JOHANNESBURG - Over the past year there has much whispered speculation that Jacob Zuma is in a weak position and will only be able to serve out one term as African National Congress president. One symptom of this perceived vulnerability is all the dark plotting and manoeuvring that is going on behind the scenes.

However, if one looks at the numbers on the ground Zuma's position appears to be far more secure.

According to the ANC Constitution the number of delegates to the national conference allocated to each province is fixed by the NEC in proportion to the paid up membership of each province. These delegates, nominated from branch level upwards, constitute at least 90% of the total. The other 10% are made up of NEC members and delegates from the ANCYL, ANCWL and Veteran's League.

What this means, in practice, is a major determinant of the outcome of the national conference election will be determined by the relative size of the provincial delegations. In November 2007 delegates from KwaZulu Natal made up just over sixteen percent of the total at Polokwane. This put it in second place, in terms of size, behind that of the Eastern Cape (23.2%). See Table 1. Zuma was able to triumph at Polokwane partly because his KZN base backed him as a bloc, while Mbeki's natural base in the Eastern Cape was far more divided.

Since then there has been a dramatic increase in paid membership in KwaZulu Natal. According to the organizational report delivered by Gwede Mantashe to the recent ANC National General Council the ANC's KZN membership increased from 102,742 in December 2007 to 192,618 in September 2010. This constitutes 69,8% of the total growth in ANC membership since Polokwane. KZN ANC members now make up 25,7% of the total, well ahead of the Eastern Cape (21,5%.) See Table 2.

If these proportions remain constant up until 2012 then over a quarter of ANC branch delegates at the next national conference will be from KwaZulu-Natal. It is probable that the KZN delegation will vote as a bloc for Zuma, as they did in 2007. What this means then is that any challenger would have to win the vote of 67% of the delegates from the other eight provinces to win a majority of branch delegates.

It is difficult to identify any ANC politician, or faction within the liberation movement, able to mobilise this level of support across the country. That is, unless Zulu hegemony provokes some kind of severe allergic reaction within the ANC.

Table 1: Nominations for ANC President at the provincial general councils, November 24-25 2010

ANC membership in December 2007 and September 2010 compared:

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