African National Congress has received 40.18% of the votes, equivalent to 159 seats in the National Assembly, needing 42 seats as a minimum for establishing a government, though it remains the largest political party in the future National Assembly.
There is no political party that can form a government alone after ANC lost its majority vote. This is the reality of South Africa in 2024, after 30 years of ANC government.
Democratic Alliance received 21.81 % of the votes, equivalent to 87 seats as the second biggest party in the National Assembly.
The new kid in the block, Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party led by the former president Jacob Zuma, received 14.58% of the votes - equivalent to 58 seats as the third largest party.
Economic Freedom Fighters led by Julius Malema has been relegated to the fourth position in the National Assembly with 9.52% of the national vote, equivalent to 39 seats.
Inkatha Freedom Party received 4.25% of the national vote, equivalent to 17 seats and becoming the fifth the largest political party in the National Assembly.
Patriotic Front (PA), also a new kid in the block, received 2.25% of the national vote equivalent to 9 seats, becoming the sixth largest political party.
ANC under Cyril Ramaphosa lost its majority because of corruption inside the party, the government and the state. There is corruption all over the place, with those implicated in wrongdoing at the State Capture inquiry still walking the streets. The Hawks and National Prosecuting Authority have made no tangible progress. Most of those implicated in the VBS bank heist in Limpopo are still untouched.
The new coalition government will have its plate full. It needs to restore Eskom to its peak performance to supply electricity 24/7, and Transnet must be restored with trains running between towns and cities across the length and breadth of South Africa on a 24 hours basis. But can the new coalition government address that?
The organisers of the 9-17 July 2021 riots, which flared up after former president Zuma was arrested, are still at large and are still unknown except for the alleged unrest instigator, Ngizwe Mchunu, who worked for Ukhozi FM. When will the organisers of the uprising be arrested and charged?
The unemployment rate stands at 32%, the highest since the advent of democracy in 1994. Can the new coalition government address that? Only time will tell.
Which coalition permutation can rescue South Africa? The citizens of South Africa need a professionally-run state, electricity supply available on a 24 hour basis, trains running on 24 hour basis, water treatment plants functioning properly on 24 hour basis, and with an education system on a par with fellow members in BRICS: China, India, Russia, and Brazil.
Some are calling for an ANC and DA coalition, but can it work? The coalition can work if common ground can be established between the two parties on how to govern the country. Current policies that are likely to be in dispute include South Africa's membership of BRICS, which DA does not support. Nor does DA support the National Health Insurance law that has been recently signed into law. Lastly the Middle East conflict in Gaza, with DA supporting Israel and the ANC supporting the Arab Palestinian cause during the war between Hamas and Israel.
The above policy differences are certain to cause friction between ANC and DA, and if not handled properly will paralyse a coalition government.
The second possible coalition permutation is ANC in alliance with either of its off springs: either MK Party led by former president Jacob Zuma, or EFF led by Julius Malema. Both Zuma and Malema, however, do not like Ramaphosa and they blame him for their departure from the ANC. They prefer not to work with him. ANC working with MK Party would be a rerun of the factional battles between the former Radical Economic Transformation and Thuma Mina factions that took place inside the ANC in 2018. ANC leadership still has RET leaders working hand in glove with Zuma. Such a coalition would likely break the ANC.
Zuma and Malema stated that they can work with ANC under a different leadership, by implication meaning it will be possible for them to work with current deputy president Paul Mashatile. But Mashatile is currently facing charges after DA formally laid criminal charges against him on 12 February this year, following severe allegations of corruption levelled against him which span almost two decades. DA leader John Steenhuisen opened the case at the Cape Town Central police station.
Mashatile might not survive the court case. But with the South African legal system and with good lawyers, Mashatile can stretch the case for ten years plus, in the same way that Zuma has avoided facing court after his former financial advisor Shabir Sheik was charged and arrested in 2001. Mashatile can follow Zuma's steps to avoid the courts indefinitely, with his lawyers using the technical clichés. Coalition of ANC with MKP or EFF might require Ramaphosa to go because of personality clashes.
Another possible coalition could include ANC with three or four smaller political parties that could make up the 41 seats required for a stable coalition government. The ANC could sign memorandum of understanding with small parties such as IFP, PA, Freedom Front Plus etc, offering them ministerial posts or chairmanship of parliamentary subcommittees such as Standing Committee on Public Accounts (Scopa), or the Home Affairs subcommittee. Such a coalition might be feasible under Ramaphosa for a reasonable period.
However, without parliamentary majority to protect him, Ramaphosa will also be faced with the Phala Phala saga afresh, going back to the discovery in 2020 that $580,000 in foreign currency had been stolen from his house on his farm in Limpopo province, having been stashed in a sofa. Pieter Groenewald of Freedom Front Plus has stated that they will awaken the case in the new parliament to demand accountability from Ramaphosa. Malema of the EFF will supporting the Phala Phala inquiry, and under a barrage of questions on the hidden money saga, Ramaphosa might not survive for long as president.
The seventh administration since 1994 will be a volatile and turbulent period for ANC in government and parliament. The period of looting in tranquillity for ANC is gone. Internally, ANC will have more friction with fewer jobs for pals.
This is going to be a turbulent period for ANC's internal politics, going down from 230 MPs in the last parliament to 159. That means 71 former MPs must look for jobs somewhere or prematurely must go on pension. The ANC cake is now small and can no longer feed as many as before. There is bound to be serious power struggle inside the ANC for the few available posts.
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At the end the solution to South African problem is a proper parliamentary electoral reform. We need to remove power from the party headquarters and transfer it to the citizens of the republic of South Africa, so that we choose individual MPs in constituencies who we can hold accountable. The tax payers who pay the salaries of these members of parliament must be allowed to directly elect them.
We, the citizens, must have the right to directly elect our president, our premiers and our mayors as well as MPs and provincial councillors. They must represent us as a minimum, since it is we the citizens who pay their salaries.
