JAUNDICED EYE

This week, promising the African National Congress’s unwavering determination to “advance a more just and inclusive world order”, President Cyril Ramaphosa said in Parliament that South Africa’s “principled solidarity with peoples burdened under the yoke of oppression will not waver”. 

That’s an admirable undertaking, depending on how it is executed. One hopes that the ANC — as well as the opposition parties now forming part of the Government of National Unity (GNU) — weigh the likely effect of any crusades to liberate the world of supposed oppression will have on our relationship with the United States, South Africa’s second-biggest trading partner after China, as well as the European nations that for decades have been generous in terms of aid, trade and investment.___STEADY_PAYWALL___

If this “solidarity” means pandering to the same ugly array of rogue states that the previous ANC government embraced, not on the basis of the justness of their cause but as a quid pro quo for secret financial assistance to the ruling party, as is widely suspected in Western diplomatic circles, there will be disastrous consequences in the long term. The first wake-up call to Ramaphosa may come from the US.

Despite all the talk about the diminished influence of the USA in a multipolar world and the end of the American era, virtually every nation on earth is watching its presidential race with keen attention, trepidation, and hope. Even faltering giants — perhaps especially faltering giants — can cause foreign havoc.

Nothing has played out quite as it was scripted by the Democratic Party. President Joe Biden, it was assumed, would be able to sail to victory buoyed by all the benefits of incumbency, the overwhelming support of an obsequious mainstream media, and the obvious flaws of his enormously divisive challenger, Donald Trump, whom Biden had, in any case, beaten in 2020.

Instead, with under four months to go, Biden succumbed to the inevitable when you are a faltering, almost 82-year-old man and your every campaign appearance has become a publicly scored test of cognitive function. With the donors in revolt, the majority of Democrat voters sceptical of his lucidity, and his Republican opponent with a good polling lead in the key battleground states following an assassination attempt, Biden withdrew his candidacy.

Following Sunday’s terse announcement by Biden on X, while it is too early to be sure, the race appears to have shifted again. Democrat donors have reopened their wallets, the media has largely thrown its weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris, and she is polling nationally neck-to-neck with Trump. 

The final result matters for the entire world, not only the US. While Trump has never been the existential threat to international peace and prosperity, and the survival of US democracy, which he has been portrayed to be, there’s no doubt that America’s allies — and its enemies, except for Russia — would prefer a more predictable, less volatile person in the White House. Harris is not only the continuity candidate but in the opinion of America’s enemies also the less resolute and more malleable of the two.

The South African government, especially, will be on tenterhooks. From a historically pro-Western position, this country under successive ANC governments moved steadily to a (nominally) non-aligned stance. Under Ramaphosa, in the past couple of years, this has tilted further to unconcealed hostility towards the West. 

When pragmatic national self-interest in foreign policy is subjugated to purely ideologically driven choices, there is invariably a high cost for the country concerned. On the November 5 result hinges the price that South Africa may have to pay for its pivot towards Russia, China and Iran; its fraternal embrace of the terror organisation Hamas in Gaza and to a lesser extent Hezbollah in Lebanon; and its extreme enmity towards Israel.

A Democratic administration headed by Harris will be the ANC’s fervent hope. If she wins, political life here on the southern tip will continue as normal. There will be the occasional spat when the Harris presidency signals the limits of its tolerance of African fickleness, but any rebukes will be tempered by a willingness to continue the bribery — preferential trade agreements and, for the past 20 years, more than a third of a billion dollars annually for South Africa’s HIV/Aids programmes — that the US hopes will enable it to retain some influence on the continent’s diplomatic big hitter.

A Republic administration headed by Donald Trump is a different, bleaker scenario. Trump, at the very least, is far more difficult to predict — the single aspect of his character that most worries world leaders and, paradoxically, is perhaps his greatest advantage in international affairs. He undoubtedly will be less constrained by conventional views on race, ethnicity, and the underdeveloped world's penchant for seeking US aid while delighting in spitting in Uncle Sam’s eye. Remember Trump’s blanket dismissal of the “shitholes of Africa”?

Trump might well share the Russian view on what it would take to settle the Ukraine invasion but at the same time will increase pressure on China, especially as Xi Jinping tries to expand Chinese influence in Africa. And there can be little doubt that the ANC cosying up to terrorist organisations, as well as its ostentatious displays of solidarity with the likes of Syria, Iran, Yemen, Venezuela and Cuba, will likely elicit from Trump not bribery but retribution. The Republicans and Trump are also considerably more pro-Israel than the Democrats.

Fortunately, the ANC radicals are constrained by at least two factors. The first is the GNU.

According to an analysis by Peter Fabricius, Daily Maverick’s foreign policy specialist, the GNU has secured South Africa a “honeymoon period”, during which it can influence US legislators to allow it to retain the privileged access to American markets guaranteed to it by the US African Growth and Opportunity Act. Republicans in the US Congress, with the support of a small number of Democrats, have tabled legislation that would oblige the Biden administration to conduct a comprehensive review of US-SA bilateral relations. This would assess whether South Africa’s actions are undermining US national security and foreign policy interests.

Fabricius quotes an unnamed “Washington insider” as saying, “The concerns that exist about the ANC’s ties with Moscow, Beijing and Tehran and its consistent anti-Israel sentiment are strong and — pending a significant shift in foreign policy from Minister [Ronald] Lamola (which we do not expect) — will remain … If the GNU were to collapse these concerns would only be strengthened.”

The second dampener on the ANC is that its opportunistic embrace of an anti-Israel foreign policy not only failed to boost its vote in Muslim communities but seems to have cost it support. In the run-up to the May 29 election, the ANC leadership flaunted its pro-Hamas credentials: there was a flurry of visits by Hamas party officials; ANC ministers and functionaries took to wearing keffiyeh at every public opportunity; massive Palestinian flags were carried during rallies (while the South African flag was nowhere to be seen); and the chant “from the river to the sea” reverberated everywhere.

Contrary to the excitable predictions of the ANC and some commentators, this did not pay off in the Western Cape. Support for the Democratic Alliance, which held firm on its moderate position on the Israel-Palestine conflict and had bluntly told members who disagreed that they were “free to leave”, vote remained rock solid. Instead, it’s the ANC whose vote dropped by 9% and they lost four of the 12 seats they had held in the province. As tellingly, Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance, which is volubly pro-Israel, came out of nowhere to win 40% as many votes as the ANC.

The ANC’s determination to set South Africa on a radical foreign policy path has fortuitously become more difficult. This will leave the activists who dominate public debate grinding their teeth with frustration and, as a consequence, they will do everything they can to destroy the GNU.

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