DA by-election wins confirm party's growth nationally

The results of yesterday's by-elections in Mitchell's Plain and Parow mean that the Democratic Alliance (DA) is now on track to win an outright majority in the Western Cape, provided that DA voters in the province turn out on Election Day.

The DA won a landslide victory in Mitchells Plain in Cape Town, increasing our level of support from 21.6% in 2004 to 79.4%, while in Parow the DA won 96.5 of the vote, up from 83% in 2006, and 63.4% in 2004.

We also won two other by-elections in DA wards in Kempton Park, while we improved our performance slightly relative to 2006 in an ANC stronghold in the Eastern Cape. These results suggest that DA growth across South Africa is on the cards for April 22.

Other significant implications of the results:

Cope did disastrously in both Mitchell's Plain and Parow and is not a factor in the City of Cape Town. It cannot hope to come more than a distant third in the Western Cape.

The ID is set to go backwards in the Western Cape, and therefore also across South Africa, and will have to reconsider its relevance in South African politics post the election.

Mitchells Plain, Cape Town

The Mitchells Plain by-election is of particular significance because it signals a massive shift towards the DA among coloured voters in the City of Cape Town. The shift is decisively away from the ID and the ANC, while Cope's performance was dismal, given the hype that it generates in the media.

Results in the ward since 2004 are as follows:

Turnout: 36.9%

Parow, Cape Town

The result in Parow is significant in that it points to the possibility of a win in the Western Cape, read together with the Mitchell's Plain result.

However, DA voters need to realize that victory in the Western Cape will depend entirely on their turning out to vote on Election Day.

Results in the ward since 2004 are as follows:

Turnout: 36.6%

Ward 13, Kempton Park, Ekurhuleni

The result here is a consequence of two things: high turnout among DA supporters relative to ANC supporters (differential turnout), and a significant shift towards the DA among black voters, from around 4% to 11%. The DA increased its support levels in absolute terms in both black voting districts (from 72 votes to 145), despite lower overall turnout in these VDs.

Turnout: 24.9%

Ward 16, Kempton Park, Ekurhuleni

In this ward, the DA's growth can again be ascribed in part to high turnout of DA supporters.

The moral of the story, once again, is that turnout is a hugely significant driver of the final result in elections, a message the DA will continue to deliver to supporters across the country.  

Turnout: 25.1%

Dispatch, Nelson Mandela Bay

The key conclusion from the result in this ward is that the FF+ often splits the opposition vote and allows the ANC to win wards it would otherwise lose, especially now that the ANC's vote has been split by Cope.

Turnout: 65.7%

Statement issued by Democratic Alliance CEO, Ryan Coetzee, March 26 2009

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