditionalist voters who measure their starkly capitalist wealth in land , cattle and daughters in respect of whom they claim lobola, the traditional “bride price”. To call this type of value system “leftist” or even “progressive” is a misnomer. The clash in values between the MKP and the EFF probably ensures that a lasting alliance between them, musical chairs and parachuting in parliamentarians notwithstanding, is unlikely.

The inwardness of what makes Jacob Zuma tick was discussed by Mark Gevisser in his magisterial biography of Thabo Mbeki, “The Dream Deferred” which was written in 2007, before the fateful Polokwane conference at which Zuma deposed Mbeki:

“Zuma and his backers had no respect for the rule of law, and would be unaccountable to the constitutional dispensation the ANC had put in place if they came to power. There was also the worry of a resurgence of ethnic politics, and – given his support from the left – that Zuma’s leftist advisors would undo all the meticulous stitching of SA into the global economy that Mbeki and his economic managers had undertaken over 15 years.” – The Dream Deferred pp xli.

Most parties, including the ANC , except its Gauteng leadership, much prefer to band together and present a united front against the new official opposition led in parliament by a rogue former judge, impeached by the very parliament in which he now, questionably so, serves as Leader of the Opposition and, most curiously, as a parliamentary representative on the Judicial Service Commission which is tasked with finding suitably qualified women and men to grace the Bench in SA. If, as is unlikely, his appointment to the JSC withstands objective judicial scrutiny, it will be a case of “do as I say, not as I have done”.

The lines of battle in a parliament in which the MKP and EFF serve as very different elements of the opposition will feature a great deal of quicksand. What to make of the deputy leader (and avowed communist) of the EFF , Floyd Shivambu, defecting to the merry band of Zulu traditionalists led by Jacob Zuma the disgraced and disgraceful former president of the ANC, and the country, both for two terms, will be difficult to discern. Is the smaller EFF eying a reverse takeover of the bigger MKP when the time is ripe or will the waning popularity of the EFF cause it, following Floyd, to be swallowed up by the MKP? Time will tell. A great deal of Zulu will be spoken in the presence of Floyd, who is reportedly not fluent in the Zulu language.

There are multiple weaknesses in SA currently crying out for attention.

It is a weakness that the GNU may prove fragile. Its main proponents, the ANC and the DA have long been at loggerheads on ideological approaches that are markedly different to each other. Knuckling down together in a spirit of honest pragmatism and using merit as the criterion of choice in making appointments and choosing policies may be able to overcome this weakness, leading to a re-alignment when next the voters go to the polls.

The most worrying weakness at this time is that rampant grand corruption remains unaddressed in SA. When there is nothing left to steal chaos ensues. Look no further than Zimbabwe to appreciate what chaos entails.

The DA has a constitutionally compliant plan for addressing serious corruption and organised crime. It wishes to establish a new stand-alone permanent and independent entity under Chapter Nine of the Constitution. This new body of specialists will relieve the struggling NPA of part of its burden, thus enabling it to recover from the ravages of State Capture. This new “Anti-Corruption Commission” will have a constitutional mandate to prevent, combat, investigate and prosecute serious corruption and organised crime. It will report to parliament free of influence or interference from the executive and it will be impossible to close it down as easily as the Scorpions were dissolved in 2009.

The weakness is that this reform, once, as recently as 2020, supported by the NEC of the ANC, will require a two thirds majority because it involves a constitutional amendment to Chapter Nine. This majority is unattainable without the support of the ANC. The ANC cabinet ignored the NEC’s 2020 instruction to it , preferring to establish a palpably unconstitutional sop called “the Investigating Directorate Against Corruption” within the limping NPA and without due regard to binding judicial precedent.

A vote on replacing this body is a vote that could break the GNU and occasion an early election if a minority government or, heaven forbid, a new majority alliance which includes the MKP or the EFF or both, is formed because those elements in the ANC who prefer a revolution to our Constitution vote against the DA’s plans for reform.

Fortunately, the new minister of justice appreciates that the National Prosecuting Authority falls under her department. The courts have ruled that anti-corruption work must be done by an entity that is free of executive influence and interference. Properly implementing these findings will require the type of radical reform the DA advocates.

Assuming the DA prevails, rest assured that the new body will not wait patiently for more than two years to be afforded access to the documents of the Zondo Commission. If the DA’s bills are rejected the culture of corruption with impunity will continue until the state fails. Wiser counsel must be encouraged to prevail.

Other weaknesses in the failure of service delivery exist at all levels and in most aspects of governance. Taking seriously the constitutional obligation to respect, protect, promote and fulfil the rights guaranteed to all in the Bill of Rights should become the main focus of the GNU.

The recovery of the loot of state capture will assist in the financing of this endeavour. Plea bargains, pardons and non-trial resolution of cases involving political bigwigs are all possible in law.

The GNU is going to have to pay particular attention to the ever longer backlog of cases in the courts. The looming possibility of a failure in the administration of criminal and civil justice must be avoided at all costs.

What then of the opportunities available to SA in 2024?

Many more job opportunities are possible if the GNU governs wisely and prudently. New investments will be made if honesty and pragmatism become established as the hallmarks of the GNU. Green shoots are already discernible. Business confidence can be stimulated if government is seen to be doing the right thing, not only on economic policy, but generally. Protecting crooked comrades who participated in State Capture is not the right way to go, with or without the connivance of those tasked with bringing the corrupt to book.

With a new minister of basic education in place the opportunity to turn around the dysfunctional basic education system is not to be missed. There are no jobs for school leavers who can’t read and write to the standards required in the workplaces. Curriculum revision is a good start.

A better life for all will be difficult to achieve in the absence of millions of new jobs. Realising the presidentially stated ambition to “turn SA into a construction site” will present many opportunities to many previously excluded from the benefits of their hard won freedom.

The new minister of police has also made an encouraging start to bringing the police service back from the brink. Nothing damages tourism, a potentially huge money spinner, more than the fear in the hearts of tourists that they will not be safe when visiting SA.

Threats, what threats?

If the express resolve of the GNU to respect the Constitution and enforce the rule of law turns into the lived reality of SA during the term of the seventh parliament of the new SA there is no threat to the political system that can prevail.

The electoral support of the EFF is crumbling. Its leader is accused of corruption not only with VBS but also On Point Engineering. The former deputy leader, also under the VBS cloud, has jumped ship to imbibe ethnic traditionalist politics. His confusion is demonstrated by his heartfelt “God Bless” at the end of his letter of resignation in which he declares his undying loyalty to godless Marxist theory which has never worked in practice anywhere it has been tried in the world.

Jacob Zuma is the inspiration for and leader of MKP. He is also accused number one in a trial due to commence in April 2025. On the same facts his former financial advisor was sentenced to 15 years imprisonment for corrupting Zuma, who is now an octogenarian. Whether MKP, like Cope, turns out to be a one election wonder that disrupted the 2024 election, time will tell. It does not appear to have the makings of a party that will have wide appeal outside KZN. Successful governance on the part of the GNU is bound to undermine the popularity of the MKP.

The biggest threat to SA is that the GNU will not survive and thrive. Its leaders have a novel and awesome responsibility to fulfil. The future success of SA will depend on the success of the brave new GNU based on steadfastly cleaving to constitutionalism and the rule of law. Its components deserve the support of “We the People” who claim both delivery and authorship of the Constitution under which they are bound to serve us all openly, accountably and responsively.

May the second miracle in the system of governance in SA survive and thrive.

Paul Hoffman SC is a director of Accountability Now.