Crime and punishment in contemporary South Africa II – From crime to crime reporting
2 June 2020
INTRODUCTION
Statistics South Africa’s Victims of Crime Survey yields estimates of crimes committed and crimes reported to the police. The latter estimates can be compared with the SAPS crime statistics to get a sense of the consistency of the two data sources. As was indicated in Brief 1, the precision of the VOCS estimates is imprecise, and attention here is confined to the crimes for which the imprecision is lowest: theft of motor vehicles, housebreaking/burglary, home robbery[1], assault and robbery outside the home. Averages for the years 2014/15, 2016/17 and 2017/18 are used in the analysis.
Table 1 sets out the comparison between the VOCS and SAPS estimates of crimes reported to the police.
Table 1
|
|
Theft of motor vehicle |
Housebreaking/ burglary |
Assault |
Home Robbery |
Robbery outside the home |
|
Crimes reported to the police |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SAPS |
53,020 |
242,821 |
331,568 |
21,628 |
189,417 |
|
VOCS |
45,080 |
363,475 |
148,587 |
86,307 |
98,726 |
|
Ratio of reported VOCS to SAPS |
0.85 |
1.50 |
0.45 |
3.99 |
0.52 |
|
All crimes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VOCS |
56,247 |
939,017 |
370,446 |
174,684 |
309,270 |
|
Ratio of all VOCS to SAPS |
1.06 |
3.87 |
1.12 |
8.08 |
1.63 |
Given sampling error the estimates indicate that the two sources are consistent for theft of motor vehicles, markedly less consistent for housebreaking/burglary, assaults and robbery outside the home[2], and highly inconsistent for home robbery. In the latter case, the discrepancy cries out for reconciliation. Either the VOCS samples greatly exaggerate home robbery, or the SAPS recording system is grossly inadequate. If the latter, people are a lot less safe in their homes than the SAPS crime statistics indicate. The VOCS estimate of all housebreakings/burglaries and home robberies is 1,113,701, more than four times the SAPS count. Taken together, the five crime categories account for 39% of all crimes reported by SAPS, an average of 838 454. The corresponding VOCS estimate is 2.2 timed higher.
REPORTING CRIMES TO THE POLICE
Table 2 sets out the pattern of reporting crimes to the police, and the reasons why households and individuals do not, as reported by the VOCS.
Table 2
|
|
Theft of motor vehicle |
Housebreaking/burglary |
Home robbery |
Robbery outside home |
Assault |
|
Whether reported |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
84% |
51% |
58% |
36% |
50% |
|
Not specified |
7% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
|
Reasons for not reporting |
|
|
|
|
|
|
* not serious enough |
2.0% |
3.4% |
3.9% |
4.3% |
10.1% |
|
* solved it myself/perpetrator known |
|
4.4% |
3.1% |
4.3% |
5.4% |
|
* inappropriate for police |
|
1.7% |
1.8% |
1.7% |
0.5% |
|
* reported it to other authorities |
0.9% |
3.1% |
1.5% |
1.0% |
5.9% |
|
* my family resolved it |
1.1% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
2.1% |
|
Subtotal: other resolution |
4.0% |
13.7% |
10.9% |
11.9% |
23.9% |
|
* no insurance |
1.0% |
13.6% |
7.2% |
14.0% |
4.8% |
|
Subtotal: no insurance |
1.0% |
13.6% |
7.2% |
14.0% |
4.8% |
|
* police could do nothing/lack of proof |
2.5% |
9.4% |
12.6% |
21.6% |
6.0% |
|
* police won’t do anything |
1.1% |
5.3% |
4.0% |
8.6% |
3.4% |
|
* no involvement wanted with the police |
|
2.6% |
0.8% |
1.2% |
3.4% |
|
* fear of reprisal |
0.3% |
1.8% |
2.5% |
2.8% |
5.1% |
|
Subtotal: police issues |
3.9% |
19.0% |
19.8% |
34.1% |
17.9% |
|
* other reasons |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4% |
2.0% |
1.6% |
|
Subtotal: other reasons |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4% |
2.0% |
1.6% |
|
All non-reported |
9% |
48% |
39% |
62% |
48% |
Table 2 shows that over 80% of motor vehicle thefts, just under 60% of home robberies[3], about half of housebreakings and assaults, and little more than a third of robberies outside the home are reported to the police. Nearly a quarter of assaults were not reported to the police as other means of resolution were used. Above 10% of housebreakings and robberies outside the home were not reported because victims had no insurance. Many of those who report these crimes do so simply because opening a docket is required to support an insurance claim. Nearly 20% of victims of housebreaking, home robbery and assault did not report crimes because of police issues, rising to just over a third in the case of robberies outside the home.
SATISFACTION WITH THE POLICE HANDLING OF REPORTED CRIMES
The percentages of households or individuals reporting crimes to the police who were satisfied with their treatment by the police were:
Theft of motor vehicles 46%
Housebreaking/burglary 37%
Home robbery 41%
Robbery outside the home 36%
Assault 52%
Further information is not available, but the data indicate that the interaction between complainants and police is more often unhappy than happy.
The next brief will consider crimes reported to SAPS, their detection rate and the submission of dockets by the police to the National Prosecuting Authority.
By Charles Simkins, Head of Research, HSF, 2 June 2020
[1] It should be noted that there are discrepancies between the VOCS estimates as published, and the VOCS estimates as derived from the VOCS data sets. On this, see the Excel worksheet containing all the data used in the briefs (click here). All estimates here are taken from the data sets.
[2] One reason for the discrepancy is that SAPS assault statistics are for all ages of victims, while VOCS assaults are only for assaults on persons 16 years or over.
[3] According to the VOCS, that is. But see Table 1 on the discrepancy between home robberies reported in the VOCS and those reported in the SAPS crime statistics.
