A FAMOUS GROUSE

A LOT has been written about last week’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit, an event hailed by Beijing as a “grand reunion of the China-Africa big family”. 

Wading through the news reports on the summit has however been like embarking on a mammoth marshmallow bender — much chewy stuff but, frustratingly, nothing of substance to chew on.

Little has been said, for example, of Africa’s ever-increasing debt burdens or the geopolitical tensions arising from Beijing’s interests on the continent. 

And what of trade imbalances? Did it not matter that China gets the mineral goodies, the oil and the iron ore, while its exports of cruddy manufactured goods undercut and threaten domestic production? Apparently not. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Instead, there was talk of a “shared desire” for development and progress on the continent. China’s Xi Jinping announced that $50 billion in financial support would be doled out in the next three years. 

On top of that, there’s a ten-point “partnership action plan” will, in Xi’s words, “set off a wave of modernisation in the global south and open a new chapter in our drive for a community with a shared future for mankind”.

African leaders at the summit appeared to welcome such pronouncements. Cyril Ramaphosa, in particular, seemed as pleased as Punch with his host’s overtures and threatened largesse. Judging by the press photographs, Squirrel appeared to receive the lion’s share of face time with Xi, beaming from ear to ear in the glare of flashbulbs.

In his opening address, Squirrel told the summit: “Through the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, the economies of Africa are being drawn closer together. We are pursuing projects that reach across national borders. We believe that FOCAC can play an important role as Africa works to build an integrated network of linkages between countries, within regions and across the continent.”

This was in marked contrast to his remarks before the summit, when he complained that Beijing had reneged on previous pledges to buy African goods. This was a sentiment shared by other African leaders in the run-up to the summit, according to The Economist. 

There was an initial perception, the magazine said, that China’s interest in the continent was waning. It pointed to the uncomfortable fact that several African countries, notably Ethiopia, Zambia and Kenya, had struggled to repay debts accrued while embarking on ambitious infrastructure projects in recent years. With China’s economy slowing and African governments tightening their belts, few were expecting anything remotely near as generous as previous FOCAC handouts.

But all that was behind us. The $50 billion may have been less than the sums pledged in 2015 and 2018, but hey, it was better than 2021. So, here was a fresh start, for the beano in Beijing was apparently not just another gab fest, but a whole new thing. Lofty undertakings were on the table, according to Xi, now the undisputed world leader of the aforementioned global south.

“In promoting modernisation,” he stated in his keynote address, "we should not only follow the general rules, but also act in light of our national realities. China is ready to increase exchanges of governance experience with Africa, support all countries in exploring modernisation paths befitting their national conditions, and help ensure equal rights and equal opportunities for all countries. 

“We should jointly advance modernisation that is open and win-win. Mutually beneficial cooperation is the sunny road to the betterment of long-term and fundamental interests of all countries…”

Win-win? Yum-yum. At least in the short term. 

While $50 billion may not have been as generous as some had hoped, it nevertheless indicated that China still expressed some interest in Africa. And vice versa. Lending may have fallen but trade has picked up, partly due to a huge demand for African minerals. 

However, analysts suggest that Xi’s “crucial priority” now is avoiding a familiar African problem — defaulting on debt repayments. Or, as we at the Slaughtered Lamb (“Finest Ales & Pies”) prefer, not everyone in the big family is coming to the table.

China’s finances, the Financial Times has noted, are already stretched by a slowdown in its property sector, and now faces further strain by African countries struggling to repay existing loans. Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia have, for example, defaulted on repayments. A dozen other countries could soon find themselves in a similar situation.

Enter, then, the West. One indication, the FT said, of a looming geopolitical tussle as western countries court African leaders for “access to critical minerals following a long period where they gave China little competition” is the revamped US-backed railway running from the Zambia copper belt to the Angolan port of Lobito.

But even as the Americans and others become more active on the continent, there is a sense that China still retained the upper hand in dealing with African leaders, thanks to what Jana de Kluiver of the Institute of Security Studies has described as its role in assisting its partners in the global south along the path of industrialisation. American strategy, by contrast, appeared to be more “anti-Chinese policy” than “African policy,” she said.

There is an African proverb about the grass getting trampled when elephants fight. It seems quite Confucian now.

All at sea

I wonder what they make of Xi Who Must Be Obeyed’s “sunny road” spiel on tiny Thitu Island. 

There’s not much to Thitu, admittedly. It’s a little more than 90 acres altogether and not quite two kilometres in length. It’s part of the islets, reefs and cays that make up the remote Spratly Islands chain in the South China Sea; a “spit of sand”, according to one description.

Modest though it may be, and much to the regret of the 387 civilians who call it home, Thitu is now sadly one of the world’s most fiercely contested maritime sites. This is largely due to Beijing’s acquisitive territorial ambitions.

Presently administered by Manila, the island was once Taiwanese territory, but in 1971, after it was struck by a powerful typhoon, it was seized and settled by the Philippines. 

Infrastructural development there was initially slow but picked up in recent years. In 2020, a new sheltered port and harbour was built. A concrete runway was completed in 2023. The community is now also served by a karaoke bar, some stores, a health clinic, a small school (it has almost a hundred pupils), a chapel and a basketball court.

Idyllic as it all may seem residents have unfortunately lived under the Chinese menace for years. Local fishers in small boats have been chased by a growing number of Chinese coast guard vessels in waters around the island. Reports of threatening Chinese aircraft and drones have also gradually increased.

Tensions have dramatically escalated. Earlier this year, Chinese vessels effectively blockaded the island in an attempt to prevent Philippine supply ships from reaching troops based at Second Thomas Shoal, an atoll about 220 kilometres from Thitu. Manila claimed the Chinese had rammed their vessels and blasted them with water cannon.

A submerged reef, the Second Thomas Shoal has become a dangerous regional flash point, with Chinese vessels harassing ships aiming to resupply a Philippine garrison stationed atop the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that a former Philippine government purposely grounded in 1999 to assert sovereignty over the atoll.

Last month, two Filipino coast guard vessels were damaged in a collision with Chinese vessels at Sabina Shoal, part of the Spratly chain. Chinese state media then accused Manila of “illegally” occupying Thitu and expanding military infrastructure there. 

Shortly after this, vessels from the two countries once again clashed near Sabina Shoal; this time Manila claimed its ship was on a resupply mission for fishers, while the Chinese coastguard said it had responded to an “illegal” entry into its waters. Beijing has introduced legislation empowering its coastguard to detain foreigners it accuses of “trespassing”. According to a Guardian report, Thitu’s fishers now only take to the sea in groups.

As incidents escalate, so too do concerns that “an error of judgment at sea” could spiral into armed conflict — a situation that risks drawing the United States, a Philippine ally, into confrontation with China.

I mention all this not only to stress, again, that the “national reality” for a growing number of countries is to be bullied and harassed for their refusal to kowtow to Beijing, but to perhaps suggest that Beijing’s $50 billion pledge to African leaders has bought him 54 votes of support at the United Nations. (Not that Squirrel’s enduring devotion was ever in doubt.)

Which may or may not come in handy should the UN ever deign to address China’s loutish behaviour. Just saying.

The great debate

How weird was it of Donald Trump to suggest that Haitian immigrants were eating peoples’ pets in Springfield, Ohio. I was watching with Carrots and Pepper and, when I stopped laughing, had to convince the little guys that, despite the names we’d given them, they were two wonderful rescue cats — and not ingredients for a stew.